CHKP in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with CHKP today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Check Point Software Technologies helps businesses and service providers protect their networks, cloud systems and devices from cyberattacks. Its Infinity security architecture brings these protections together. Security gateways combine hardware and software to control network traffic and block threats, using threat information from its ThreatCloud AI system. These appliances and internet security products, together with their related services, account for most of its revenue.
Customers pay for products and licenses, then for access to security services and for continued upgrades, technical support and hardware support. Security subscriptions are the largest revenue category; together with software updates and maintenance, they contribute substantially more revenue than product and license sales. Check Point mainly reaches customers through distributors, which sell to resellers and service providers that supply the end users.
A small group of distributors accounts for much of its sales, so Check Point depends on those partners to keep buying and selling its offerings. Their contracts require no minimum purchases and allow them to sell competing products. Encryption in certain products also limits international sales: exports from the United States require a license or an applicable exception, and some destinations and buyers are prohibited.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Fortinet competes directly with Check Point for enterprise purchases of security gateways and platforms that combine networking with protection. Watch Fortinet's secure-networking business for signs of competition facing Check Point's gateways.
Palo Alto Networks competes with Check Point for enterprises bringing network, cloud and endpoint protection onto one platform. Its progress replacing customers' separate security products is the development to watch for Check Point's Infinity platform.
Zscaler competes with Check Point's network-security and Zero Trust offerings by selling cloud subscriptions that check users and devices before allowing access to applications. Watch adoption among large enterprises and government agencies, customers buying this alternative approach to secure access.
Netskope, Inc. competes for the enterprise security spending that Check Point serves, offering a cloud-delivered platform for secure access and data protection against Check Point's network and cloud security.
Cisco competes with Check Point for enterprise purchases of firewalls and security subscriptions, overlapping directly with Check Point's security gateways and subscription offerings.
CrowdStrike competes with Check Point for enterprise spending on endpoint and cloud protection through subscriptions to its Falcon platform. Watch customers adding Falcon modules: its sensor reuses collected data across security functions without requiring extra sensors.
SentinelOne competes with Check Point for enterprise purchases of endpoint and cloud-security platforms. Its Singularity tiers extend from basic endpoint protection to broader cloud and identity security, so watch demand for those broader offerings.
Cloudflare competes with Check Point for business spending on cloud-delivered application protection and secure enterprise access. Watch customers adding products to Cloudflare's application-services suite, which lets them start with one product and expand over time.
Microsoft competes for enterprise protection spending through Defender and email-security offerings that overlap with Check Point's endpoint, cloud and email protection.
Tenable competes for enterprise spending on finding and prioritizing security weaknesses—the exposure-management work supporting Check Point's CTEM growth. Watch demand for Tenable One, which helps enterprises identify weaknesses and decide what to fix first.
Rapid7 competes with Check Point for enterprise budgets to manage security exposures and protect against cloud threats. Watch its Command Platform, which combines finding weaknesses with detecting and responding to threats—the same spending areas Check Point addresses.
Qualys competes with Check Point for enterprise security teams' purchases of cloud protection and tools to identify and reduce security exposures. Watch customers expanding their Qualys Cloud Apps subscriptions into cloud security and risk remediation.
Fortinet, Inc. earningsFTNT
Fortinet's report will show how demand for secure-networking products is holding up in the security-gateway market where it competes directly with Check Point.
Watch Fortinet's secure-networking business, especially what it indicates about demand for security gateways and platforms. Stronger results would suggest enterprises are still buying network protection, supporting demand in the market Check Point serves; weaker results would point to a harder market, but would not alone prove how Check Point's sales or competitive position changed.
Tenable Holdings, Inc. earningsTENB
Tenable's report will show whether enterprises are spending more to find and prioritize security weaknesses, a market connected to Check Point's exposure-management push.
Watch demand for Tenable One and whether customers expand those subscriptions. Stronger demand and more subscription expansion would show enterprises are putting more budget toward finding and prioritizing security weaknesses, supporting Check Point's effort in exposure management. Weaker demand would suggest this spending is not yet broadening, so the market opportunity should not be mistaken for proven demand.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s decision on short-term interest rates matters to Check Point because it can change the interest earned on its cash, deposits and fixed-income investments, an important source of net income.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed signals higher rates, Check Point may earn more interest as cash and investments reprice, though the effect depends on when and how much they reset.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed signals lower rates, Check Point may earn less interest as cash and investments reprice, though the effect depends on when and how much they reset.
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd earningsThis company
Security subscriptions are Check Point's largest revenue stream, and this report will show whether they can keep driving growth while the business holds its operating margin.
Compare growth in security subscriptions with growth in software updates and maintenance, and in products and licenses; then check the operating margin, the share of revenue left after operating expenses. Faster subscription growth with a steady or rising margin would show recurring service revenue expanding without costs eating away the gains. Slower subscriptions, no pickup in the other streams, and a narrowing margin would show a weaker growth base and more revenue consumed by operating costs.
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. earningsPANW
Palo Alto Networks' report will show whether enterprises are replacing separate network, cloud, and endpoint protections with one platform, a contest that directly involves Check Point's Infinity platform.
Watch whether Palo Alto Networks continues winning customers that replace separately purchased security products with its platform. More replacements and broader platform adoption would show enterprises are more willing to combine network, cloud, and endpoint protection, putting Check Point's Infinity platform in the same consolidation contest. Slower progress would suggest less momentum toward one platform and more room for separate purchases.
Zscaler, Inc. earningsZS
Zscaler's report will show whether large enterprises and government agencies are adopting cloud subscriptions that control application access, an alternative competing for spending with Check Point's network security products.
Watch adoption of Zscaler's cloud-delivered secure-access service among large enterprises and government agencies. Stronger adoption would show more customers prefer subscriptions that check users and devices before granting application access, making this alternative more compelling against Check Point's network security business. Weaker adoption would mean less evidence that customers are shifting to this model.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. earningsCRWD
CrowdStrike's report will show whether customers keep adding security modules to Falcon, signaling demand for bundled endpoint and cloud protection that overlaps with Check Point's business.
Watch how often customers add Falcon modules; its sensor can reuse collected data across security functions without requiring extra sensors. More module additions would show customers are expanding endpoint and cloud protection on one platform, intensifying competition for Check Point in bundled security purchases. Slower additions would point to less momentum for that expansion model.