Stock daily read

What happened with NIC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NIC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Nicolet Bankshares serves owner-managed businesses, their owners and local residents through Nicolet National Bank. Its markets are mainly Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa. The completed acquisition of MidWestOne Financial Group expanded its presence into Iowa and Denver, Colorado. Business lending is central to its operations, including loans for commercial property, agriculture and construction; it also provides home loans and deposit accounts to individuals.

Customer deposits supply much of the money used to fund loans and investments. Borrowers pay interest, and the bank earns investment interest while paying interest on deposits and other borrowings. The difference supplies most of its revenue. Deposit services, wealth management and sales of residential mortgages provide additional income.

The business depends on retaining deposits at a cost that leaves room for that interest spread and on borrowers repaying their loans. Its concentration in business lending and regional markets ties it closely to local business conditions. Banking capital requirements can constrain lending, deposit growth and acquisitions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NIC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NIC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Bank First Corporation competes with Nicolet for Wisconsin businesses needing loans and households needing banking services, with both seeking deposits through long-term customer relationships. Watch Bank First’s deposit pricing: it tailors rates to compete in its local markets.

  • Mercantile Bank Corp competes with Nicolet in Michigan to lend to small businesses, finance commercial properties and take customer deposits. Watch its commercial loan pricing, where it uses floating rates or rates based on funding costs and borrower credit quality.

  • Old National Bancorp competes with Nicolet for business borrowers and deposits in Wisconsin and Minnesota; its acquisition of Bremer strengthens that overlap.

  • Michigan-based Independent Bank Corp. competes with Nicolet for loans and deposits from businesses and households in Michigan.

  • U.S. Bancorp, through U.S. Bank, competes with Nicolet for business loans, household deposits and customers seeking wealth services across Wisconsin, Minnesota and other Upper Midwest markets.

  • WesBanco Inc competes with Nicolet for Michigan individuals and businesses using banking, mortgage and wealth services. Watch its trust and investment services business, which manages assets for customers rather than holding those assets on its own balance sheet.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Nicolet Bankshares,Inc. earningsThis company

    Nicolet Bankshares has a larger loan and deposit base after combining with MidWestOne; this report will show whether it can earn more interest income without credit costs rising.

  2. Time to be announced

    Mercantile Bank Corp earningsMBWM

    Mercantile Bank Corp's report will show whether Michigan businesses and commercial-property borrowers accept loan pricing that covers banks' funding costs and credit risk, a test for Nicolet Bankshares' similar lending.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Nicolet’s net interest income depends on the spread between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits and borrowings, which changes as rates move and each reprices.