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What happened with RXRX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
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The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Investment outlook

RXRX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Recursion Pharmaceuticals helps pharmaceutical partners identify drug targets and design potential medicines while also developing its own drug candidates. Its Recursion OS links laboratory experiments with computational models: experimental results improve the models, and the models guide the next experiments and molecule designs.

Research collaborations supply most of its revenue. Partners including Roche and Genentech and Sanofi pay upfront for discovery work and access to its capabilities; agreements can bring further payments as partners select programs and research or development reaches agreed milestones. Recursion may also earn royalties if partnered medicines reach the market and sell. Roche and Genentech's collaboration represents a large share of its potential downstream value, and partners control the resources they commit to advancing their programs.

Recursion is still a clinical-stage biotechnology company with no approved products or drug-sales revenue. It retains commercial rights to some candidates and may eventually sell approved medicines itself or with partners, but it currently has no sales or distribution capabilities. Turning those candidates into products requires successful clinical trials and regulatory approval.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RXRX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

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Moat

RXRX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

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Related companies

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  • Supplier
  • Customer

Recursion’s results hinge on clinical progress and delivery for discovery partners, notably Roche and Genentech, which are absent from this list but contribute material revenue and potential milestone payments.

  • Schrodinger, Inc. competes with Recursion to help biopharmaceutical companies discover drugs computationally, selling software while Recursion builds drug pipelines for partners. Its software revenue from pharmaceutical customers is a useful comparison for adoption of computational discovery, rather than a direct measure of Recursion’s milestone income.

  • Sanofi pays Recursion to discover small-molecule medicines, making progress in their joint programs a source of potential milestone payments and eventual sales royalties. Watch those programs rather than Sanofi’s broader vaccine business: a full year of partnership revenue helped drive Recursion’s 2025 revenue increase.

  • Relay Therapeutics, Inc. competes with Recursion in computationally designed small-molecule medicines and in licensing drug programs to pharmaceutical partners. Both seek payments from drugmakers for rights to develop their programs.

  • Recursion pays Tempus AI for access to de-identified clinical and molecular patient records used to train drug-discovery models and support medicine development. Those records are also a substantial cost: Recursion attributed $49.9 million of its 2025 R&D expense increase to Tempus record purchases.

  • AbCellera Biologics Inc. competes with Recursion for pharmaceutical partnerships that pay for drug research, progress milestones and potential royalties, but specializes in antibodies. Its partner-developed molecules reaching clinical trials show whether that discovery model is moving beyond research payments toward later-stage returns.

  • Absci Corporation and Recursion both need AI-designed medicines to prove themselves in experiments and attract pharmaceutical partners, although Absci focuses on antibodies and Recursion on small molecules. Absci’s progress from lab-tested designs into clinical development or licensing deals offers a comparison for that path.

  • Evotec SE competes with Recursion for pharmaceutical partners paying for drug-discovery research that combines biology, chemistry and computation. Its Discovery & Preclinical Development revenue is the closer comparison for Recursion’s research-service business, rather than its separate biologics-manufacturing segment.

  • Biodexa Pharmaceuticals plc’s eRapa could compete with Recursion’s REC-4881 for patients with familial adenomatous polyposis, so its clinical results matter to the same prospective treatment market. Neither candidate is an established revenue stream; Biodexa reported no revenue in 2025.

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  • Recursion relies on NVIDIA’s GPU systems and computing platform to power BioHive and collaborates with it on biological and chemical AI models. Watch the BioHive and DGX Cloud collaboration for Recursion’s computing capabilities, rather than treating NVIDIA’s overall chip sales as a measure of drug-development progress.

  • Generate Biomedicines, Inc. offers a comparison for whether computationally designed medicines can succeed clinically: both it and Recursion feed large-scale experimental results back into their models, but Generate develops proteins rather than small molecules. Generate had no candidate approved for sale as of its prospectus, leaving clinical validation—not established product sales—the relevant watchpoint.

  • Recursion’s REC-4881 depends on compound and intellectual-property rights licensed from Takeda, which receives payments rather than funding this program. Development and regulatory progress can trigger up to $39.5 million in payments to Takeda, with additional royalties if the drug reaches commercial sales.

  • Lantern Pharma Inc. offers a comparison for Recursion’s AI-guided small-molecule cancer development and pursuit of pharmaceutical licensing partners. Watch clinical progress in Lantern’s LP-300, LP-184 and LP-284 and whether it secures licensing deals; it has no sales or distribution capabilities of its own.

Agenda

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    Sanofi earningsSNY

    Sanofi's report can show how its small-molecule programs with Recursion are progressing, a path to potential milestone payments and sales royalties for Recursion.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earningsThis company

    Recursion earns mainly from drug-company collaborations, and this report will show whether that revenue is keeping pace with the cost of providing research services and the cash those services consume.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Evotec SE earningsEVO

    Evotec SE's report on Discovery & Preclinical Development revenue shows whether drugmakers are buying outsourced research—and how much competition Recursion may face for that work.

  2. Time to be announced

    Relay Therapeutics, Inc. earningsRLAY

    Relay Therapeutics' report can show whether drugmakers are advancing or licensing computationally designed small-molecule programs, a route to partner payments that Recursion also pursues.