Stock daily read

What happened with NTAP today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NTAP in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

NetApp supplies businesses with systems that store, protect and move data across their own data centers and cloud services. Its ONTAP software manages data on storage equipment such as AFF all-flash arrays and also runs in the cloud. Most revenue comes from its Hybrid Cloud business: customers buy storage hardware bundled with software, then pay for support contracts covering updates, fixes and technical assistance. Product sales and support contracts together account for the bulk of the business.

Customers can also subscribe to storage through NetApp Keystone rather than buy the infrastructure outright. Its smaller Public Cloud business sells cloud storage and data services primarily as a service, including fully managed storage on AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Those cloud-provider relationships are important to delivering and selling these offerings.

Most sales reach NetApp through intermediaries rather than its direct sales force. Two distributors account for a large share of revenue, and reseller agreements generally require no minimum purchases, leaving the business dependent on continued orders through these channels. Export controls and sanctions also limit where and to whom NetApp can sell; it has already stopped sales and service to restricted parties and regions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NTAP’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NTAP says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

NetApp’s results hinge chiefly on enterprise storage spending and all-flash adoption, with Hitachi Vantara another important storage rival to watch beyond this list.

  • Everpure competes directly for NetApp’s enterprise storage customers: its FlashArray and FlashBlade systems challenge NetApp’s all-flash arrays and StorageGRID, while storage billed by usage competes with Keystone. Watch Everpure’s all-flash sales and consumption-based offerings for signs of pressure on NetApp’s storage business.

  • Dell Technologies competes with NetApp to sell storage systems and related software and services for customer data centers. Its separately disclosed storage revenue is the line to watch for this rivalry, rather than its AI-server or PC sales.

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise competes for NetApp’s enterprise storage and hybrid-cloud customers with Alletra storage, infrastructure software and related services. Watch news about Alletra MP and its accompanying consulting and support offerings for the competitive pressure most relevant to NetApp.

  • Nutanix, Inc. competes with NetApp for enterprise storage and hybrid-cloud workloads by selling subscription software that combines computing, storage and networking—a hyperconverged platform. Watch customer adoption of its storage and infrastructure software for evidence of competition with NetApp’s storage systems and services.

  • International Business Machines Corporation competes with NetApp to supply enterprise storage and infrastructure for customers’ hybrid-cloud and data-center deployments. Its storage offerings and deployment services for mission-critical workloads are the relevant competitive signals, rather than its broader consulting business.

  • Quantum competes with NetApp for customers storing and protecting unstructured data, selling primary storage software and systems, including object storage. Watch its primary-storage business for the overlap with NetApp, rather than treating all of Quantum’s long-term archive offerings as direct competition.

  • Sandisk’s enterprise solid-state drives and NetApp’s all-flash systems both benefit from flash adoption, but higher flash-component prices can help Sandisk while squeezing NetApp’s margins. Watch Sandisk’s Datacenter demand from cloud and enterprise customers alongside NAND pricing, not just its consumer sales.

  • Seagate Technology and NetApp both sell into data-center storage expansion, though Seagate’s hard drives and storage systems leave it more exposed to disk and hyperscale spending. Watch Seagate’s enterprise modernization and data-center refresh demand as a signal for NetApp, while separating it from hyperscale customers’ procurement cycles.

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  • Western Digital’s enterprise hard drives and NetApp’s disk-based and object-storage systems share demand for more storage capacity, but NetApp’s shift toward all-flash limits the overlap. Watch Western Digital’s Cloud sales to public- and private-cloud and enterprise customers for this capacity signal, rather than its consumer hard-drive sales.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Western Digital Corp. earningsWDC

    Western Digital's Cloud sales will show whether cloud and enterprise customers are also seeking storage capacity in markets that partly overlap with NetApp's.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Sandisk Corporation earningsSNDK

    Sandisk's data-center demand and NAND flash-memory prices will show how enterprise flash demand and a potential cost pressure on NetApp's products are changing.

in 42 daysTue, Dec 1

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    NetApp, Inc earningsThis company

    NetApp's report will show whether growth in all-flash product sales is coming with added pressure from product costs on its Hybrid Cloud margins.

  2. Time to be announced

    Everpure, Inc. earningsP

    Everpure's all-flash systems and usage-billed storage will show whether it is pressing NetApp for customers of its all-flash arrays and Keystone service.