Stock daily read

What happened with IBM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

IBM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

IBM serves businesses and government agencies that need to update applications, manage data and keep critical operations running. It helps clients connect their own computing systems with cloud services—an approach called hybrid cloud—and apply artificial intelligence to their work. Software and Consulting together bring in most of its revenue.

Clients pay for software licenses, subscriptions and support, including Red Hat products for running applications across different computing environments. They also hire IBM to design and implement changes, modernize applications and data, and manage systems or business processes. IBM combines its own technology with partners’ solutions, including those from Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and SAP. Its Infrastructure business also sells systems such as IBM Z and provides cloud infrastructure and maintenance for critical workloads.

Delivering this work depends on skilled employees and an ecosystem of technology and sales partners. IBM serves a broad customer base, with no single client supplying a large share of revenue. Its systems handle sensitive and regulated data, so data-protection requirements shape how it delivers services, including where data can reside and how it moves across borders.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in IBM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

IBM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Oracle competes for the large organizations buying IBM’s cloud platforms, data-management software and infrastructure. Oracle’s cloud and software business is the part to watch for spending on those overlapping offerings.

  • Accenture competes with IBM Consulting for clients paying to transform their businesses, implement technology and run ongoing operations. Its Consulting and Managed Services results offer a view of the budgets IBM is pursuing for application modernization and outsourced operations.

  • Microsoft competes with IBM for enterprise spending on cloud platforms, AI tools and software that runs and manages servers. Watch its Intelligent Cloud business rather than its PCs or games for the closer read on IBM’s market.

  • Broadcom competes for enterprise software budgets that also fund IBM’s hybrid-cloud and transaction-processing products. Its private-cloud, mainframe and enterprise software portfolios—not its chips—are the relevant businesses to follow.

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise competes with IBM for customers buying hybrid-cloud systems, storage, infrastructure software and support. Its Alletra MP storage and HPE Private Cloud AI systems show where its offerings overlap with IBM’s infrastructure for critical transactions and AI workloads.

  • Infosys competes with IBM Consulting for enterprise clients paying to implement and modernize applications, manage cloud systems and operate business processes. Demand for its application modernization services is a useful check on the same work IBM sells.

  • Cognizant competes with IBM Consulting for clients paying to connect systems, maintain applications, modernize technology and run business processes. Its application maintenance and business-process services are the closest areas to watch for recurring outsourced work.

  • Dell Technologies competes with IBM for enterprise server, storage, deployment and support purchases. Dell separately reports AI-optimized servers, traditional servers and networking, and storage revenue, letting investors distinguish AI infrastructure demand from other hardware spending.

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  • Amazon’s AWS both competes with IBM in cloud infrastructure and enterprise software and partners with IBM to deliver client solutions. AWS results are the relevant part of Amazon to watch for enterprise cloud spending, rather than its retail businesses.

  • SAP competes with IBM in software for enterprise applications and business processes, while also partnering on client transformations. Its cloud subscription revenue and work to embed AI across applications are the areas to watch for customers’ modernization spending.

  • ServiceNow competes with IBM for enterprise purchases of software that manages technology operations and automates workflows with AI. Watch adoption of its AI-enhanced workflows, which it says customers can deploy without replacing existing technology.

  • CGI competes with IBM Consulting for clients paying to design, implement and operate technology and business processes. Its services that take over all or part of a client’s IT functions are the clearest comparison with IBM’s managed-services work.

  • Wipro competes with IBM Consulting for clients buying application modernization, infrastructure services, consulting and business-process operations. Its Technology Services and Business Process Services businesses are the areas to follow for outsourced IT and operating work.

  • DXC Technology competes with IBM Consulting for enterprise consulting, application solutions, data analytics and technology modernization work. Its Consulting & Engineering Services results provide the closest comparison for clients paying to modernize processes and automate work.

  • NetApp competes with IBM for enterprise storage systems, storage software and support purchases. Its Hybrid Cloud business and ONTAP data-management software are the closest comparison for customers storing data across their own facilities and clouds.

  • Everpure competes with IBM for enterprise storage systems, hybrid-cloud storage software and related services. Its FlashArray and FlashBlade purchases provide a concrete view of demand for storage serving critical business workloads, analytics and AI.

  • Cisco’s Splunk and software for tracking how systems perform compete with IBM’s enterprise IT operations and data-analysis software. Cisco’s Observability offerings—not its broader networking hardware business—are the relevant products to follow.

  • Alphabet’s Google Cloud competes with IBM for enterprise cloud and AI software spending. Follow Google Cloud separately: advertising drives much of Alphabet’s business and is a less direct comparison with IBM’s enterprise customers.

  • Salesforce competes with IBM for businesses buying workflow, data and AI-agent software, selling its services mainly through subscriptions. Adoption of its Agentforce 360 platform is the concrete area to watch for demand for integrated workflows and AI agents.

  • Datadog competes with IBM’s IT operations software by selling customers tools to monitor infrastructure and understand how applications perform. Its infrastructure monitoring products are the closest comparison, particularly where customers also consider IBM for monitoring on-premises systems.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    International Business Machines Corporation earningsThis company

    IBM’s report will show whether software sales keep growing and Consulting gains ground, revealing whether growth comes from software, client work, or both.

  2. Time to be announced

    SAP SE earningsSAP

    SAP’s report will show whether businesses keep paying for cloud business-process software, revealing demand for modernization work IBM also pursues and where software budgets are going.

in 4 daysFri, Oct 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Infosys Limited earningsINFY

    Infosys’s report will show whether businesses keep paying for application modernization, work that Infosys and IBM Consulting both compete to deliver.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT

    Microsoft’s report will show whether businesses are still spending on cloud platforms and related software, budgets that Microsoft and IBM both compete to win.

  2. Time to be announced

    SERVICENOW, INC. earningsNOW

    ServiceNow’s report will show whether businesses are adopting its AI-enabled workflow and IT-operations software, a budget area where it competes with IBM.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Dell Technologies Inc. earningsDELL

    Dell’s report separates AI-optimized servers, traditional servers and storage, showing whether infrastructure buying is broad or concentrated in AI systems—areas where Dell competes with IBM.

in 43 daysTue, Dec 1

  1. Time to be announced

    NetApp, Inc earningsNTAP

    NetApp’s report will show demand for hybrid-cloud storage and data-management software, purchases that overlap with IBM’s storage business.

in 51 daysWed, Dec 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Broadcom Inc. earningsAVGO

    Broadcom’s private-cloud and mainframe software results will show whether large organizations keep paying for infrastructure software that competes with IBM’s.