JNJ in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Johnson & Johnson’s largest business supplies prescription medicines, with cancer and immune-system treatments contributing most of its drug sales. Wholesalers, distributors, retailers and hospitals buy its medicines for use in patient care. Its other business, MedTech, makes products that clinicians use in surgery, orthopaedics, cardiovascular care and vision care, selling through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers. Across both businesses, a large share of revenue comes through three wholesalers. The company separated its Consumer Health business and now operates through these two businesses.
DARZALEX and DARZALEX FASPRO together are its largest-selling product. Johnson & Johnson exclusively licenses key DARZALEX patents from Genmab A/S and pays it royalties on sales. Drug revenue depends partly on patent protection: competing versions can sharply reduce sales when exclusivity ends, and STELARA already faces competition from similar biological medicines, known as biosimilars. Developing or obtaining new treatments helps replace sales lost to that competition, but new medicines need regulatory approval before they can reach the market.
Government health programs and private insurers also shape sales by deciding what treatment costs they cover and pressing for lower prices. Some products are subject to government-set Medicare prices, while other markets can impose price controls or restrict reimbursement.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
AbbVie challenges Johnson & Johnson’s immunology and neuroscience medicine sales, but the two also share the development and sale of IMBRUVICA. That makes AbbVie both a rival for medicine revenue and a partner in IMBRUVICA’s performance.
Johnson & Johnson pays Genmab for the right to use DARZALEX patents, tying Genmab’s royalties to sales of J&J’s largest medicine. Watch DARZALEX royalty income: J&J paid Genmab about $2.4 billion in fiscal 2025, versus $2.0 billion in fiscal 2024.
Merck competes with Johnson & Johnson for specialist physicians’ and hospitals’ purchases of cancer and pulmonary hypertension medicines. Merck’s sales in those two treatment areas are the relevant comparison for J&J, rather than its whole business.
AstraZeneca competes for Johnson & Johnson’s cancer-medicine sales through Calquence against IMBRUVICA and Tagrisso against its lung-cancer portfolio. Calquence and Tagrisso sales are the two lines to watch for that rivalry.
Stryker competes with Johnson & Johnson for purchases of joint replacements, trauma products, surgical instruments and neurovascular devices. Its Orthopaedics sales offer a focused comparison for J&J’s hip, knee and trauma business.
Medtronic competes with Johnson & Johnson MedTech for hospitals’ spending on surgical instruments and vascular and neurocranial devices. Its new products in these areas are worth watching because Medtronic identifies continued product improvement as necessary to maintain its position.
Amgen competes with Johnson & Johnson in immunology and sells a competing version of STELARA, a biosimilar, that adds directly to pressure on STELARA sales. Its STELARA biosimilar business is the part to watch for J&J.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s Abecma competes with Johnson & Johnson’s CARVYKTI for multiple-myeloma patients. Abecma’s performance is the focused comparison for this part of J&J’s cancer-medicine business.
Novartis competes with Johnson & Johnson for patients using prescription medicines in immunology, oncology and neuroscience. Its drug-development news in those three areas is more relevant to J&J than developments elsewhere in its portfolio.
Pfizer competes with Johnson & Johnson for pulmonary hypertension and cancer-medicine sales, including treatments for prostate cancer. Those treatment areas, rather than Pfizer’s total revenue, are the useful comparison for J&J.
Takeda’s top-selling medicine ENTYVIO competes with Johnson & Johnson’s STELARA, TREMFYA and other inflammatory bowel disease medicines. Watch ENTYVIO sales for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease—the patient group where this rivalry plays out.
Johnson & Johnson uses technology supplied and licensed by Halozyme Therapeutics to deliver Janssen medicines, including DARZALEX FASPRO, by injection under the skin. Halozyme receives licensing payments, supply revenue and royalties from its partners, making Janssen product royalties the relevant line to watch.
