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What happened with PANW today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PANW in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Palo Alto Networks helps businesses and government agencies protect their networks, cloud environments and users. It combines security capabilities into integrated platforms so customers can replace separate security tools. Customers buy hardware or software firewalls, subscribe to security capabilities and pay for ongoing updates and support. Its offerings include Cortex for security operations, CyberArk for identity security and Chronosphere for monitoring how applications and infrastructure operate.

Subscriptions and support generate most of its revenue; hardware and software-license sales make up a smaller share. Sales primarily flow through distributors, which buy from Palo Alto Networks and sell to resellers serving end-customers. No single end-customer dominates revenue, but sales through two distributors account for a substantial share, making those channel relationships important.

The business depends on customers renewing subscriptions and support and buying more capabilities; they are not required to renew after their initial contracts. Its cloud services also rely on third-party cloud providers. Export controls and sanctions restrict where some products can be sold, while local security approvals and data requirements can limit sales, deployment or support in particular markets.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PANW’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PANW says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Fortinet challenges Palo Alto Networks for enterprise spending on network protection, cloud-delivered secure access and security operations, with both selling integrated security platforms. Watch Fortinet's Security Fabric across these areas rather than treating it as only a firewall rival.

  • CrowdStrike Holdings competes for the enterprise subscriptions that Palo Alto Networks targets with endpoint protection and Cortex security operations. Watch customers adding Falcon modules: its platform reuses data from one sensor across detection, investigation and response without requiring extra sensors.

  • Zscaler competes with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise subscriptions that protect users' access to applications through the cloud, including SASE services. Its Zero Trust Exchange connects users and devices only to authorized applications rather than the corporate network—the access model to watch against Palo Alto Networks' offerings.

  • Check Point Software Technologies competes directly with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise firewall purchases, security subscriptions and continuing gateway support. Watch its security-subscription revenue separately from products and licenses and from software updates and maintenance; those lines distinguish ongoing security spending from product purchases.

  • Netskope, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks for customers buying cloud-delivered network security, selling security and networking access through Netskope One subscriptions. Its subscription revenue is recognized over contracts typically lasting one to three years, so that revenue line reflects services delivered over time rather than hardware shipments.

  • Cisco competes with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise security and software-monitoring deployments, but also sells a much broader range of networking hardware and software. Watch Cisco's Security and Observability businesses rather than using its switching, routing and server business as a direct read on Palo Alto Networks.

  • Microsoft puts bundling pressure on Palo Alto Networks by competing for enterprise security customers within its broader software and cloud business. Azure is also a sales channel for Palo Alto Networks' VM-Series virtual firewalls, so the relationship includes marketplace sales as well as rivalry.

  • SentinelOne competes with Palo Alto Networks' endpoint protection and Cortex products by selling enterprises a platform covering endpoints, cloud security and security analytics. Watch adoption of Singularity's broader tiers, which extend beyond basic endpoint protection; pricing generally follows each protected endpoint, server, virtual machine or host.

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  • SailPoint, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks' CyberArk offerings for enterprise spending on securing identities and controlling access. Watch both Identity Security Cloud and customer-hosted IdentityIQ, which serves organizations unable or not ready to move identity security to cloud software.

  • Okta competes for enterprise identity-security subscriptions against Palo Alto Networks' portfolio incorporating CyberArk. Watch existing customers adding users and products to Okta and Auth0 subscriptions, while distinguishing that expansion from workforce changes that can also raise or lower the number of managed identities.

  • Alphabet's Google Cloud security business competes with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise protection, including cloud security through Wiz. Watch that business rather than Google's advertising results, which primarily reflect payments from advertisers, not enterprise security customers.

  • Elastic N.V. competes for customers' security-analysis and software-monitoring spending against Palo Alto Networks' Cortex and Chronosphere offerings. Watch usage expansion in Elastic Security and Elastic Observability: its paid subscriptions use resource-based pricing, and customers can grow spending by increasing usage or adding use cases.

  • Datadog competes with Palo Alto Networks' Chronosphere and cloud-security offerings by selling customers cloud software that monitors applications and detects security issues. Watch customers combining monitoring, log management and security products, which lets Datadog connect data across those functions.

  • Dynatrace, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks' Chronosphere for enterprise spending on collecting operational data and monitoring software. Watch adoption of its cloud-delivered platform alongside Dynatrace Managed, which serves customers wanting control over where their data resides.

  • Tenable Holdings, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise spending on cloud security and finding and prioritizing security weaknesses. Watch Tenable One's cloud coverage and attack-path guidance, which help customers decide which exposures to fix first.

  • Qualys, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks for enterprise cloud-security, threat-detection and broader security-platform subscriptions. Watch customers adding Qualys Cloud Apps beyond their initial purchase, as the platform lets them combine vulnerability management, threat response and cloud security over time.

  • Rapid7, Inc. competes with Palo Alto Networks' cloud-security and Cortex offerings by selling customers a platform that identifies exposures, detects threats and supports response. Watch Command Platform adoption across those tasks; its shared cloud, endpoint and network data connects finding weaknesses with security teams' remediation and response work.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Fortinet, Inc. earningsFTNT

    Fortinet’s report will show whether enterprises are still buying an integrated network-security platform, where it competes with Palo Alto Networks for firewall, cloud-access and security-operations budgets.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Datadog, Inc. earningsDDOG

    Datadog’s report will show whether customers deepen use of monitoring, log-management and security products, competing with Palo Alto Networks for observability and security-analysis spending.

in 29 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. earningsThis company

    Palo Alto Networks earns most of its revenue from ongoing subscriptions and support, and this report will show whether growth in active contracts is translating into sales without further margin erosion.

in 35 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Zscaler, Inc. earningsZS

    Zscaler’s report will show whether enterprises keep adopting cloud-delivered secure access, where it competes with Palo Alto Networks for subscriptions protecting access to applications.

in 42 daysTue, Dec 1

  1. Time to be announced

    CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. earningsCRWD

    CrowdStrike’s report will show whether customers keep adding Falcon modules, as it competes with Palo Alto Networks for endpoint-protection and security-operations subscriptions.

in 49 daysTue, Dec 8

  1. Time to be announced

    SailPoint, Inc. earningsSAIL

    SailPoint’s report will show whether enterprises keep spending on identity security across cloud and customer-hosted deployments, where it competes with Palo Alto Networks’ CyberArk business.