Stock daily read

What happened with AVGO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AVGO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Broadcom earns most of its revenue from semiconductor solutions, with infrastructure software contributing a substantial share. Its chips help equipment process, move and store data, from data-center networks to wireless devices. For large cloud operators and AI developers, it supplies custom AI accelerators that perform computing work and Ethernet chips that move data between systems. Equipment makers and their contract manufacturers buy its semiconductor products directly or through distributors.

Large enterprises and government agencies pay Broadcom for software licenses, subscriptions and related support. Its VCF private-cloud software helps customers run computing workloads in their own data centers and across supported cloud environments. Other software manages and secures enterprise IT, including mainframe systems. Continued software income depends in part on customers renewing their license agreements.

Chip sales depend on customers choosing Broadcom designs for their equipment and then placing production orders. A small group of end customers supplies a large share of revenue, and one semiconductor distributor alone accounts for a substantial portion of company sales. Broadcom outsources most chip manufacturing and relies heavily on TSMC for outsourced wafer production. It must also comply with U.S. export controls, which can limit the customers, technologies and markets it can serve.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AVGO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AVGO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Marvell Technology challenges Broadcom for hyperscalers’ spending on custom AI chips, Ethernet networking chips and high-speed connections. Its data-center revenue is the line to watch for demand in these markets, though it also reflects a rival’s sales.

  • NVIDIA competes for the AI data-center budgets that fund Broadcom’s custom accelerators and Ethernet chips, selling computing and networking platforms rather than just individual chips. Watch its data-center networking business for competition facing Broadcom’s AI networking products.

  • Broadcom’s chip deliveries depend in part on TSMC, which manufactures chips from customers’ designs and also provides assembly and testing. Watch TSMC’s manufacturing technology and capacity, especially in advanced processes, for constraints on Broadcom’s supply.

  • Arista Networks’ cloud and AI Ethernet switch deployments feed Broadcom’s networking sales because Broadcom is its predominant switching-chip supplier. Watch deployments for large cloud companies and AI providers, the customers buying those switches.

  • Google’s AI infrastructure deployments are an important source of Broadcom chip demand: Google works with Broadcom on custom chips that accelerate AI computing, called TPUs.

  • Credo competes with Broadcom for hyperscale AI infrastructure spending on high-speed Ethernet connections, chips that process optical signals and technology that converts data between serial and parallel forms. Watch its optical connectivity products and licensing of that conversion technology, known as SerDes, for competitive pressure on Broadcom.

  • Astera Labs competes with Broadcom to sell chips that connect data, networks and memory in cloud and AI systems built by hyperscalers and equipment makers. Watch its Ethernet smart cable modules and fabric switches for competition in those connectivity purchases.

  • AMD’s AI GPUs and adaptive computing products compete with Broadcom’s custom accelerators for data-center computing budgets. Watch AMD’s support for generative-AI workloads in its ROCm software platform, which helps customers use its computing products.

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  • Qualcomm competes with Broadcom to sell Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and radio-frequency connectivity components to device and networking-equipment manufacturers. Its standalone connectivity and RF front-end products are more relevant to this rivalry than its patent-licensing business.

  • Cisco’s Silicon One chips for switching and routing compete with Broadcom’s Ethernet chips in enterprise and AI networks. Watch Cisco’s use of Silicon One in high-performance networking systems for how that alternative reaches customers.

  • International Business Machines competes with Broadcom for large enterprises’ hybrid-cloud infrastructure and mainframe software budgets. Its software for modernizing applications is the relevant business to watch, rather than its financing receivables.

  • HPE supports Broadcom’s chip sales by buying semiconductors designed for particular functions in its equipment, but also competes with Broadcom for hybrid-cloud customers. Its hybrid-cloud systems and software therefore matter differently from its equipment purchases.

  • Microsoft is both a customer and a software rival for Broadcom: Azure infrastructure buys Broadcom networking chips, while Microsoft competes with VMware’s enterprise virtualization and private-cloud software.

  • Celestica and Broadcom both benefit from hyperscaler hardware deployments: Celestica designs and builds networking, server and rack platforms, while Broadcom sells chips for those infrastructure categories. Watch Celestica’s cloud and connectivity business for the pace of customers’ hardware deployments, not as evidence of direct purchases from Broadcom.

  • Amazon’s AWS infrastructure expansion feeds Broadcom semiconductor demand because AWS data centers use Broadcom networking chips.

  • Intel competes with Broadcom to develop chips tailored to customers’ needs and sells rival data-center networking and AI acceleration products. Watch those products within its Data Center and AI business, rather than treating all of that business’s CPU sales as overlap with Broadcom.

  • Broadcom relies on ASE Technology to assemble and test chips before delivery, paying for outsourced production services. Watch ASE’s packaging and testing capacity investment rather than its separate electronics manufacturing business.

  • Amkor helps Broadcom deliver chips by providing paid assembly and testing services. Its package-design, packaging and final-test capabilities are the relevant operations to watch for Broadcom’s outsourced production.

  • MaxLinear competes with Broadcom for chips that equipment makers put into broadband gateways, home networks and data-center communications equipment. Watch its products for Wi-Fi routers, broadband modems and data-center optical transceivers for demand and competition in these markets.

  • Lumentum and Broadcom both sell optical semiconductor components that connect high-capacity data-center and telecommunications networks. Watch Lumentum’s laser chips and optical components that customers integrate into larger systems, rather than its industrial lasers.

  • MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc overlaps with Broadcom in optical and radio-frequency components that customers build into high-speed data-center links and telecommunications equipment. Its Data Center and Telecom businesses are the relevant markets to watch, rather than Industrial and Defense.

  • Semtech’s chips for optical and copper communications compete with Broadcom’s chips that carry signals over physical connections in data-center and broadband networks. Watch its Signal Integrity revenue, which includes those communications products, rather than its IoT services.

  • Ciena competes with Broadcom in products that connect expanding cloud, AI and telecommunications networks, selling networking hardware, software and services to network operators. Its optical networking products, powered by WaveLogic modem technology, are the relevant part of its portfolio to watch.

  • Vertiv and Broadcom share exposure to AI data-center expansion: Vertiv sells power and cooling equipment for the facilities deploying Broadcom’s AI accelerators and networking chips. Watch its data-center power and air- or liquid-cooling business for the physical infrastructure being built around that computing demand.

Agenda

in 50 daysWed, Dec 9

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Broadcom Inc. earningsThis company

    Broadcom’s report will show whether custom AI chips and networking products, alongside VMware software, are both driving revenue and profit.