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Moderna sells Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE to protect against COVID-19, and mRESVIA against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In the United States, wholesalers and distributors buy most of its vaccines and supply them to vaccination providers. Abroad, buyers also include governments and international organizations. COVID-19 vaccines account for most revenue; RSV vaccine sales remain small.
The company develops and manufactures medicines using its own messenger RNA (mRNA) platform, which combines RNA design, delivery into cells and manufacturing processes. It is also developing candidates for cancer and rare diseases, but only its COVID-19 and RSV vaccines have regulatory approval.
Sales depend on how many people get vaccinated, which populations regulators approve and health authorities recommend for vaccination, and insurance coverage. Discounts, rebates and returns reduce what Moderna receives from sales. A competitor’s European Commission contract also excludes Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines from many European markets while that contract remains in force.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
BioNTech’s Comirnaty competes with Moderna’s vaccines for the same seasonal COVID vaccination demand. Watch Comirnaty sales alongside Moderna’s COVID vaccine sales, which still supplied nearly all its product revenue in 2025.
Pfizer competes for Moderna’s vaccine sales on two fronts: COVID, through its BioNTech partnership, and RSV, where Pfizer reached the U.S. market first. Watch its vaccine contracting news: larger rivals can use product bundling and broader networks to win contracts and market share.
Novavax offers COVID vaccine buyers a protein-based alternative to Moderna’s mRNA vaccines. Its Nuvaxovid was one of three FDA-approved vaccines for the 2025–2026 season, making its seasonal sales a useful measure of competition for Moderna.
Merck and Moderna share the stakes in trials of the personalized cancer vaccine they are developing for use with Merck’s Keytruda. Results from that combination matter to both companies’ oncology programs.
Sanofi competes with Moderna for COVID vaccine sales, and its established flu vaccine business sets a competitive hurdle for Moderna’s planned seasonal vaccines. Watch its flu vaccines for U.S. older adults: the CDC preferentially recommends Sanofi’s Fluzone High-Dose and Flublok in that market.
GSK’s RSV vaccines compete with Moderna’s mRESVIA for adult vaccination, with GSK having entered the U.S. market earlier. Watch its RSV sales and vaccine contracts for evidence of the competition facing mRESVIA, whose sales have remained minimal.
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation shares in the patent settlement payments Moderna owes for technology that protects mRNA and delivers it into cells, known as lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). Watch Moderna’s §1498 appeal: specified outcomes can trigger up to $1.3 billion in additional payments to Arbutus and Genevant together, with repayment possible in certain circumstances.
Roivant Sciences’ Genevant business licenses Moderna technology that delivers genetic material into cells using lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), for infectious-disease applications. The settlement requires $950 million in fixed payments to Genevant and Arbutus together, plus $1.3 billion if Moderna’s §1498 appeal produces a ruling favorable to them.
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. competes with Moderna’s COVID vaccines through its partner-sold mRNA vaccine KOSTAIVE. Watch KOSTAIVE’s sales in Japan through Meiji Seika Pharma and its geographic expansion through CSL Seqirus for signs of a broader competitive reach.
Moderna pays Personalis, Inc. for genomic testing in its personalized cancer-therapy trials, making Personalis dependent on that trial work for 22% of its 2025 revenue. Watch revenue from Moderna specifically, rather than Personalis’s total sales, for a read on this testing work.
GSK plc earningsGSK
GSK entered the U.S. RSV vaccine market before Moderna’s mRESVIA, and its report will show how much its sales and vaccine contracts add to mRESVIA’s competitive hurdle.
Watch GSK’s RSV vaccine sales and vaccine contracts. If both hold up, the earlier entrant still has sales and customer relationships, making it harder for mRESVIA to win vaccinations and contracts. If sales or contracts weaken, that competitive pressure may ease, but it would not show that demand has shifted to mRESVIA.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Moderna’s decision to borrow $600 million at a variable rate means the Fed’s policy rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy, can change the interest it pays on that loan and on future borrowing.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can increase interest on Moderna’s variable-rate loan and make future borrowing more expensive; commitment fees on its undrawn loan capacity remain another borrowing cost.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can reduce interest on Moderna’s variable-rate loan and make future borrowing cheaper; commitment fees on its undrawn loan capacity remain another borrowing cost.
Merck & Co., Inc. earningsMRK
Merck and Moderna have a shared stake in trials combining Keytruda with Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine, so any trial update in Merck’s report could shed light on their oncology program.
Look for disclosed trial results or progress on the combination, not just Keytruda sales. Evidence supporting the combination would add clinical support to Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine program; disappointing results or delays would make that route into oncology less certain. No update would not establish success or failure.
BioNTech SE earningsBNTX
BioNTech’s Comirnaty competes with Moderna’s COVID vaccines for the same seasonal vaccination demand, and its report will show how much sales that market is generating for a direct rival.
Watch BioNTech’s reported Comirnaty sales. Strong sales would show that seasonal vaccination demand still generates meaningful revenue, but would not mean Moderna captured the same sales or share. Weak sales would show pressure on a rival too, not a direct gain for Moderna. The key is to separate the size of the market from each company’s sales.
Personalis, Inc. earningsPSNL
Moderna pays Personalis for genomic testing in its personalized cancer-therapy trials, and Personalis’s report can show whether revenue from that work is changing.
Separate Personalis’s revenue from Moderna from its total revenue. An increase would indicate more testing work or billing tied to Moderna’s trials; a decrease would indicate less billed work. Billing timing can also move revenue, so this figure alone cannot establish trial success or the therapy’s effectiveness.
Moderna, Inc. earningsThis company
Moderna still gets nearly all its product revenue from COVID vaccines, and this report will show whether those sales are stabilizing and RSV vaccines are beginning to add revenue.
Read net product sales for COVID vaccines alongside RSV vaccines. In 2025, Moderna had $1,810 million in net product sales from COVID vaccines and $8 million from RSV vaccines. If COVID sales stop falling and RSV sales grow, the product base is beginning to broaden. If COVID sales keep falling while RSV sales remain small, product revenue still depends heavily on COVID vaccine demand.
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation earningsABUS
Arbutus shares Moderna’s patent-settlement payments with Genevant, and its report may clarify how the payments or appeal affect Moderna’s potential obligation.
Watch Arbutus’s disclosures on the shared settlement and Moderna’s §1498 appeal. The settlement includes $950 million in fixed payments to Arbutus and Genevant together, and specified appeal outcomes could trigger up to $1.3 billion more. If the report makes additional payments more likely, less cash may remain for Moderna’s research and operations. No new appeal development leaves that exposure unresolved; it does not cancel it.
