Stock daily read

What happened with BFC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BFC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Bank First Corporation owns Bank First, N.A., which serves individuals and small- to medium-sized businesses in Wisconsin and Illinois through branches and digital banking. It lends to businesses for working capital and property, and to individuals for homes and other needs. Customer deposits provide most of the funding. Borrowers pay interest, and the bank earns most of its revenue from interest on loans and investments after subtracting its funding costs. It also earns service charges and income from selling mortgages and continuing to service those loans.

Most loans are secured by real estate, with commercial real estate the largest lending category. The business therefore depends heavily on local borrowers’ ability to repay and on property values, especially in Wisconsin. Retaining deposits at competitive rates also matters: replacing lost deposits with more expensive funding reduces the interest spread.

The parent company receives most of its cash from dividends paid by the bank. Banking rules require adequate capital and limit those payments based on profits and financial condition; some dividends require regulatory approval.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BFC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BFC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • First Mid Bancshares, Inc. competes with Bank First for business borrowers and depositors in Wisconsin and Illinois. Commercial property lending matters to both, so First Mid’s results in that loan book are worth watching alongside Bank First’s.

  • Mercantile Bank Corp offers a Michigan comparison for Wisconsin-focused Bank First: both use customer deposits to lend to smaller businesses and commercial property borrowers through local relationships. Watch Mercantile’s business lending and deposit costs for a comparison with Bank First’s lending income.

  • Independent Bank Corp. and Bank First both rely heavily on lending, in Michigan and Wisconsin respectively, so the gap between interest earned and funding costs matters to both. Independent’s lending spreads and regional borrowers’ ability to repay offer a comparison for Bank First’s earnings.

  • Byline Bancorp, Inc. and Bank First share exposure to Illinois business and property borrowing: both lend to smaller businesses and commercial property borrowers while gathering deposits through customer relationships. Watch Byline’s ability to attract low-cost deposits through its Chicago-area branches as a comparison for Bank First’s funding costs.

  • First Merchants Corp and Bank First both earn from business, consumer and home lending in neighboring Midwestern economies, with interest earned less interest paid—net interest income—central to earnings. First Merchants’ net interest income is the revenue line to compare with Bank First’s.

  • First Financial Corporation offers a comparison for Bank First’s Midwestern business and home lending, with both serving borrowers in Illinois. Its business lending and mortgage results are the relevant parts to watch, rather than treating its wider footprint as a match for Bank First’s markets.

  • First Financial Bancorp and Bank First both use customer deposits to fund loans to businesses and households in Midwestern markets, including Illinois. First Financial’s deposit pricing and business lending provide a comparison for Bank First’s funding costs and loan income.

  • OceanFirst Financial Corp and Bank First both depend heavily on commercial and residential property borrowers, making property credit conditions important to their earnings. Watch OceanFirst’s commercial property investor loans, including multifamily and construction, for a comparison with the property risks in Bank First’s loan book.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Bank First Corporation earningsThis company

    Bank First earns mainly from interest on loans and investments funded largely by deposits, and its report will show whether funding costs or loan losses are squeezing that income.

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    First Merchants Corp earningsFRME

    First Merchants’ net interest income will show whether lending income is still covering funding costs in a neighboring Midwestern market, a comparison for Bank First’s core interest earnings.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Byline Bancorp, Inc. earningsBY

    Byline Bancorp’s deposit results will show what it costs to attract funds in the Chicago area, a comparison for Bank First’s deposit competition in Illinois.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    OceanFirst Financial Corp earningsOCFC

    OceanFirst Financial’s commercial property loans will show how multifamily and construction borrowers are faring, a comparison for Bank First’s substantial commercial real estate book.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Bank First, the Fed’s policy rate—the rate that guides borrowing costs across the economy—can change what the bank earns on loans and investments and pays for deposits, as well as demand for its loans and income from servicing mortgages.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    First Mid Bancshares, Inc. earningsFMBH

    First Mid Bancshares’ commercial property lending in Wisconsin and Illinois will show what conditions look like in markets where it competes with Bank First for business borrowers.