Stock daily read

What happened with SMTC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SMTC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Semtech supplies chips that help equipment move data, protect electronic circuits and communicate wirelessly. Equipment manufacturers incorporate these chips into their products, including data-center and network equipment and devices using Semtech’s LoRa wireless technology. Semiconductor sales together provide most revenue, and industrial applications are its largest end market.

A substantial second business sells modules, gateways and routers that connect devices, plus managed connectivity services, to device makers, enterprises and solution providers. These services rely on third-party mobile networks. Semtech has announced plans to sell its cellular module business; the sale is not yet complete.

Most sales pass through independent distributors rather than directly to equipment makers. Revenue depends on a relatively small group of customers and end customers, and on manufacturers choosing Semtech products for their designs and then placing orders. Being selected for a design does not guarantee purchases, and many purchase orders can be cancelled.

Semtech outsources most manufacturing, although it now also operates foundries for certain data-center interconnect chips. It depends on outside manufacturing capacity to deliver products. China, including Hong Kong, receives a large share of shipments, though customers may resell those products elsewhere. Export and trade restrictions have limited sales to certain customers and markets and can prohibit transactions or require licenses.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SMTC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SMTC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Semtech also depends on cellular IoT module demand, where Quectel and Telit are competitors to watch beyond this list.

  • MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc and Semtech compete to supply equipment makers with analog and optical communications chips for data-center links and telecom infrastructure. MACOM’s news on faster links within and between data centers is worth watching alongside Semtech’s Signal Integrity business.

  • MaxLinear and Semtech compete for chips that equipment makers use in optical transceivers, broadband devices and wireless infrastructure. Watch MaxLinear’s optical-transceiver and base-station products rather than treating its whole business as a guide to Semtech.

  • Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd and Semtech compete to supply products that carry data over high-speed optical and electrical links in data centers. Credo’s active electrical cables and optical transceivers serving large data centers building AI infrastructure offer a focused view of demand in this market.

  • Marvell Technology and Semtech compete to supply customers with high-speed interconnect chips for data centers and communications networks. Marvell’s data-center revenue is worth following, though it includes compute, networking and storage products beyond the interconnects that overlap with Semtech.

  • Silicon Laboratories and Semtech compete to get low-power wireless chips chosen for IoT devices, but use different radio technologies. Silicon Laboratories’ Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and other wireless-product news provides context for device makers’ choices alongside Semtech’s LoRa products, not a direct read on LoRa demand.

  • Littelfuse and Semtech compete to sell manufacturers devices that protect circuits, including transient-voltage suppressors, or TVS devices, for industrial, consumer and communications electronics. Littelfuse’s Electronics business is the relevant area to watch, rather than its transportation or industrial-fuse businesses.

  • Coherent and Semtech share exposure to demand for faster data-center and telecom optical links: Coherent sells optical transceivers and components, while Semtech sells chips that maintain signal quality in those links. Coherent’s Datacenter & Communications products are the part to watch for this demand.

  • Lumentum Holdings and Semtech both depend on deployment of faster optical links in data centers and telecom networks, selling optical components and modules and signal-quality chips respectively. Watch Lumentum’s optical modules deployed in customer networks and the optical components customers build into larger systems.

Show 8 moreShow less
  • Sequans Communications S.A. and Semtech compete to sell device makers cellular IoT modules that connect industrial and other endpoints to mobile networks. Sequans’ planned low-power 5G/4G products are worth watching for changes in the module choices available to those makers.

  • Analog Devices and Semtech compete to supply industrial and communications equipment makers with high-performance analog and mixed-signal chips. Analog Devices’ product news on accuracy, power use and reliability is relevant to the choices those customers make.

  • Broadcom and Semtech compete to supply chips for optical communications, broadband access and data-center connectivity. Broadcom’s networking-connectivity and broadband semiconductor businesses are more relevant to Semtech than its infrastructure software.

  • Fabrinet and Semtech serve the same optical-equipment market in different roles: equipment makers pay Fabrinet to manufacture products, while Semtech sells chips that maintain signal quality. Fabrinet’s optical-communications manufacturing business offers a view of equipment production, without implying that it buys from Semtech.

  • STMicroelectronics competes with Semtech for industrial and consumer electronics manufacturers’ purchases of protection, sensing and analog chips.

  • Texas Instruments and Semtech compete to get their analog, power and wireless-connectivity chips chosen by industrial electronics designers and manufacturers.

  • Microchip Technology and Semtech compete to supply analog and wireless-connectivity products for industrial and communications equipment. Microchip’s combined hardware, software and services offering is worth watching as customers choose how much of their equipment’s chip needs to buy from one supplier.

  • Airgain and Semtech compete to connect devices and vehicles to cellular networks, selling embedded connectivity products and vehicle gateways. Airgain’s embedded cellular modems for enterprises and AirgainConnect Fleet products are the relevant offerings to watch.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Littelfuse Inc earningsLFUS

    Littelfuse's report will show whether its Electronics business is selling circuit-protection devices steadily, offering a read on demand from the same customers Semtech serves with TVS products.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Sequans Communications S.A. earningsSQNS

    Sequans's report will show whether device makers are adopting cellular IoT modules that compete with some of Semtech's connectivity products.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Coherent Corp. earningsCOHR

    Coherent's report will show whether demand for optical products in data centers and communications networks is strengthening, a market shared with Semtech's signal-quality chips.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc earningsMTSI

    MACOM's report will show whether equipment makers are spending more on the high-speed data-center and telecom chips that compete with Semtech's Signal Integrity products.

in 34 daysMon, Nov 23

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Semtech Corp earningsThis company

    Semtech's report will show whether sales of data-center signal-integrity chips and IoT products are translating into stronger gross profit.