Stock daily read

What happened with HLI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HLI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Most of Houlihan Lokey’s revenue comes from Corporate Finance, which advises companies and private equity clients on buying or selling businesses and raising capital. Much of this work involves mid-sized transactions, and most assignments are in the United States. The company helps clients find buyers, sellers, lenders and investors, but does not lend to clients or commit its own capital to their transactions.

Financial Restructuring is its other major advisory business. Companies struggling with debt, their creditors and other involved parties pay it to help negotiate debt changes, reorganize through bankruptcy or sell assets. Its smaller Financial and Valuation Advisory practice values businesses and assets, provides financial opinions on transactions and performs related financial analysis.

Clients can pay fees when an assignment begins, as work progresses or when a transaction completes. Most Corporate Finance and Financial Restructuring revenue comes from completion fees, so earnings depend heavily on deals closing and clients obtaining financing. Some restructuring fees also require bankruptcy-court approval. Each assignment is won separately rather than supplied by long-term revenue contracts, making senior professionals’ client relationships important. Restructuring opportunities often increase when merger and financing activity weakens, giving the businesses different sources of demand.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HLI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HLI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Lincoln International competes with Houlihan Lokey for fees from private-company owners and private-capital investors seeking help buying or selling businesses, raising money and valuing assets. Its transaction opinions and portfolio valuations also overlap with Houlihan Lokey’s valuation and financial-opinion work.

  • Moelis competes with Houlihan Lokey for companies’ and financial sponsors’ fees to advise on business sales, financing and restructuring. Moelis’s work helping clients reshape their debt overlaps with Houlihan Lokey’s advice to companies and creditors, not just its M&A business.

  • PJT Partners and Houlihan Lokey seek advisory fees from overlapping companies, financial sponsors and creditors for M&A, debt adjustments and bankruptcy restructurings. Watch PJT’s Restructuring and Special Situations work: it serves the same kinds of clients that pay Houlihan Lokey to negotiate debt changes in or outside bankruptcy.

  • Perella Weinberg Partners competes with Houlihan Lokey for fees from companies, financial sponsors and creditors seeking independent advice on M&A, restructuring and financing. Its work helping clients change debt obligations and arrange financing is the relevant overlap with Houlihan Lokey’s restructuring and capital-solutions businesses.

  • Evercore competes with Houlihan Lokey as an independent investment bank paid by corporate clients for transaction advice. Watch its advisory transaction fees rather than announced deal value alone: most Houlihan Lokey corporate-finance revenue comes from completion fees, so deals that fail to close limit what it earns.

  • Piper Sandler competes with Houlihan Lokey for fees from middle-market companies and financial sponsors needing M&A, financing and restructuring advice. Its corporate and sponsor assignments are the relevant comparison, rather than its work raising money for government and nonprofit clients.

  • Lazard’s Financial Advisory business competes with Houlihan Lokey for corporate clients’ advisory fees, but Lazard also earns revenue from managing assets. Watch its new and repeat advisory engagements rather than total revenue: each advisory assignment is won separately, with no long-term contracted revenue source.

  • Jefferies competes with Houlihan Lokey for clients paying for financial advice and help raising capital, while also trading securities and managing assets. Its financial-advisory and underwriting work is the closer comparison for Houlihan Lokey, not results from its trading or own investments.

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  • Stifel’s investment-banking business competes with Houlihan Lokey for clients’ advisory fees, but wealth management, trading and banking also contribute to Stifel’s results. Watch investment banking within its Institutional Group; that group also includes research and securities trading, so even its results are broader than the advisory overlap.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Houlihan Lokey, Inc. earningsThis company

    Much of Houlihan Lokey’s Corporate Finance revenue depends on deals closing, and this report will show whether that fee income is keeping pace with compensation costs.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Houlihan Lokey’s fees for advising companies and investors on deals and restructurings depend in part on how interest rates affect clients’ borrowing costs and whether transactions go ahead.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    Piper Sandler Companies earningsPIPR

    Piper Sandler’s report will show whether middle-market companies and financial sponsors are still paying for M&A and financing advice, work that also brings Houlihan Lokey advisory fees.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    PJT Partners Inc. earningsPJT

    PJT Partners advises the same kinds of companies, creditors and investors as Houlihan Lokey’s Financial Restructuring business, so its report can show both demand for debt-restructuring advice and competition for that work.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Lincoln International, Inc. earningsLCLN

    Lincoln International serves private-company owners and investors who also buy Houlihan Lokey’s transaction advice and valuation work, so its report can show whether demand spans both services.