AMZN in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with AMZN today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Amazon.com’s online and physical stores generate most of its revenue. It buys goods for resale and also lets third-party merchants sell through its stores. Shoppers pay Amazon for goods it sells itself; third-party merchants remain the sellers and pay Amazon commissions and fees for services such as storing, packing and shipping orders. Merchants and other advertisers also pay to promote their offerings, while shoppers pay for Amazon Prime memberships that combine shipping and entertainment benefits.
A separate business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), sells computing power, storage, databases and other technology services on demand. Businesses, developers and public institutions pay AWS to use these services. This business depends on data-center capacity and reliable service, while the stores depend on product availability and fast, reliable fulfillment.
China-based sellers supply a significant share of seller-service and advertising revenue, and China-based suppliers provide a significant share of components and finished goods. Local rules also shape how Amazon operates: restrictions on foreign control of online multi-brand retail in India mean it serves amazon.in sellers with marketing tools and logistics services. In China, it provides certain technology services through contracts with third parties that hold the required local licenses.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Microsoft’s Azure competes with AWS to sell enterprises computing, storage and AI services, making it a close benchmark for Amazon’s largest profit business. Watch Azure’s progress in winning those enterprise workloads.
Alphabet challenges Amazon on two fronts: Google Cloud competes for enterprises’ cloud spending, while Google Search and YouTube compete for advertisers’ budgets. Its cloud business and search and video advertising are the relevant lines to watch.
Walmart competes with Amazon for consumers’ purchases through stores, online shopping and delivery. Its efforts to combine stores with e-commerce while keeping prices low show the price and convenience Amazon’s retail business must match.
Amazon’s AI expansion uses NVIDIA chips that accelerate computing—GPUs—in AWS services sold to developers and enterprises. Demand for those chips and their availability are the NVIDIA signals to watch for AWS’s AI expansion.
Oracle competes with AWS to sell enterprises the computing infrastructure and database services they need. Watch Oracle’s cloud offerings on cost, performance and reliability—the factors it identifies in competing for those customers.
Meta Platforms competes with Amazon for marketers’ digital advertising budgets, including ads intended to drive purchases. Meta sells ad placements across its apps; that advertising revenue is the relevant comparison for Amazon’s sponsored, display and video ads.
Costco competes with Amazon for household merchandise spending, using low prices, convenient shopping and paid memberships. Its limited assortment and efficient warehouse distribution let it operate profitably at lower gross margins than most retailers—a useful comparison for Amazon’s low-price retail proposition.
Netflix competes with Amazon Prime Video for paying viewers, viewing time and licensed or original programming. Netflix’s monthly membership revenue offers a focused comparison, while Amazon’s subscription revenue also includes Prime’s delivery benefits and other digital subscriptions.
Coupang offers a comparison for Amazon’s retail model in different markets: both sell goods to shoppers and offer merchants order fulfillment and advertising, alongside video services, around integrated logistics networks. Coupang’s Korean merchant fulfillment and logistics services are a concrete place to watch how that model works.
Wayfair competes with Amazon for online furniture, housewares and home-improvement purchases by consumers and businesses. Its sales in those categories offer a narrower view of the competition than Amazon’s broad retail business.
Chewy competes with Amazon for online pet-product spending through competitive prices, automatic repeat orders and fast delivery. Watch its recurring-order offering as a concrete measure of the convenience Amazon faces in this category.
Intel supplies the processors that run computing tasks—CPUs—used by AWS to serve developers and enterprises, so its product plans and supply conditions affect Amazon’s infrastructure choices and costs. Watch Intel’s data-center processor launches and availability, rather than its PC business.
The Walt Disney Company’s streaming and sports services compete with Amazon Prime Video for subscribers, advertisers and programming rights. Its direct-to-consumer entertainment subscription and advertising revenue is the relevant line to watch, rather than its parks business.
NetFlix Inc earningsNFLX
Netflix's report will show how changes in paid memberships and membership revenue reflect the fight for viewers and programming that Prime Video also faces.
Read Netflix's paid memberships alongside its membership revenue. If both grow, more viewers are paying for streaming, intensifying the contest for viewers and programming that Prime Video faces. If memberships stall while revenue rises mainly through higher prices, that is not evidence of stronger viewer demand. Netflix's membership revenue is mainly monthly fees; Amazon's subscription revenue also includes Prime delivery benefits and other digital subscriptions, so the totals are not directly comparable.
Meta Platforms, Inc. earningsMETA
Meta Platforms' report will show whether advertisers keep increasing spending on its platforms, competing with Amazon for the same ad budgets.
Read Meta Platforms' ad revenue alongside ad impressions. Growth in both suggests advertisers are spending more, intensifying competition for the budgets Amazon seeks with sponsored, display and video ads. If both slow, budget competition may ease, but that does not mean Amazon's own ad revenue will grow.
Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT
Microsoft's report will show how enterprise spending on Azure is changing, offering a comparison for Amazon as AWS competes for the same customers.
Watch Microsoft's reported Azure growth. Faster growth shows that enterprises are still increasing cloud spending, giving AWS a strong rival for those workloads. Slower growth may mean overall enterprise cloud spending is weaker; by itself, it does not show that AWS is winning customers.
Amazon.Com Inc earningsThis company
Amazon's report will show whether AWS is turning customer use of its cloud services into more profit to support its large infrastructure investments.
Read AWS net sales and operating income alongside cash capital expenditures. If AWS sales and operating income grow without capital spending rising as fast, more customer use is turning into profit. If AWS sales or income slows while spending rises, infrastructure investment is running ahead of customer use. Capital spending also supports the fulfillment network, so not all of it is AWS spending.
Nvidia Corp earningsNVDA
NVIDIA's report will show demand for and supply of its GPUs, chips Amazon needs as it expands AI services through AWS.
Watch NVIDIA's data-center business and what it says about GPU supply. Strong data-center demand alongside tight supply would suggest that chips AWS needs remain contested and could constrain Amazon's AI capacity. Weaker demand or more available supply could ease the sourcing pressure, but would not establish that Amazon's own demand changed.
Walmart Inc. earningsWMT
Walmart's report will show whether shoppers keep choosing its low-price stores and online services, a competition Amazon's retail business also faces.
Read Walmart's comparable sales alongside its e-commerce sales. Strength in both would show that shoppers are still spending with a low-price retailer and using online shopping and delivery, leaving Amazon to compete on price and convenience. If both weaken, demand may be softer; that alone does not show shoppers shifted to Amazon.