UMBF in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with UMBF today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
UMB Financial Corp serves businesses, institutions and individuals, primarily in the Midwestern, Southwestern and Western United States. Deposits supply most of the money it lends and invests. Small and middle-market businesses use its loans to finance operations and commercial property; business and commercial real estate loans dominate its lending. Borrowers pay interest, while investment securities provide another important source of interest income.
The company also earns fees for looking after clients’ investments and handling financial administration. UMBFS administers and keeps accounts for mutual funds and alternative investment groups, while other operations provide trust, custody and wealth-management services. These services are an important second revenue source, with fees often linked to the value of client assets.
The business depends on the gap between asset yields and funding costs. Its funding leans heavily on commercial and institutional deposits, whose customers tend to be more sensitive to deposit rates than consumers. Borrowers’ ability to repay, particularly in commercial real estate, also matters. Banking capital requirements constrain how much the company can expand lending.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Commerce Bancshares Inc competes directly with UMB Financial Corp for Missouri and Kansas businesses’ loans, deposits and payments, and for clients’ wealth-management relationships.
U.S. Bancorp competes with UMB Financial Corp to lend to businesses, manage their cash and provide trust services, while also safeguarding institutional assets and handling funds’ accounts and administration. Its fund-administration business is worth watching alongside UMB’s services for mutual funds and alternative investment groups.
Wintrust Financial Corp and UMB Financial Corp have similarly sized banking businesses that take deposits and lend to small and midsized companies, making Midwestern business loan demand, deposit costs and credit quality useful comparisons. Watch Wintrust’s business lending and the rates it pays to attract deposits.
Old National Bancorp offers a comparison for UMB Financial Corp’s acquisition-led growth: both regional banks use customer deposits to fund loans, and recent acquisitions materially affect their growth and integration costs.
First Horizon Corporation competes with UMB Financial Corp for business and specialty loans, clients buying or selling fixed-income investments, and wealth-management business. Its specialty lending spans multiple regions or the nation, so those loans matter beyond its southern U.S. branch markets.
Associated Banc-Corp competes with UMB Financial Corp for business and household loans, deposits and banking services in Missouri and the broader Midwest. Watch the rates Associated pays depositors and charges borrowers, which it identifies as key ways to retain and win customers.
SouthState Bank Corporation competes with UMB Financial Corp for Colorado loans and deposits; both run similarly sized banks that use deposits to fund lending. SouthState’s interest expense on customer deposits provides a concrete comparison for UMB’s funding costs.
FirstSun Capital Bancorp, through Sunflower Bank, competes with UMB Financial Corp for business loans and deposits in Kansas, Colorado and other overlapping central and western U.S. markets.
Community Financial System, Inc., through BPAS, competes with UMB Financial Corp to provide institutional trust services, administer funds, maintain investor ownership records and service health savings accounts. BPAS’s fund administration and health savings account business is the relevant comparison for UMB’s institutional services, rather than its local bank branches.
Huntington Bancshares Inc and UMB Financial Corp both lend to businesses and help manage their cash and payments, alongside consumer banking and wealth management, so business loan demand, deposit pricing and credit quality offer useful comparisons. Huntington’s Commercial Banking segment is the clearest place to watch those business-customer trends.
Regions Financial Corp. competes with UMB Financial Corp for business and consumer customers in overlapping Midwestern markets, offering business loans, deposit accounts and wealth services.
Commerce Bancshares Inc earningsCBSH
Commerce Bancshares Inc's report will show whether businesses and households in Missouri and Kansas are still borrowing and depositing money, and whether banks must pay more to keep those deposits.
Read Commerce Bancshares' lending activity alongside the cost of its deposits. Steady lending without rising deposit costs would suggest Missouri and Kansas customers are still borrowing and saving, while pressure to win deposits remains contained—a more supportive setting for UMB. Weaker lending alongside higher deposit costs would point to softer demand or banks paying up for funds, pressures that could also weigh on UMB's lending and margin.
Old National Bancorp earningsONB
Old National Bancorp's report will show whether acquired businesses are retaining deposits as integration costs ease, a useful comparison for UMB's integration of HTLF.
Read deposit trends alongside acquisition-related integration costs. Retained deposits and easing costs would suggest the acquired business is settling in and its funding can support lending. Deposit losses or costs that remain high would point to customer-retention or integration hurdles, making UMB's expected growth and savings from HTLF harder to achieve.
SouthState Bank Corporation earningsSSB
SouthState Bank's report will show whether banks are paying more to retain customer deposits, offering a concrete comparison for UMB's funding costs.
Compare SouthState Bank's interest expense on customer deposits with the size of its deposit base. If expense rises faster than deposits, the bank is paying more to keep its funding, a pressure that could raise UMB's costs and squeeze its margin. Slower growth or a decline would suggest less pressure. The banks differ in size and business mix, so compare the direction of change, not the dollar totals.
Huntington Bancshares Inc earningsHBAN
Huntington Bancshares' Commercial Banking results will show how business loan demand and credit quality are holding up, a reference point for UMB's business customers.
Look at Huntington's commercial loan activity alongside delinquencies or other credit-quality indicators. Loan growth with stable credit quality would suggest businesses are still borrowing and generally repaying, a supportive demand and credit backdrop for UMB's commercial lending. Weaker lending or deteriorating credit would point to softer business demand or repayment capacity, which could also pressure UMB's business borrowers.
UMB Financial Corp earningsThis company
UMB Financial's report will show whether it can turn the deposits gained with HTLF into loan income without deposit costs eating away at its lending margin.
Read deposit trends alongside net interest margin: interest earned on loans and securities, less the cost of deposits and other funding, measured against interest-earning assets. If deposits hold and the margin stays firm, the larger funding base is supporting profitable lending. If deposits shrink or the margin narrows, funding is harder or more expensive to retain, and the added scale is translating less well into spread income.
Community Financial System, Inc. earningsCBU
Community Financial System's report will show demand for fund administration and health savings account services through BPAS, which competes with UMB's institutional trust and securities-processing business.
Watch the fund-services activity or revenue Community Financial System reports. Growth would suggest institutional clients are still buying fund administration and related services, leaving UMB's trust, custody and securities-processing business in a market with demand as well as competition. Weakness would point to a softer market, but would not prove UMB is losing clients.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
UMB Financial earns income from loans and securities after paying for deposits and other funding, so the Fed’s decisions about short-term interest rates can change both what it earns and what it pays.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher-than-expected rates can lift returns on loans and securities as they reprice, but may also raise deposit and other funding costs; the effect on UMB’s net interest income depends on which adjusts faster.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower-than-expected rates can reduce returns as loans and securities reprice, while also easing deposit and other funding costs; UMB’s net interest income depends on which side adjusts faster.