Stock daily read

What happened with ONB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ONB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Old National Bancorp serves businesses and individuals mainly in the U.S. Midwest and Southeast through Old National Bank and nonbank affiliates. The bank takes customer deposits and uses deposits and other funding to make loans and hold investment securities. Borrowers pay interest, and the interest left after funding costs supplies most of the group’s revenue. Customers also pay fees for banking, wealth management and investment services, a smaller part of the business.

Earnings depend on retaining deposits at manageable costs, the gap between lending and funding rates, and borrowers’ ability to repay. Commercial real estate makes up a substantial share of lending, so property income, values and business conditions in its regions matter particularly.

The parent company receives substantially all its own revenue through subsidiary dividends. Banking rules require regulatory capital and limit how much subsidiaries can pay the parent, restricting the cash available for its debt payments and shareholder distributions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ONB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ONB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Wintrust Financial Corp competes directly with Old National for businesses borrowing money and customers placing deposits in Chicago, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana and Michigan.

  • First Merchants Corp competes with Old National across Indiana and Michigan for businesses seeking loans, customers placing deposits and clients paying for private-wealth services.

  • Associated Banc-Corp competes with Old National for long-term business banking relationships and customer deposits in their overlapping Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota markets.

  • Nicolet Bankshares,Inc. serves businesses and individuals in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota, overlapping Old National's Midwest banking markets and competing for those customer relationships.

  • U.S. Bancorp competes with Old National across Midwest markets for businesses seeking loans, consumers placing deposits and clients using wealth-management services.

  • PNC Financial Services Group's nationwide retail and corporate banking businesses compete with Old National for commercial loans, deposits and wealth-service clients. Watch PNC's deposit pricing and customer migration for a read on the competition Old National faces for funding.

  • F.N.B. Corp offers a comparison for Old National's lending and funding trends: both lend to regional businesses, take consumer deposits and provide wealth services. Watch F.N.B.'s business lending and deposit costs against the interest Old National earns from borrowers and pays to fund its loans.

  • UMB Financial Corp offers a comparison for Old National's acquisition integration and funding performance: both added large loan and deposit portfolios through acquisitions in 2025. Watch how UMB integrates Heartland Financial's loans and deposits alongside Old National's integration of Bremer.

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  • SouthState Bank Corporation and Old National run similarly sized banks that use customer deposits to fund loans and earn interest and loan-related fees. SouthState's loan interest income and deposit interest expense offer a comparison for the gap between what Old National earns on loans and pays for funding.

  • United Community Banks, Inc. competes with Old National in Southeast markets, including Tennessee, for businesses seeking loans, customers placing deposits and wealth-management relationships.

  • Bank First Corporation competes with Old National in Wisconsin and Illinois for businesses borrowing money and customers placing deposits.

  • Northwest Bancshares, Inc competes with Old National for personal and commercial banking customers in Indiana, but puts more emphasis on residential lending.

  • United Bankshares Inc offers a comparison for Old National because both take deposits, lend to businesses and individuals, and earn fees from wealth services. Watch United's commercial lending and deposit costs to gauge the same lending and funding pressures at Old National.

  • Ameris Bancorp and Old National both rely heavily on loans to earn interest, making lending margins and commercial credit developments useful comparisons. Watch Ameris's loan interest income and commercial real estate credit news alongside Old National's lending earnings and credit-loss provisions.

  • Bank of America's nationwide retail and business banking operations compete with Old National for customer deposits, commercial loans and wealth clients. Its consumer and small-business banking and wealth-management results are the relevant areas to watch, rather than its trading business.

Agenda

tomorrowTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    Bank First Corporation earningsBFC

    Bank First's report will show how businesses are borrowing and customers are placing deposits in Wisconsin and Illinois, where it competes with Old National for those relationships.

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Old National Bancorp earningsThis company

    Old National earns most of its revenue from loan interest less the cost of deposits and other funding, and this report will show whether that income is holding up against credit costs.

  2. Time to be announced

    SouthState Bank Corporation earningsSSB

    SouthState's report will show loan interest income against deposit interest expense, giving Old National a read on the same lending and funding pressures.

in 3 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Ameris Bancorp earningsABCB

    Ameris's lending and commercial real estate credit results will show whether a similar loan-heavy bank is seeing more borrower strain relevant to Old National.

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    UMB Financial Corp earningsUMBF

    UMB Financial's report will show how it is integrating Heartland's acquired loans and deposits, offering a comparison with Old National's integration of Bremer.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Old National earns most of its revenue from the gap between interest on loans and securities and what it pays for deposits and borrowings, so Fed rate decisions can change both sides of that gap.

in 18 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)

    Old National’s Midwest and Southeast commercial real estate borrowers rely on property income and business activity to repay loans, so the jobs report tracks conditions that can strengthen or weaken their ability to pay.