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What happened with NTNX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NTNX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Nutanix helps businesses run and manage applications, data and AI workloads across their own data centers, edge locations and public clouds. Its Nutanix Cloud Platform brings computing, storage and networking together through software. Customers deploy it on compatible hardware or in cloud environments, including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Service providers also buy the platform to build cloud services for their own customers.

Subscriptions supply almost all revenue. Customers pay for software use over a defined term, with upgrades and technical support included. Nutanix sells mainly through resellers, distributors and hardware manufacturers; manufacturers can license its software and bundle it with servers. Its two largest distributors account for a substantial share of revenue, making these sales relationships important even though the end customers span many industries.

The business depends on customers renewing subscriptions and buying more capacity or software for additional workloads. It also depends on maintaining compatibility with other vendors’ technology and on customers obtaining suitable hardware. U.S. export controls and sanctions restrict where and to whom Nutanix can sell certain products, and some exports require authorization.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NTNX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NTNX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Broadcom’s VMware pricing and partner changes can push enterprise customers to consider Nutanix’s software for running applications on shared servers and private clouds. Watch VMware’s pricing and support terms, but multiyear contracts and migration costs can delay those customers becoming Nutanix subscribers.

  • HPE both competes for Nutanix’s enterprise customers with hybrid-cloud infrastructure and helps sell Nutanix by packaging its software with HPE hardware. Watch whether HPE’s customer offerings pair its servers with Nutanix software or favor its own software-defined infrastructure.

  • Dell Technologies sells enterprise servers, storage and integrated systems that compete with Nutanix deployments, but also supplies qualified hardware on which customers run Nutanix software. Dell’s traditional-server and storage business is the part to watch for this overlap, rather than its PC sales.

  • Microsoft competes with Nutanix for enterprise spending on running applications through Azure and its virtualization software, while Azure also hosts Nutanix Cloud Clusters. An enterprise moving applications to Azure can therefore still use Nutanix’s subscription software, rather than necessarily replace it.

  • IBM’s Red Hat platforms compete with Nutanix for enterprise customers buying software to run applications across private and public clouds. The overlap is in software for running multiple virtual computers on servers and managing container-based applications, through Red Hat virtualization and OpenShift.

  • NetApp competes for enterprise storage and data-management spending that Nutanix serves through its software-defined storage and cloud platform. Watch NetApp’s ONTAP offerings for managing data across company data centers and private and public clouds, where the two platforms overlap.

  • Everpure competes with Nutanix for enterprise customers buying storage and software to manage data for container-based applications. Its FlashArray and FlashBlade storage systems and Portworx Kubernetes data-management software are the products to watch against Nutanix’s storage and container capabilities.

  • Amazon’s AWS competes with Nutanix for enterprise computing workloads, but also hosts Nutanix Cloud Clusters for customers using both company data centers and public clouds. For Nutanix holders, the distinction is whether customers buy AWS computing alongside Nutanix software or use it instead.

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  • Cisco and Nutanix both depend on enterprise data-center deployments: customers buy Cisco servers and networking, including hardware integrated with Nutanix software. Watch Cisco’s server delivery lead times, since hardware availability can affect when customers deploy Nutanix software and when Nutanix recognizes revenue.

  • Oracle Cloud competes for enterprise customers paying to run infrastructure and applications that Nutanix’s hybrid-cloud software also supports. Watch Oracle Cloud’s offerings for those workloads, where customers weigh cloud services against Nutanix’s platform across data centers and public clouds.

Agenda

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon's report will show how enterprise spending on AWS is changing; AWS competes for workloads with Nutanix but also hosts Nutanix software.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    Cisco Systems, Inc. earningsCSCO

    Cisco's server delivery picture will show whether hardware availability is slowing customer deployments of Nutanix software and the timing of related revenue.

in 35 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Nutanix, Inc. earningsThis company

    Nutanix earns most of its revenue from subscriptions, and this report will show whether new customers, renewals and expansion by existing customers are still supporting growth.

in 42 daysTue, Dec 1

  1. Time to be announced

    NetApp, Inc earningsNTAP

    NetApp's report will show demand for its ONTAP data-management platform, which competes with Nutanix for overlapping storage and cloud-platform spending.

in 44 daysThu, Dec 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company earningsHPE

    HPE's report can show whether its enterprise server and hybrid-cloud offerings are being paired with Nutanix software or favoring HPE's own infrastructure software.

in 50 daysWed, Dec 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Broadcom Inc. earningsAVGO

    Broadcom's report can offer clues about VMware's business and customer migration, helping show whether enterprises may be considering Nutanix instead.