PAAS in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Pan American Silver operates mines across Latin America and Canada, with its gold-mine business contributing most revenue despite the company's name. It processes ore into unrefined gold-and-silver bars or metal-rich concentrates. After refining, it sells silver and gold to bullion traders and banks, which pay on delivery. It sells concentrates containing silver, zinc, lead and copper to metal traders and smelting companies under supply contracts.
Revenue depends directly on metal prices and is concentrated among a few buyers: its largest customer supplies a substantial share of sales, and its three largest customers together account for most sales. Pan American also owns a minority interest in Mexico's Juanicipio silver mine. Fresnillo owns the majority and operates the mine, so Pan American depends on Fresnillo for operating decisions and the timing of cash distributions.
Not all its properties can produce. Escobal in Guatemala remains shut because its mining licence is suspended; restarting requires, among other things, completion of a government-led consultation with Xinka Indigenous communities and renewal of permits. There is no restart date. At Navidad in Argentina, provincial bans on open-pit mining and cyanide processing currently prevent or make development uneconomic.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Pan American’s results hinge on gold and silver prices and mine performance, so watch Fresnillo, which operates Juanicipio and owns 56% of the joint venture.
First Majestic and Pan American share exposure to gold and silver prices and Mexican mining costs: both operate Mexican silver-gold mines and sell precious metals. First Majestic’s Mexican mine production is the closer comparison than its First Mint sales to shareholders and bullion customers.
Coeur and Pan American face the same gold and silver markets: both produce unrefined gold-silver bars, have them refined, and sell the metals to bullion-market buyers. Coeur’s sales to banks, bullion traders and refiners offer a comparison for Pan American’s refined-metal sales.
Hecla and Pan American share exposure to silver and gold prices as well as lead and zinc sales: both sell unrefined gold-silver bars and precious-metal-bearing concentrates to refiners, traders and smelters. Watch Hecla’s lead-zinc concentrate business alongside its precious metals when comparing Pan American’s revenue mix.
Endeavour Silver and Pan American share exposure to gold-silver sales and the charges for processing concentrates, selling both bullion and silver-bearing mixed-metal concentrates. Endeavour’s Kolpa concentrates contain silver, lead, zinc and copper, making them a useful comparison for Pan American’s concentrate business.
Fortuna and Pan American share exposure to Argentine and Peruvian mining conditions, producing gold in Argentina and silver-bearing lead-zinc products in Peru. Fortuna’s Lindero gold output and Caylloma silver, lead and zinc sales are the relevant comparisons, rather than its West African gold business.
Silvercorp and Pan American share exposure to silver prices and the value of lead and zinc produced alongside silver. Silvercorp’s Ying and GC mines in China provide a product-level comparison for Pan American’s La Colorada, not a comparison of local mining conditions.
Santacruz and Pan American share exposure to Bolivian and Mexican mining conditions and sell silver-bearing base-metal concentrates. Santacruz earns substantially all its revenue from silver and zinc sold in concentrates, making those sales the clearest comparison for Pan American’s concentrate business.
Newmont and Pan American share gold and silver price exposure and operate in overlapping countries, producing base metals alongside precious metals. Newmont’s energy, labor and equipment cost news provides a comparison for the mining-cost pressures facing Pan American.
Agnico Eagle and Pan American both produce gold in Canada and Mexico and sell at spot-market prices, so gold-price changes reach both businesses. Agnico Eagle’s policy of generally not selling future gold production forward makes its gold sales a useful comparison for Pan American’s spot sales to bullion traders and banks.
Kinross and Pan American share gold-price exposure and mining operations in Brazil and Chile, producing unrefined gold-silver bars for refining and sale in the world bullion market. Kinross sells all its refined gold to banks and refiners, a comparable outlet to Pan American’s bullion-bank and financial-institution buyers.
Barrick and Pan American both mine gold for global precious-metal markets, making Barrick a comparison for Pan American’s gold business rather than its silver mines. Gold and copper drive Barrick’s earnings; its gold-mine results are the relevant part to watch.
Wheaton and Pan American both depend materially on precious-metal prices, but Wheaton buys metals from mine operators rather than mining them itself. It pays upfront and a fixed amount per unit delivered under purchase agreements, then sells the metals; watch its realized selling prices separately from deliveries by the mines it finances.
McEwen and Pan American share gold-silver price exposure and operate in overlapping Americas jurisdictions, producing unrefined gold-silver bars and concentrates. McEwen sends the bars to refiners for saleable bullion and concentrates to smelters to recover gold and silver, making those outputs the relevant comparison.
Alamos and Pan American share gold-price exposure and operate gold mines in Canada and Mexico. Alamos’s Island Gold and Young-Davidson production in Ontario and Mulatos production in Sonora provide comparisons for Pan American’s Canadian and Mexican gold output.
