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What happened with SDGR today?

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SDGR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Schrödinger helps researchers evaluate and design molecules before making and testing them in a laboratory. Its software combines physics-based simulation with machine learning to predict molecular properties; its FEP+ product predicts how strongly a drug molecule binds to its target. Biopharmaceutical and industrial companies, universities and government laboratories pay to use the software, usually under annual agreements that allow a specified volume of calculations. Software supplies most revenue, with demand leaning heavily on biopharmaceutical customers and continued license renewals.

The company also uses its platform to design drug candidates for pharmaceutical partners. These collaborations pay for research and can provide upfront fees, payments when programs reach agreed milestones, and royalties if resulting drugs are sold. Novartis collaboration work is an important contributor to this business. After a candidate is identified under that agreement, Novartis takes responsibility for further development, manufacturing and commercialization. Future milestone and royalty income depends on partners advancing the programs, not just on Schrödinger completing its research. The Novartis agreement also restricts Schrödinger from pursuing the collaboration’s targets independently or with others for specified periods, subject to exceptions.

Schrödinger develops its own drug candidates too, but has no approved drugs and earns no revenue from its own drug sales. It plans to finish ongoing early-stage trials and seek partnerships to advance those programs, rather than independently start additional clinical trials.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SDGR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

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Moat

SDGR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Schrödinger’s largely software-driven results depend on biopharma adopting molecular modeling over rivals such as BIOVIA, alongside discovery partners including Otsuka successfully developing drugs.

  • Recursion Pharmaceuticals competes with Schrödinger in using computational platforms to discover medicines for their own pipelines and for partners. Its clinical progress with MALT1 inhibitors is the most direct comparison for Schrödinger’s SGR-1505, being developed for relapsed or refractory B-cell cancers.

  • Certara competes with Schrödinger for biopharma R&D customers buying modeling software and related services. Watch its life-sciences software business rather than treating its consulting work on clinical trials and regulatory submissions as a direct match for Schrödinger’s molecular-design tools.

  • Novartis pays Schrödinger for expanded software access and multi-program drug discovery, including a $150 million upfront payment received in January 2025. Novartis takes over further development and commercialization once a candidate is identified; progress in these programs matters for future milestones and sales royalties, with no milestone revenue recognized through December 31, 2025.

  • Lilly controls the development that could turn Schrödinger’s small-molecule discovery work on two targets into milestone payments and royalties on drug sales. Schrödinger discovers and optimizes compounds for the original immunology target, while Lilly handles preclinical and clinical development and commercialization; a second, undisclosed target was added in February 2025.

  • Bristol Myers Squibb pays for and advances medicines discovered with Schrödinger, taking on further development, manufacturing and commercialization costs after a qualifying candidate is identified. After BMS dropped certain targets, one neurology target remained at December 31, 2025, making its progress the focus for Schrödinger’s remaining milestone and sales-royalty opportunity.

  • Structure Therapeutics’ discovery collaboration can bring Schrödinger research funding, milestone payments or drug-sales royalties, while Schrödinger also held a 1.6% ownership stake at December 31, 2025. Structure develops oral small-molecule medicines, but collaborator-controlled progress means payments to Schrödinger are not assured.

  • Evotec competes with Schrödinger for pharmaceutical partners paying others to discover small molecules and perform preclinical research. Its Discovery & Preclinical Development business is the relevant comparison, rather than its separate biologics manufacturing business.

  • AbCellera competes with Schrödinger in discovering drugs for biopharma partners that pay for research and may later pay milestones and sales royalties, although AbCellera focuses on antibodies rather than small molecules. Its partner drugs reaching clinical development and commercialization show how this payment model can progress beyond early research fees.

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  • Relay Therapeutics and Schrödinger both use computational insights into molecular structure and movement to discover small-molecule medicines. Relay’s clinical results matter as evidence of whether that approach translates into medicines that work in patients.

  • Revvity competes with Schrödinger in selling simulation, modeling and enterprise software to life-sciences researchers. Watch its Life Sciences software offerings: its substantial diagnostics business serves hospitals and laboratories and is a different business from Schrödinger’s research software.

  • Cadence competes with Schrödinger through molecular-modeling and simulation tools sold to pharmaceutical and biotechnology drug-discovery teams. Those offerings are the part to watch, not Cadence’s much larger business selling design tools to semiconductor and electronics companies.

  • Zentalis Pharmaceuticals’ investigational cancer drug azenosertib competes with Schrödinger’s SGR-3515 through inhibition of WEE1. Azenosertib’s clinical progress is the relevant comparison for Schrödinger’s program in advanced solid tumors.

  • Aprea Therapeutics’ APR-1051 competes with Schrödinger’s SGR-3515 as a clinical-stage cancer drug that inhibits WEE1. Watch APR-1051’s trial progress, rather than Aprea’s other cancer programs, for the direct comparison.

  • Acrivon Therapeutics competes with Schrödinger’s SGR-3515 in solid tumors through a clinical-stage drug that inhibits both WEE1 and MYT1. Progress with that dual inhibitor is the relevant comparison, rather than Acrivon’s broader precision-medicine platform.

  • Sanofi controls collaborative programs built on Schrödinger’s drug-discovery work, which can earn research funding, milestone payments and royalties on future drug sales. For this medicines-and-vaccines company, progress in those specific collaborations—not its broader vaccine sales—is what bears on Schrödinger’s potential payments.

Agenda

in 7 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    Cadence Design Systems earningsCDNS

    Cadence’s molecular-modeling and simulation business will show how drug-discovery teams are spending on computational tools, a signal for the market Schrödinger sells into.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Schrodinger, Inc. earningsThis company

    Schrödinger’s report will show whether software renewals and hosted subscriptions can sustain growth, and whether collaboration revenue comes with a wider drug-discovery loss.