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Sandisk rebounds 5.5% but remains down 23% over 21 sessions

Sandisk joined a broad memory-and-storage rebound, ending a five-session losing streak. The gain came on normal volume and was ordinary for the stock, leaving its steep monthly retreat largely intact.

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Company

Company overview

Most of Sandisk’s revenue comes from storage used in computers, mobile devices and other equipment, a market it calls Edge. It supplies manufacturers and sales-channel customers with solid-state drives (SSDs) and flash memory built into devices. Datacenter is its next-largest market, where cloud providers and enterprises buy high-performance SSDs and related software. Its smaller consumer business sells Sandisk-branded SSDs, memory cards and USB drives through retailers and distributors.

Several Datacenter and Edge customers have multi-year agreements that commit them to buy specified volumes and Sandisk to supply them, with both fixed and variable pricing components. Demand depends substantially on sales of customers’ systems and storage upgrades, while industry supply and demand affect product prices.

Sandisk relies on Flash Ventures, its joint ventures with Kioxia, for all its flash-memory wafers—the chips from which its storage products are made. Kioxia manufactures those wafers in Japan using the ventures’ equipment. Sandisk must pay its share of fixed manufacturing costs even when it buys less output, and help fund investment when the ventures’ cash flow is insufficient. The venture agreements also restrict manufacturing outside their Japanese facilities and beyond Sandisk’s allotted capacity, making Kioxia central to both supply and production expansion.

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Source: SEC filing

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Sandisk’s results also hinge on Kioxia, its manufacturing partner supplying all its flash wafers through their joint ventures, and on NAND competition from Samsung Electronics.

  • Micron competes with Sandisk for datacenter, device and consumer customers buying SSDs and embedded storage, exposing both NAND manufacturers to the same supply and pricing pressures. Watch Micron’s NAND capacity expansion: added supply without matching demand can push prices down for Sandisk too.

  • SK hynix competes with Sandisk in NAND flash and SSDs for server, PC and mobile-device customers. Its news on NAND selling prices and product upgrades helps gauge the pricing and technology pressure facing Sandisk’s storage products.

  • Western Digital and Sandisk share exposure to storage spending by cloud, computer and consumer customers, but Western Digital sells capacity-focused hard drives while Sandisk sells flash storage. Western Digital’s cloud hard-drive sales offer a read on storage demand beyond the companies’ separation history.

  • Seagate and Sandisk both depend on cloud and enterprise customers expanding storage, supplying high-capacity hard drives and enterprise SSDs respectively. Watch Seagate’s Data Center demand for shifts in customer purchasing and deployment schedules that may also matter to Sandisk’s enterprise SSD sales.

  • Silicon Motion shares Sandisk’s exposure to demand for SSDs, embedded storage and removable flash products, selling storage makers the chips and firmware that manage NAND—the controllers—which explicitly support Sandisk NAND. Its SSD and embedded-storage controller sales offer a demand signal, not proof of purchases by Sandisk, which primarily designs its controllers in-house.

  • Lam Research’s memory-equipment demand offers a window into the manufacturing investment cycle behind Sandisk’s wafer supply. It sells chipmakers equipment that removes material and adds layers—etch and deposition tools central to making 3D NAND—so watch demand for those tools.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Lam Research Corp earningsLRCX

    Lam Research's report can show whether memory makers are investing in manufacturing tools, a signal of whether the wafer supply Sandisk relies on could eventually expand.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC earningsSTX

    Seagate's report can show whether cloud and enterprise customers are expanding data-center storage purchases, a read-through for demand for Sandisk's enterprise SSDs.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    SK hynix Inc. earningsSKHY

    SK hynix's report will show whether NAND pricing and product upgrades are easing or intensifying the competition Sandisk faces for server, PC, and mobile customers.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Sandisk Corporation earningsThis company

    Sandisk's report will show whether sales in Datacenter and Edge are turning into stronger profit after product costs.