FRME in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with FRME today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
First Merchants Corp serves businesses and individuals through its wholly owned First Merchants Bank in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. The bank takes customer deposits and uses deposits and other funding to make loans and hold investments. Borrowers pay interest, and investments also generate interest income; the bank keeps what remains after paying interest to depositors and other lenders. It also provides mortgage and personal wealth-management services through branches and digital channels.
Business lending accounts for most of its loan portfolio, with substantial exposure to residential and commercial property landlords. The business depends on borrowers in its regional markets being able to repay, retaining deposits, and the gap between lending and investment yields and funding costs.
The parent company receives substantially all its cash from subsidiary dividends. Banking regulations limit how much the bank can pass up to the parent, while regulatory capital requirements constrain operations and distributions.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
First Financial Bancorp competes with First Merchants for business borrowers, household deposits and wealth-management clients in Indiana and Ohio. Watch its commercial lending and deposit growth in those markets for signs of pressure on First Merchants’ customer base.
German American Bancorp competes with First Merchants for deposits, business borrowers and household banking customers in Indiana and Ohio, using public deposits to fund local loans. Its Heartland Bank business in Columbus and Greater Cincinnati is worth watching for competition over those Ohio customers.
Northwest Bancshares competes with First Merchants for personal and business deposits and loans in Indiana and Ohio. Its bank uses those deposits to help fund home, consumer and business loans, so watch the interest it pays depositors as a sign of competition for funding.
Independent Bank Corp. competes with First Merchants for business and household banking customers in Michigan.
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation and First Merchants serve overlapping Ohio markets, competing to provide banking services to businesses and consumers.
S&T Bancorp competes with First Merchants for Ohio business and household customers through deposits, loans and wealth services. Its focus on individuals and small and medium-sized businesses makes growth in those customer groups more relevant than wins with large corporations.
First Busey Corporation and First Merchants share exposure to Midwestern business lending: both earn from the gap between loan interest and funding costs, while property-related loan performance also matters to earnings.
Regions Financial competes with First Merchants for business loans, deposits and retail banking customers in Indiana, but its much broader southern banking footprint makes it a less local comparison.
First Merchants Corp earningsThis company
First Merchants' report will show whether loan income can outpace deposit costs and leave more interest income from its banking business.
Read net interest income, net interest margin and loan-loss provisions together. Net interest margin is the yield on interest-earning assets minus funding costs. Rising income with a stable or wider margin and no sharp increase in provisions would show that lending returns are keeping pace with deposit costs. If income rises while the margin narrows or provisions jump, volume is masking weaker returns per dollar or mounting borrower stress.
S&T Bancorp Inc earningsSTBA
S&T Bancorp's report will show whether households and small businesses are still borrowing from and placing deposits with rival banks in Ohio, where First Merchants competes for those customers.
Read S&T's household and small-business loan growth alongside its deposit growth. Strength in both would point to active demand and a rival gathering funds; it would not prove that customers left First Merchants. Weak growth in both would mean less evidence of competitive pressure on First Merchants.
Northwest Bancshares, Inc earningsNWBI
Northwest Bancshares' report will show whether banks are paying more to retain personal and business deposits, a signal of the funding-cost pressure facing First Merchants.
Read Northwest's deposit costs alongside deposit growth. Rising costs with little deposit growth would mean banks are paying more without gathering much additional funding, a warning for First Merchants' funding costs; stable costs with growing deposits would point to less pressure. Deposit mixes differ, so the cost figures are not directly interchangeable.
First Busey Corporation earningsBUSE
First Busey's report will show whether property-linked business loans are seeing more repayment trouble across a Midwestern bank, a relevant credit-risk signal for First Merchants.
Watch First Busey's commercial-property loan performance alongside its loan-loss provisions. More troubled loans and higher provisions would suggest that similar borrowers or collateral conditions could raise First Merchants' credit costs; stable or improving measures would mean less evidence of broad stress, not proof that First Merchants' own loans are safe.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For First Merchants, the Fed’s rate decision matters because it can change what the Bank earns on loans and other assets versus what it pays depositors and other funders, affecting net interest income.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, First Merchants Bank may pay more to retain deposits and other funding before yields on its loans and assets catch up, squeezing the income left after interest costs.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall more than expected, lower costs to retain deposits and other funding may outpace declines in loan and asset yields, leaving more net interest income for the Bank.