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What happened with SF today?

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Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
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Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
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The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SF in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Stifel Financial Corp.’s wealth-management business supplies most of its revenue. Financial advisors help private clients choose investments, plan their finances and manage portfolios. Clients pay commissions on transactions or ongoing fees based on account values; these asset-based fees are the wealth business’s largest revenue source. Brokerage clients’ uninvested cash deposited at Stifel Bancorp is a primary source of funding for loans and investment securities. The bank earns the difference between interest received on those assets and interest paid for funding.

Stifel also helps companies and municipalities raise money by issuing shares or bonds, and advises companies on mergers and acquisitions, earning underwriting and advisory fees. Institutional investors use its research and securities-trading services. Stifel earns commissions and trading income from this activity, holding securities mainly to facilitate client trades rather than to pursue proprietary trading profits.

Revenue depends on client asset values and flows, trading activity, completed financing and advisory transactions, and the bank’s interest spread. Retaining advisors and other client-facing professionals matters because clients may follow them elsewhere. No single client supplies a material share of any business segment’s revenue, but banking relies heavily on client deposits. Regulatory capital requirements constrain growth and limit the funds bank and brokerage subsidiaries can send to the parent company.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SF’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SF says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Raymond James competes with Stifel for clients who pay advisors to manage investments, use banking services and need help raising money or trading securities. Its investment-management revenue offers a comparison for Stifel’s client-asset business, while underwriting revenue reflects their shared exposure to securities issuance.

  • Morgan Stanley competes with Stifel for individuals paying for advisor-led wealth and investment management, and for corporations and institutions needing financing and securities services. Watch its wealth-management and institutional-securities businesses separately to distinguish client-asset conditions from corporate financing and trading activity.

  • Oppenheimer competes with Stifel for private clients paying trading commissions or account-based fees, and for institutions buying research and trade execution. Its reported shift toward fee-based accounts is worth watching alongside Stifel’s fees tied to client asset values.

  • Ameriprise competes with Stifel for retail clients and experienced advisors, using advisor networks to sell financial planning, brokerage, managed accounts and banking services. Its advisor retention is especially relevant to Stifel’s expansion through recruiting advisors with established client relationships.

  • Piper Sandler competes with Stifel for fees from advising companies on deals, helping companies and municipalities sell securities, and executing institutional trades. Its municipal issuance business offers a focused comparison for Stifel’s work raising money for states and cities through bond offerings.

  • Jefferies competes with Stifel for corporate advisory fees, securities issuance work and institutional stock and bond trades. Its Investment Banking and Capital Markets results provide a closer comparison for Stifel’s institutional business than its separate asset-management investments do.

  • Schwab competes with Stifel for investors’ brokerage and managed assets; both also earn revenue from client banking activity. Watch Schwab’s net interest revenue and bank deposit account fees alongside Stifel’s deposit-program fees and margin-loan income, which Stifel says can fall when interest rates decline.

  • Goldman Sachs competes with Stifel for fees from corporate advice and securities issuance, institutional trading business and wealth-management clients. Its advisory and stock and bond underwriting fees offer a specific read on the deal and financing activity that also drives Stifel’s investment-banking revenue.

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  • Bank of America competes with Stifel for private clients paying for investment management and brokerage, companies seeking investment-banking advice, and institutional trading customers. Its wealth-management client balances provide a comparison for Stifel’s asset-based fee business, rather than its much broader consumer banking operations.

  • Houlihan Lokey competes with Stifel for fees from helping companies buy, sell and raise capital, with most of its Corporate Finance engagements involving transactions below US$1 billion. Watch that business for the mid-cap deal market, not for Stifel’s brokerage activity: Houlihan Lokey does not sell or trade securities.

  • Evercore competes with Stifel for corporate fees from advising on deals and helping sell securities, making it a useful comparison for Stifel’s investment-banking cycle. Its advisory and underwriting transaction fees are the line to watch alongside Stifel’s revenue from completed advisory deals and capital raising.

  • Lazard competes with Stifel for financial-advisory clients and assets to manage, but lacks Stifel’s broad retail brokerage platform. Its advisory engagements are won and priced individually, so new corporate mandates are a more relevant comparison for Stifel’s deal-fee business than a recurring contract backlog.

  • Moelis competes with Stifel for fees from advising companies on mergers and financing, without Stifel’s wealth-management and banking businesses. Its completed advisory engagements speak to Stifel’s corporate deal business, rather than revenue from managing private-client assets.

  • Lincoln International explicitly names Stifel as a rival for advisory fees in private capital markets, helping private-company owners and investors buy, sell and raise money. Its M&A and capital-advisory work is the relevant comparison for Stifel, distinct from Lincoln’s recurring portfolio valuations.

  • Interactive Brokers competes with Stifel for individual and institutional brokerage customers, using automated systems to place and complete trades rather than Stifel’s advisor-led service. Its low-cost execution and ability to handle larger trade volumes with little human intervention show the competing service model facing Stifel’s commission business.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Stifel Financial Corp. earningsThis company

    Stifel earns wealth-management revenue from client assets and transactions, and this report will show whether that revenue is turning into more pretax income.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Raymond James Financial, Inc. earningsRJF

    Raymond James’s wealth-management revenue will show whether client assets are supporting fees, a key comparison for Stifel’s asset-based fee business.

  2. Time to be announced

    Houlihan Lokey, Inc. earningsHLI

    Houlihan Lokey’s Corporate Finance business focuses on many deals below US$1 billion, giving Stifel readers a view of the mid-sized deal market for advisory and capital-raising fees.

  3. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Stifel earns net interest income—the interest earned on assets minus what it pays for funding—and rate changes also affect brokerage earnings and client behavior.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Ameriprise Financial, Inc. earningsAMP

    Ameriprise’s advisor retention will show how well it holds onto client relationships, a useful read on the competition Stifel faces when recruiting experienced advisors.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    Piper Sandler Companies earningsPIPR

    Piper Sandler’s municipal bond business will show whether state and city issuance is active, a direct read on the market for Stifel’s public-finance underwriting.