Stock daily read

What happened with SCZM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SCZM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. supplies metal traders and smelting companies with concentrates—processed ore containing metals. Silver and zinc provide substantially all its revenue, with lead and copper contributing the rest. All concentrate sales go to two buyers under long-term supply arrangements; Glencore buys the output from Bolivar and Porco. Losing either buyer or receiving fewer orders could materially affect the business.

Its plants process ore from its own mines and ore bought from independent mining groups through San Lucas. San Lucas blends and processes purchased ore using spare capacity at the Bolivian mills, earning a margin from the resulting concentrate sales while keeping the plants busier. The volume and metal content of this purchased ore vary, so its contribution is difficult to predict.

Santacruz operates Bolivar and Porco in partnership with Bolivia’s state-owned COMIBOL, which receives the larger share of net operating cash flow. These operations depend on renewable contracts, and their required transition to new agreements under Bolivian mining law remains unresolved and could involve renegotiation. Across its mines, Santacruz needs government permits and must meet environmental requirements. Earnings depend heavily on silver and zinc prices and on how much payable metal it can recover and sell.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SCZM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SCZM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Santacruz’s results hinge on silver and zinc prices, but also on Glencore buying Bolivar and Porco concentrates and state-owned COMIBOL retaining 55% of those operations’ net cash flow.

  • Americas Gold and Silver shares Santacruz’s exposure to metal prices and Mexican mining conditions: both sell zinc, lead and copper concentrates containing silver. Its Cosalá operations in Mexico offer a comparison for Santacruz’s Zimapan mine, though Americas Gold and Silver says it does not depend on any one concentrate buyer.

  • Silvercorp’s silver, lead and zinc sales face much the same price pressures as Santacruz’s, making its metal mix a useful comparison. Watch its Ying and GC mines in China, while keeping their operating setting separate from Santacruz’s Bolivia and Mexico.

  • Endeavour Silver and Santacruz share exposure to silver prices and Mexican mining conditions, and both sell concentrates containing several metals. Endeavour sells silver- and gold-rich concentrates to metal traders, while its Kolpa sales of silver, lead, zinc and copper concentrates offer the closer product comparison with Santacruz.

  • Hecla and Santacruz both sell silver-bearing concentrates to smelters and metal traders, so metal prices and the fees buyers charge to process those concentrates affect both. Hecla’s concentrate business is the comparison to watch for Santacruz’s revenue after treatment, smelting and refining charges.

  • Pan American Silver shares Santacruz’s exposure to Latin American mining conditions and sales of silver, zinc, lead and copper. Its sales of those metals are the useful comparison, rather than its gold business, because silver and zinc account for substantially all of Santacruz’s revenue.

  • First Majestic’s four producing Mexican mines face the same silver-price and country exposure as Santacruz’s Zimapan operation. Its Mexican mine news is more relevant to that comparison than sales of silver bars and rounds to shareholders and bullion customers through First Mint.

  • Avino and Santacruz both process Mexican ore into silver-bearing base-metal concentrates for outside buyers, linking their results to silver prices and concentrate sales terms. Watch Avino’s sales of copper concentrate containing silver and gold under its long-term agreement with Samsung C&T U.K. Limited, rather than treating it as a pure silver producer.

  • New Pacific Metals shares Santacruz’s exposure to silver prices and Bolivia’s mining environment, but develops projects rather than selling metal from operating mines. News on Silver Sand, Carangas and Silverstrike offers a view of Bolivia’s project-development climate, not a comparison with Santacruz’s current concentrate revenue.

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  • Coeur’s Las Chispas and Palmarejo mines share Santacruz’s Zimapan exposure to silver prices and Mexican mining conditions. Coeur has third parties refine its unrefined gold and silver into bullion sold to banks, bullion traders and refiners, so its Mexican silver production is a closer comparison than its sales terms with those buyers.

Agenda

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP earningsAG

    First Majestic’s report will show how output and unit costs are moving at its Mexican silver mines, giving Santacruz’s Zimapan mine a comparison from the same mining environment.

  2. Time to be announced

    Hecla Mining Company earningsHL

    Hecla’s report will show how metal prices and processing fees affect revenue from silver-bearing concentrates sold to smelters and metal traders, a sales path Santacruz also uses.

  3. Time to be announced

    Silvercorp Metals Inc. earningsSVM

    Silvercorp’s report will show how sales of silver, lead and zinc are moving, giving context for metal prices that also affect Santacruz’s revenue.

in 24 daysFri, Nov 13

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. earningsThis company

    Santacruz’s report will show whether recovering silver production at Bolívar is helping the company sell more payable metal, or whether higher metal prices are doing most of the work.