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What happened with PFE today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PFE in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Pfizer’s business centers on prescription medicines and vaccines. Wholesalers buy most of its prescription products; it also sells directly to healthcare providers, pharmacies and governments. McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health together account for most of its revenue, with McKesson the largest customer. Insurers and government health programs influence what Pfizer ultimately earns through negotiated discounts, reimbursement decisions and price controls.

Some important products earn money through partnerships rather than sales alone. Pfizer commercializes Eliquis with BMS and generally shares profits and losses equally. It develops and commercializes Comirnaty with BioNTech, sharing development costs and commercialization gross profits equally. Comirnaty requires authorization or approval in each market, and Pfizer has no rights to it in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan.

Revenue is concentrated in a group of major products, including Eliquis. Their earnings depend on continued regulatory approval, insurance coverage and patent or regulatory protection against lower-priced generic and biosimilar competitors. Governments can restrict prices and access, and some government purchase contracts can be changed or ended at the buyer’s discretion. Pfizer relies on internal research, collaborations and acquired or licensed products to replace revenue lost as existing medicines lose exclusivity or market share.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PFE’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PFE says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Pfizer’s oncology results also depend on Astellas, its profit-sharing partner for Xtandi and Padcev, which is missing from this list.

  • Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer share profits from selling Eliquis, so demand and pricing affect both, even as their cancer medicines compete. Watch Eliquis demand, lower U.S. net prices and generic entry in certain international markets—the same forces shape Pfizer’s revenue from the drug.

  • BioNTech and Pfizer jointly develop and sell the COVID vaccine Comirnaty and split its commercialization gross profits equally, tying their vaccine earnings together. Watch vaccination uptake and contractual deliveries; their shared Comirnaty rights exclude mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

  • Merck competes for vaccine sales with Pfizer’s Prevnar family through its pneumococcal vaccines, while both companies also sell major cancer-drug portfolios.

  • Moderna competes directly for vaccine sales with Pfizer’s Comirnaty and Abrysvo through its COVID and RSV vaccines. Its revenue still comes largely from COVID vaccines, while RSV sales have been minimal, making its COVID-vaccine sales the more useful comparison for Pfizer.

  • GSK competes with Pfizer for RSV-vaccine sales: its Arexvy is a rival to Pfizer’s Abrysvo.

  • Novartis competes with Pfizer for hormone-receptor-positive breast-cancer treatment sales through Kisqali, a rival to Pfizer’s Ibrance.

  • AstraZeneca competes with Pfizer for sales in overlapping breast- and prostate-cancer treatment settings, where its Lynparza rivals Pfizer’s Talzenna.

  • AbbVie competes with Pfizer across several medicine sales: Rinvoq rivals Cibinqo and Xeljanz, while AbbVie’s migraine medicines compete with Pfizer’s Nurtec.

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  • Lilly competes with Pfizer for breast-cancer and migraine medicine sales: Verzenio rivals Ibrance, and Lilly’s migraine medicines compete with Nurtec.

  • Alnylam’s Amvuttra competes directly with Pfizer’s Vyndaqel family for ATTR cardiomyopathy treatment sales. Watch acceptance of Amvuttra’s under-the-skin injections versus Pfizer’s pills; Alnylam identifies that difference as a competitive risk.

  • Johnson & Johnson competes with Pfizer for prescription-medicine sales in prostate cancer, multiple myeloma and inflammatory diseases.

  • Sanofi’s Dupixent competes with Pfizer’s Cibinqo for patients with atopic dermatitis, making Dupixent sales a relevant comparison for Pfizer’s business in that condition.

  • Amgen competes with Pfizer for inflammatory-disease and migraine medicine sales: Enbrel rivals Xeljanz, and Amgen’s migraine products compete with Nurtec.

  • Gilead competes with Pfizer for medicine sales in overlapping COVID-treatment and breast-cancer markets through its COVID treatment and breast-cancer medicines.

  • Takeda sells Adcetris outside the U.S. and Canada and pays Pfizer royalties on those sales, giving Pfizer income from Takeda’s business in those territories. Takeda also competes with Pfizer’s ulcerative-colitis therapies through Entyvio.

  • Teva challenges Pfizer’s branded-drug sales with generic medicines after exclusivity is lost, and also competes with Pfizer’s Nurtec through its migraine medicines.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Novartis AG earningsNVS

    Novartis's report will show how Kisqali is selling in hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer, giving readers a read on its competitive pressure on Pfizer's Ibrance.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    GSK plc earningsGSK

    GSK's report will show how Arexvy is selling, offering a read on demand for RSV vaccines that it competes to sell with Pfizer's Abrysvo.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earningsALNY

    Alnylam's report will show demand for Amvuttra, a read on the competition its under-the-skin injections pose to Pfizer's oral Vyndaqel family.

  2. Time to be announced

    Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. earningsBMY

    Bristol Myers Squibb sells Eliquis with Pfizer and shares its profits, so its report will show how demand and net-price pressure affect a revenue stream the two companies share.

  3. Time to be announced

    Merck & Co., Inc. earningsMRK

    Merck's report will show sales of its pneumococcal vaccines, helping readers assess competition and market demand for Pfizer's Prevnar family.

  4. Time to be announced

    Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited earningsTAK

    Takeda sells Adcetris outside the U.S. and Canada and pays Pfizer royalties on those sales, so its report will show how the business behind that income is changing.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    ABBVIE INC. earningsABBV

    AbbVie's report will show Rinvoq's sales momentum, a read on the competition it brings to Pfizer's Xeljanz in overlapping inflammatory-disease treatment settings.

  2. Time to be announced

    AstraZeneca PLC earningsAZN

    AstraZeneca's report will show Lynparza sales, a read on the competition it brings to Pfizer's Talzenna in overlapping cancer-treatment settings.

  3. Time to be announced

    Sanofi earningsSNY

    Sanofi's report will show Dupixent's sales momentum in atopic dermatitis, a read on the competition facing Pfizer's Cibinqo.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Pfizer Inc. earningsThis company

    Pfizer earns mainly by selling medicines and vaccines, and this report will show whether growth in other products can offset falling COVID-product sales and support its revenue and earnings.

  2. Time to be announced

    BioNTech SE earningsBNTX

    BioNTech and Pfizer jointly develop and sell Comirnaty and split its commercialization gross profits, so this report will show how vaccination demand and contracted deliveries affect their shared business.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced

    Moderna, Inc. earningsMRNA

    Moderna's report will show its COVID-vaccine sales, helping readers judge whether Pfizer's Comirnaty faces a competitive market or one with shrinking overall demand.