Legend Biotech shares CARVYKTI’s development, manufacturing and sales with Johnson & Johnson, so the medicine’s costs and profits reach both companies. They split costs and profits or losses equally outside Greater China; Legend’s CARVYKTI sales and manufacturing updates are a direct window into this J&J growth product.
Sanofi’s Sarclisa competes with Johnson & Johnson’s DARZALEX for multiple-myeloma patients. Sarclisa sales are the relevant measure of this rivalry, rather than Sanofi’s broader medicines and vaccines business.
Alcon competes with Johnson & Johnson for contact-lens and eye-surgery product purchases. Watch its contact-lens sales and surgical business separately to compare with J&J’s corresponding vision businesses.
Intuitive Surgical competes with Johnson & Johnson in surgical stapling and energy products sold to hospitals, and also names J&J as a prospective robotic-surgery competitor. Its da Vinci stapling and energy-product developments show where that existing rivalry is expanding.
Lilly competes with Johnson & Johnson’s STELARA and TREMFYA through its immunology medicines, and with IMBRUVICA through JAYPIRCA. Its immunology sales and JAYPIRCA performance are the parts of Lilly’s medicine business to compare with J&J.
BeOne’s leading medicine BRUKINSA competes directly with Johnson & Johnson’s IMBRUVICA for patients with B-cell cancers. Watch BRUKINSA sales and reimbursement access: it generated $3.9 billion in 2025 and was reimbursed in 58 markets, while J&J cited competitive pressure on IMBRUVICA.
Gilead competes with Johnson & Johnson in HIV medicines but also supplies components for SYMTUZA, which J&J’s Janssen sells and shares revenue from with Gilead. SYMTUZA therefore links their revenue even as their other HIV medicines compete.
GSK’s Blenrep competes with Johnson & Johnson’s treatments for multiple myeloma, and both companies also sell HIV medicines. Blenrep’s performance is the specific product signal to watch for the myeloma rivalry.
Alkermes competes with Johnson & Johnson in schizophrenia and bipolar medicines, but J&J also pays for its technology in long-acting antipsychotics and relies on it to manufacture RISPERDAL CONSTA microspheres. Its royalties from long-acting INVEGA products and RISPERDAL CONSTA manufacturing revenue show the supplier side of that relationship.
Intuitive Surgical Inc. earningsISRG
Intuitive Surgical’s report will show whether hospitals are buying more da Vinci stapling and energy products that compete with Johnson & Johnson’s surgical tools.
Watch sales or adoption of da Vinci stapling and energy products. Growth would show hospitals directing more purchases to tools that compete directly with Johnson & Johnson, intensifying pressure on its related business; weakness would point to less pressure for now.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s rate decision signals whether borrowing costs are rising or falling, which can change what Johnson & Johnson pays to refinance its $6.5 billion of short-term commercial paper and other debt.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the policy rate is higher than expected, short-term rates may rise, making upcoming commercial-paper refinancing and new borrowing cost more for Johnson & Johnson.
If it comes in below expectations
If the policy rate is lower than expected, short-term rates may fall, potentially reducing Johnson & Johnson’s cost when it refinances commercial paper and takes on new borrowing.
Genmab A/S earningsGMAB
Genmab’s report will show whether royalties on Johnson & Johnson’s leading drug, DARZALEX, are still rising—income for Genmab and a cost for J&J.
Watch Genmab’s DARZALEX royalty income against Johnson & Johnson’s previously reported payments. Rising royalties would indicate continued momentum in J&J’s largest product, alongside a higher licensing cost; flat or falling royalties would suggest weaker product momentum and less of that cost.
Legend Biotech Corporation earningsLEGN
Legend Biotech’s report will show how CARVYKTI sales and manufacturing are progressing; outside Greater China, Johnson & Johnson shares the product’s costs and profits or losses equally with Legend.
Read CARVYKTI sales alongside manufacturing progress. Rising sales with production keeping pace would show demand and supply can both expand, supporting J&J’s shared economics; sales growth constrained by production, or weakness in both, would point to a limit on the drug’s contribution to J&J.