ONB in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Old National Bancorp serves businesses and individuals mainly in the U.S. Midwest and Southeast through Old National Bank and nonbank affiliates. The bank takes customer deposits and uses deposits and other funding to make loans and hold investment securities. Borrowers pay interest, and the interest left after funding costs supplies most of the group’s revenue. Customers also pay fees for banking, wealth management and investment services, a smaller part of the business.
Earnings depend on retaining deposits at manageable costs, the gap between lending and funding rates, and borrowers’ ability to repay. Commercial real estate makes up a substantial share of lending, so property income, values and business conditions in its regions matter particularly.
The parent company receives substantially all its own revenue through subsidiary dividends. Banking rules require regulatory capital and limit how much subsidiaries can pay the parent, restricting the cash available for its debt payments and shareholder distributions.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Wintrust Financial Corp competes directly with Old National for businesses borrowing money and customers placing deposits in Chicago, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana and Michigan.
First Merchants Corp competes with Old National across Indiana and Michigan for businesses seeking loans, customers placing deposits and clients paying for private-wealth services.
Associated Banc-Corp competes with Old National for long-term business banking relationships and customer deposits in their overlapping Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota markets.
Nicolet Bankshares,Inc. serves businesses and individuals in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota, overlapping Old National's Midwest banking markets and competing for those customer relationships.
U.S. Bancorp competes with Old National across Midwest markets for businesses seeking loans, consumers placing deposits and clients using wealth-management services.
PNC Financial Services Group's nationwide retail and corporate banking businesses compete with Old National for commercial loans, deposits and wealth-service clients. Watch PNC's deposit pricing and customer migration for a read on the competition Old National faces for funding.
F.N.B. Corp offers a comparison for Old National's lending and funding trends: both lend to regional businesses, take consumer deposits and provide wealth services. Watch F.N.B.'s business lending and deposit costs against the interest Old National earns from borrowers and pays to fund its loans.
UMB Financial Corp offers a comparison for Old National's acquisition integration and funding performance: both added large loan and deposit portfolios through acquisitions in 2025. Watch how UMB integrates Heartland Financial's loans and deposits alongside Old National's integration of Bremer.
SouthState Bank Corporation and Old National run similarly sized banks that use customer deposits to fund loans and earn interest and loan-related fees. SouthState's loan interest income and deposit interest expense offer a comparison for the gap between what Old National earns on loans and pays for funding.
United Community Banks, Inc. competes with Old National in Southeast markets, including Tennessee, for businesses seeking loans, customers placing deposits and wealth-management relationships.
Bank First Corporation competes with Old National in Wisconsin and Illinois for businesses borrowing money and customers placing deposits.
Northwest Bancshares, Inc competes with Old National for personal and commercial banking customers in Indiana, but puts more emphasis on residential lending.
United Bankshares Inc offers a comparison for Old National because both take deposits, lend to businesses and individuals, and earn fees from wealth services. Watch United's commercial lending and deposit costs to gauge the same lending and funding pressures at Old National.
Ameris Bancorp and Old National both rely heavily on loans to earn interest, making lending margins and commercial credit developments useful comparisons. Watch Ameris's loan interest income and commercial real estate credit news alongside Old National's lending earnings and credit-loss provisions.
Bank of America's nationwide retail and business banking operations compete with Old National for customer deposits, commercial loans and wealth clients. Its consumer and small-business banking and wealth-management results are the relevant areas to watch, rather than its trading business.
Bank First Corporation earningsBFC
Bank First's report will show how businesses are borrowing and customers are placing deposits in Wisconsin and Illinois, where it competes with Old National for those relationships.
Read commercial lending alongside deposit balances and deposit costs. Steady loan demand, retained deposits and contained costs would point to healthy local business relationships and a supportive funding backdrop for Old National. Slower lending or rising deposit costs would suggest weaker demand from the same customer base or more pressure to compete for funding.
Old National Bancorp earningsThis company
Old National earns most of its revenue from loan interest less the cost of deposits and other funding, and this report will show whether that income is holding up against credit costs.
Read net interest margin—the return on interest-earning assets after funding costs, relative to those assets—alongside the cost of interest-bearing liabilities. A stable or wider margin with funding costs contained means loan income is still covering deposit and borrowing costs; a narrowing margin means funding costs or asset yields are squeezing that income. Then compare credit-loss provisions with loan delinquencies and charge-offs: rising provisions alongside weaker loan performance would eat further into interest income, while stable provisions and loan quality would show that credit costs are not yet offsetting the core earnings.
SouthState Bank Corporation earningsSSB
SouthState's report will show loan interest income against deposit interest expense, giving Old National a read on the same lending and funding pressures.
Compare SouthState's loan interest income with its deposit interest expense and see whether the gap widens or narrows. A stable or wider gap suggests deposit costs are not materially eating into lending returns, a supportive reference for Old National; a narrowing gap points to funding costs squeezing those returns. The banks have different loan and deposit mixes, so this signals sector pressure, not Old National's own margin.
Ameris Bancorp earningsABCB
Ameris's lending and commercial real estate credit results will show whether a similar loan-heavy bank is seeing more borrower strain relevant to Old National.
Read Ameris's commercial real estate delinquencies or charge-offs alongside its credit-loss provisions. Stable loan performance without a marked rise in provisions would offer little sign of broadening stress among commercial property borrowers; rising delinquencies or charge-offs together with higher provisions would make the commercial real estate loans that form a large part of Old National's book more important to watch. The banks' borrowers and loan mixes differ, so this is not proof of losses at Old National.
UMB Financial Corp earningsUMBF
UMB Financial's report will show how it is integrating Heartland's acquired loans and deposits, offering a comparison with Old National's integration of Bremer.
Watch whether Heartland's acquired deposits remain, how their funding cost changes, and how integration expenses and acquired-loan performance develop. Retained deposits, contained costs and easing integration expenses would show the acquired assets and funding becoming part of normal operations; deposit losses or high integration costs would point to benefits being held back by funding pressure or the work of combining businesses. UMB acquired Heartland and Old National acquired Bremer, so this is a read on integration risks, not a result to apply directly to Old National.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Old National earns most of its revenue from the gap between interest on loans and securities and what it pays for deposits and borrowings, so Fed rate decisions can change both sides of that gap.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, costs on deposits and borrowings that reprice may climb, squeezing the bank’s interest income unless yields on its loans and securities rise enough to offset them.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall more than expected, funding costs may ease, but fixed-rate loan prepayments and higher cash flows from investments can lower asset yields and narrow the gap Old National earns.
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
Old National’s Midwest and Southeast commercial real estate borrowers rely on property income and business activity to repay loans, so the jobs report tracks conditions that can strengthen or weaken their ability to pay.
Stronger employment can support local business activity and property income, helping Old National’s borrowers repay; weaker employment can strain those sources and increase repayment risk and credit-loss costs.