Aura and Pan American share gold-price exposure through Latin American mines, including operations in Brazil and Mexico, and sell their gold into worldwide markets. Gold accounted for 73% of Aura’s 2025 revenue, making its gold sales a closer comparison than its copper-concentrate business.
Equinox and Pan American face the same global gold buyers: both produce unrefined gold bars that, once refined, are sold to international bullion banks, traders and refiners. Equinox says it does not depend on any particular purchaser, so its sales offer a comparison for Pan American’s access to the bullion market.
IAMGOLD and Pan American share gold-price exposure and depend on gold revenue from Canadian mines. IAMGOLD’s Côté Gold and Westwood production is the relevant comparison for Pan American’s Timmins gold operations.
Aris and Pan American share exposure to gold prices and South American mining conditions, producing unrefined gold bars for international refining markets. Aris earns most of its revenue by selling these bars to specialist refiners; its Segovia production ramp-up is a mine-performance comparison, not a direct driver of Pan American’s output.
Pan American must sell Royal Gold a contractual share of silver from specified Cerro Moro properties for 30% of the spot silver price. The share fell from 20% to 9% for the mine’s remaining life after deliveries reached 7 million ounces in July 2025, reducing the portion of production sold at that discounted price.
New Pacific’s share price directly affects Pan American’s investment income because Pan American owns shares in the Bolivian silver developer and also operates in Bolivia. Watch development news from Silver Sand, Carangas and Silverstrike as investment exposure, rather than current metal-sales revenue.
Newmont Corporation earningsNEM
Newmont’s report offers Pan American Silver a comparison on the energy, labor and equipment costs that pressure mines.
Set Newmont’s comments on energy, labor and equipment costs beside Pan American Silver’s own all-in sustaining costs. Easing pressure at Newmont would suggest a more favorable shared input-cost backdrop; rising pressure would be a warning. Their mine mixes differ, so Newmont’s costs cannot stand in for Pan American Silver’s own figures: its report must show whether it protected mine margins.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. earningsAEM
Agnico Eagle’s gold output and realized prices show the spot-market backdrop shared by Pan American Silver’s gold sales.
Read Agnico Eagle’s gold sales volume alongside its realized gold price. Stronger prices with steady output would indicate a supportive spot-market backdrop for Pan American Silver’s gold business; weaker prices or falling output would offer less support. Their mines and sales conditions differ, so this is a read on the shared gold market, not a substitute for Pan American Silver’s own gold sales.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Pan American Silver, the Fed’s policy rate—the benchmark that steers borrowing costs—matters because higher rates can increase interest paid on its floating-rate construction loans and future borrowing, while most of its debt is fixed-coupon notes.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can raise interest costs on Pan American Silver’s floating-rate construction loans and any new borrowing, leaving less cash for mine operations and investment; the effect on its mostly fixed-rate notes is limited.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can reduce interest costs on Pan American Silver’s floating-rate construction loans and any new borrowing, leaving more cash for mine operations and investment; the benefit to its mostly fixed-rate notes is limited.
Pan American Silver Corp. earningsThis company
Pan American Silver earns from selling silver, gold and other metals, and this report will show how mine output and costs translate into profit and cash.
Read attributable silver and gold sales volumes and realized prices alongside each segment’s all-in sustaining costs, the costs of maintaining production. Stronger sales and prices with controlled costs, followed by higher mine operating earnings and operating cash flow, would show the mines are turning metal revenue into profit and cash. If weaker volumes or rising costs offset the benefit of prices and weigh on earnings and cash, that conversion is deteriorating.
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP earningsAG
First Majestic’s Mexican silver-gold mine output and costs offer a direct comparison for Pan American Silver’s mines in Mexico.
Check whether First Majestic’s Mexican mines hold output and contain costs. Steady production with controlled costs would suggest a more favorable operating backdrop for silver-gold mines there; weaker output and rising costs would flag similar pressures for Pan American Silver to watch. The mines differ, so this is not a substitute for Pan American Silver’s own results: its Mexican mine performance settles the question.
Hecla Mining Company earningsHL
Hecla’s lead-zinc concentrate sales offer a comparison for the contribution of those metals to Pan American Silver’s concentrate business.
Read Hecla’s lead-zinc concentrate sales alongside its silver and gold business. Stronger lead-zinc sales relative to precious metals would suggest these co-produced metals are providing more support to mine revenue; weaker sales would mean less support. Pan American Silver also sells lead-zinc-bearing concentrates, but its output and contracts differ, so the question is whether its own concentrate revenue gets that support—not whether Hecla’s result repeats.
New Pacific Metals Corp. earningsNEWP
New Pacific’s project updates bear on the outlook for Pan American Silver’s investment in the Bolivian silver developer, not its current metal sales.
Watch New Pacific’s updates on the Silver Sand, Carangas and Silverstrike development projects. Progress would strengthen the outlook for the projects underlying Pan American Silver’s shareholding; delays or setbacks would weaken it. This bears on a development investment, not Pan American Silver’s current silver-sales revenue.