LLY in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with LLY today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Eli Lilly’s business centers on medicines for cardiometabolic health, with Mounjaro and Zepbound together generating most of its revenue. Zepbound is marketed for obesity. Lilly also sells medicines for cancer, immune conditions and neurological diseases.
Most products reach pharmacies, healthcare professionals and hospitals through wholesalers. McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health each account for a substantial share of Lilly’s revenue. Insurers and government healthcare programs influence which medicines patients can obtain and negotiate discounts or rebates that reduce what Lilly earns from sales. Patients also pay themselves, including through LillyDirect, where third-party pharmacies dispense selected Lilly medicines. This route matters for obesity medicines because some payers do not cover weight-loss treatment.
The business depends on maintaining access and payment coverage for its leading medicines, supplying them reliably, and developing or acquiring new medicines as older products lose market exclusivity. Patent protection helps preserve that exclusivity, while new medicines need regulatory approval before reaching the market. Adding manufacturing capacity also requires regulatory approvals and takes substantial time. Government rules constrain pricing: the United States sets Medicare prices for selected medicines, and many other markets impose price controls or other limits on drug spending.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Lilly’s results hinge chiefly on demand for and access to diabetes and obesity medicines, while privately held Boehringer Ingelheim, its important Jardiance partner, is absent from this list.
Novo Nordisk is Lilly’s main rival in selling diabetes and obesity medicines, so demand, pricing and market-share news matters directly to Lilly. Watch Wegovy’s US prescriptions: it lost its lead in weekly obesity-drug prescriptions in early 2025, while Mounjaro and Zepbound supplied 56% of Lilly’s 2025 revenue.
Amgen’s MariTide obesity-drug development program targets the market driving Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound growth. Its clinical results are the news to watch for changes in Lilly’s competitive outlook.
Novartis sells Kisqali to treat hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer, directly competing with Lilly’s Verzenio for the same patient group.
Pfizer competes for patients in two parts of Lilly’s medicine business: Ibrance rivals Verzenio in breast cancer, while Cibinqo rivals Lilly’s atopic-dermatitis medicines.
AbbVie’s Rinvoq competes with Lilly’s Olumiant and Ebglyss for atopic-dermatitis patients, alongside broader rivalry in immune-disease medicines. Rinvoq’s sales and pricing are worth watching for pressure on Lilly’s skin-disease business.
AstraZeneca competes with Lilly for diabetes and blood-cancer patients: Farxiga rivals Lilly’s partnered Jardiance, and Calquence rivals Jaypirca.
Sanofi competes with Lilly in selling insulin and, through Dupixent, in treating atopic dermatitis. Dupixent’s sales are a concrete place to watch competition for patients served by Lilly’s Olumiant and Ebglyss.
Biogen’s partnered Leqembi competes with Lilly’s Kisunla as an approved Alzheimer’s treatment aimed at changing the disease’s course rather than just treating symptoms. Leqembi’s safety, effectiveness, convenience and cost-effectiveness help frame the competition Kisunla faces.
Regeneron’s partnered Dupixent competes with Lilly’s Ebglyss and Olumiant for atopic-dermatitis patients. Dupixent’s sales in that patient group are the relevant signal for Lilly, rather than Regeneron’s eye-medicine sales.
Incyte depends on Lilly’s Olumiant commercialization for royalties and milestone payments: it licenses Lilly the rights to sell baricitinib, the medicine marketed as Olumiant. Incyte’s baricitinib royalties provide a read on Olumiant sales.
BeOne’s leading medicine Brukinsa competes with Lilly’s Jaypirca for patients with B-cell blood cancers. Watch Brukinsa’s sales and reimbursement reach: it generated $3.9 billion in 2025 sales and was reimbursed in 58 markets, showing the scale of the rival Jaypirca faces.
Novartis AG earningsNVS
Novartis's report will show how Kisqali sales among patients with hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer shape the competitive pressure on Lilly's Verzenio.
Look for Novartis's Kisqali sales and whether its growth among this patient group continues. Strong sales momentum would show Kisqali is still drawing these patients and intensify the competitive pressure on Verzenio; fading momentum would suggest less pressure, but would not establish how Verzenio itself sold.
Biogen Inc. earningsBIIB
Biogen's report will show how Leqembi's sales and use as an Alzheimer's treatment reflect its contest with Lilly's Kisunla for patients.
Look at Biogen's disclosures on Leqembi sales and use, and any explanation of safety, treatment convenience, or patient access. Rising sales and use would show Leqembi extending its reach as a disease-modifying treatment, making the contest for patients more direct; weak growth would show limited expansion, but Biogen's report alone cannot identify the cause or establish Kisunla sales.
Eli Lilly & Co. earningsThis company
Lilly's report will show whether Mounjaro and Zepbound sales growth is outpacing the drag from lower realized prices and the cost of expanding supply.
Read Mounjaro and Zepbound sales alongside total revenue and gross margin, the share of revenue left after product costs. If sales grow and gross margin holds or rises, more volume is still translating into profit without price cuts or supply costs absorbing too much of the gain. If sales growth slows or gross margin falls, lower realized prices or production costs are eating into the growth these medicines bring.
ABBVIE INC. earningsABBV
AbbVie's report will show how Rinvoq sales for atopic dermatitis shape the competition facing Lilly's Olumiant and Ebglyss.
Look for AbbVie's Rinvoq sales, especially any detail on atopic dermatitis; total sales alone cannot show how that use changed. Growth in that patient group would show Rinvoq gaining ground where Lilly's Olumiant and Ebglyss also compete, increasing pressure on both; weaker sales would suggest less momentum in that contest.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc earningsREGN
Regeneron's report, if it breaks out Dupixent sales for atopic dermatitis, will show the competitive pressure that medicine puts on Lilly's Ebglyss and Olumiant.
Look for Regeneron's Dupixent sales specifically in atopic dermatitis, not just total sales across its uses. Growth in that indication would show Dupixent continuing to attract these patients and intensify competition for Lilly's two skin-disease medicines; weaker sales would suggest less momentum. If Regeneron does not break out the indication, total sales cannot settle this question.
Amgen Inc earningsAMGN
Amgen's report will update MariTide's clinical progress, helping show how soon this investigational obesity drug could become a rival to Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Look for Amgen's update on MariTide trial progress, key data, or changes to timing. Clear progress would show a potential rival moving closer to market and a more crowded future field for Lilly's obesity medicines; delays or setbacks would leave that challenge less advanced, but say nothing about Lilly's current sales.
Novo-Nordisk A/S earningsNVO
Novo Nordisk's report will show how Wegovy demand and sales momentum reflect its direct competition with Lilly in diabetes and obesity medicines.
Read Novo Nordisk's Wegovy sales and prescription trends alongside its discussion of pricing and demand. Strong sales and prescription momentum would show Novo remains a force for the same patients Lilly serves; weakening momentum would suggest less pressure, but Novo's report alone cannot prove Lilly gained market share.