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What happened with RJF today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

RJF in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Raymond James Financial helps individual investors plan their finances and invest through employee and independent financial advisors, mainly in the United States. Its Private Client Group supplies most of its revenue. Clients pay ongoing fees based on account assets or commissions when they trade, and investment-product providers pay distribution and servicing fees. Asset management and related administration fees are its largest revenue source. These earnings depend on client asset values, money flowing into or out of accounts, and retaining advisors and their client relationships.

Client cash also supports the business. The Raymond James Bank Deposit Program places uninvested brokerage cash with its own banks or third-party banks. Third-party banks pay servicing fees; Raymond James Bank and TriState Capital Bank use deposits to fund loans and securities, earning interest after paying deposit and borrowing costs. The business relies heavily on this program to fund bank asset growth, while cash balances, interest rates and rates paid to clients influence earnings.

Beyond individual investors, Raymond James Investment Management manages money for institutional clients and investment funds. The Capital Markets business earns fees from companies arranging mergers, acquisitions and securities offerings, and from institutional investors trading securities. This income depends on completed deals and trading activity. Regulatory capital requirements constrain the banks and broker-dealers, and rules limit how much cash subsidiaries can send to the parent company.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RJF’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

RJF says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Stifel Financial Corp. is a broad rival to Raymond James: both serve individuals through financial advisors and banking, and earn business from institutions trading securities and companies seeking deal or financing advice. Stifel’s wealth-management and investment-banking results offer a comparison for both sides of Raymond James’s business.

  • Ameriprise Financial competes with Raymond James for advisors and retail clients who pay for financial planning, securities transactions and managed accounts, alongside banking services. Watch Ameriprise’s advisor retention and managed-account assets for a comparison with Raymond James’s ability to keep advisors and grow asset-based fees.

  • LPL Financial competes with Raymond James for independent advisors and financial institutions’ wealth practices, providing platforms that hold client assets, execute trades, support investment advice and manage cash. Its fee-based advisory assets and programs that place client cash in bank deposits are useful comparisons for Raymond James’s advisory fees and cash-servicing revenue.

  • Morgan Stanley competes with Raymond James for individuals’ wealth-management business and for companies and institutions needing financing advice or securities services. Its wealth-management and institutional-securities results provide separate comparisons for Raymond James’s client-asset and capital-markets businesses.

  • Charles Schwab and Raymond James both earn fees from clients’ securities trades and investment assets, and income from banking operations using client cash. Watch Schwab’s net interest revenue and bank-deposit fees alongside its asset-management fees to compare the cash and investment sides of Raymond James’s earnings.

  • Bank of America competes with Raymond James for wealth clients buying investment management, brokerage and banking services, as well as corporate investment-banking mandates. Its wealth division’s client balances are a more direct comparison for Raymond James’s client-asset business than the bank’s broader consumer operations.

  • Oppenheimer Holdings competes with Raymond James for affluent U.S. clients who use advisors to trade securities or manage investments in fee-based accounts. Oppenheimer’s shift from per-trade commissions toward fee-based accounts is worth watching alongside Raymond James’s fees tied to client asset values.

  • Wells Fargo competes with Raymond James for clients seeking financial planning, brokerage, private banking and trust services, and for companies seeking financing and capital-markets services. Its wealth and corporate-financing businesses are the relevant comparisons, rather than its consumer cards and mortgage operations.

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  • Piper Sandler competes with Raymond James for fees from advising companies on deals, helping issuers sell stocks and bonds, arranging public financing and handling institutional securities trades. Its middle-market corporate advisory and municipal issuance business offer focused comparisons for Raymond James’s capital-markets activity.

  • Jefferies Financial Group competes with Raymond James for clients needing deal advice, help issuing securities, and institutional stock and bond trading. Watch its Investment Banking and Capital Markets results for a comparison with Raymond James’s transaction-driven capital-markets revenue.

  • Northern Trust competes with Raymond James for affluent clients paying for wealth and investment management, trust-related services and banking. Its Wealth Management client assets are the closer comparison for Raymond James, distinct from Northern Trust’s large institutional asset-servicing business.

  • JPMorgan Chase competes with Raymond James for asset and wealth management clients, corporate deal and financing work, and commercial banking business. Its Asset & Wealth Management and Commercial & Investment Bank results are the relevant comparisons for Raymond James, rather than its consumer banking results.

  • Goldman Sachs competes with Raymond James for deal-advisory fees, securities issuance, institutional trading and asset and wealth management clients. Its advisory and stock-and-bond underwriting fees offer a concrete comparison for Raymond James’s investment-banking revenue.

  • Houlihan Lokey competes with Raymond James for fees from helping companies buy or sell businesses and arrange capital, particularly in mid-cap deals. Most of its Corporate Finance engagements involve transactions below $1 billion, making that division a focused comparison for Raymond James’s M&A and advisory business.

  • Lincoln International explicitly names Raymond James as a rival for advisory work helping private-company owners and private-capital investors buy, sell and finance businesses. Its M&A, capital advisory and private-fundraising activity is the relevant comparison for Raymond James’s private-capital and corporate advisory work.

  • Lazard competes with Raymond James for corporate financial-advisory clients and for retail and institutional investors needing asset management. Lazard must win and negotiate each advisory engagement separately, so new mandates are worth watching alongside Raymond James’s transaction-dependent investment-banking revenue.

  • Moelis competes with Raymond James for fees from advising companies and financial sponsors on M&A, financing and private capital. Because Moelis primarily advises rather than lends or trades securities, its advisory results offer a more focused comparison for Raymond James’s M&A and advisory revenue.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Northern Trust Corp earningsNTRS

    Northern Trust serves affluent clients through wealth management, so its assets and related revenue will show how demand is holding up in a client market Raymond James also competes for.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    LPL Financial Holdings Inc. earningsLPLA

    LPL Financial provides independent advisors with platforms for client assets, trades and cash, so its results will show how that business competes with Raymond James’s advisory and cash-servicing services.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Raymond James Financial, Inc. earningsThis company

    Raymond James’s Private Client Group earns fees from advisors’ services and client assets, and this report shows whether asset growth is translating into more revenue and profit.

  2. Time to be announced

    Houlihan Lokey, Inc. earningsHLI

    Houlihan Lokey advises companies on deals and financing through its Corporate Finance business, and its transactions and revenue will show what the middle-market deal environment may mean for Raymond James’s advisory work.

  3. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Raymond James earns interest on client cash, margin loans and bank loans, and fees on swept client deposits, so short-term rates affect what it earns relative to what it pays clients and depositors.