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What happened with FTNT today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FTNT in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Fortinet helps businesses and government organizations connect their networks while protecting them from cyberattacks. Its FortiGate firewalls serve locations ranging from branch offices to data centers and cloud environments. FortiOS, its common operating system, lets customers manage networking and security together. Fortinet also supplies cloud-delivered security and tools for security operations.

Customers buy hardware or software and often add FortiGuard security subscriptions and FortiCare technical support. Services bring in more revenue than product sales, making new deployments and subscription renewals important to the business. Nearly all revenue reaches Fortinet through channel partners: distributors buy from Fortinet, then sell to resellers and service providers that supply end customers or operate hosted services. A few distributors account for a large share of revenue, with the largest alone contributing a substantial portion.

Fortinet also depends on outside manufacturers, mainly in Taiwan, to supply its hardware. Encryption export controls restrict where some products can be sold and may require licenses. China has instructed domestic companies in certain industries not to use Fortinet and other specified foreign cybersecurity products, limiting access to those customers.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FTNT’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FTNT says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Palo Alto Networks challenges Fortinet for enterprise customers that want network, cloud and security-operations protection from one integrated platform. Watch its progress in replacing customers’ separate security products with a broader platform—the same consolidation Fortinet pursues.

  • Check Point Software Technologies competes directly with Fortinet for customers buying network-protection gateways and ongoing security subscriptions, against FortiGate appliances and FortiGuard services. Its security-subscription revenue is the clearest line to watch alongside Fortinet’s subscription business.

  • Zscaler competes with Fortinet for enterprise and government customers paying to secure access to internet and private applications through the cloud, a service sold as SASE. Watch adoption of Zscaler’s Zero Trust SASE subscriptions against Fortinet’s unified SASE and secure-access services.

  • Netskope competes with Fortinet for customers paying for cloud-based security and networking, challenging Fortinet’s unified SASE offering. Its Netskope One subscription revenue reflects services delivered over typically one-to-three-year contracts, rather than hardware sales.

  • Cisco can displace Fortinet appliances when enterprise customers choose security built into the networking hardware and software they already buy from Cisco. Watch bundled network protection: customers with existing Cisco networks and vendor relationships may accept more limited built-in security instead of adding Fortinet equipment.

  • CrowdStrike competes with Fortinet for enterprise spending on detecting, investigating and responding to security threats. Customers subscribe to its Falcon platform, whose ability to add security functions without deploying more sensors is worth watching against Fortinet’s security-operations offerings.

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise competes with Fortinet for enterprise purchases of networking and security products and services, including Fortinet’s secure networking and cloud-based secure access, or SASE. Watch HPE’s Networking business for progress with its end-to-end networking and security portfolio.

  • Cloudflare competes with Fortinet for businesses buying cloud-delivered application and network protection and secure access, or SASE. Watch customers adding more products to Cloudflare’s integrated suite after starting with one, extending its role in their security spending.

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  • F5 competes with Fortinet for enterprise customers paying to protect applications by filtering web attacks, controlling access and mitigating traffic-flooding attacks, or DDoS. Watch F5’s Distributed Cloud Services for customers choosing subscription-based protection rather than deployed hardware or software.

  • SentinelOne competes with Fortinet for customers buying protection for computers and servers and tools to run security operations. Its endpoint-protection and security-operations platform challenges Fortinet’s endpoint and SecOps products.

  • Extreme Networks competes with Fortinet for enterprise purchases of wired, wireless and software-managed wide-area networking, or SD-WAN. Its networking-equipment sales, software subscriptions and maintenance contracts are the revenue lines to watch against Fortinet’s switches, wireless access points and SD-WAN offerings.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    F5, Inc. earningsFFIV

    F5's report will show whether enterprises are choosing its cloud-based application-protection subscriptions over deployed products, a spending choice that also matters to Fortinet.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Fortinet, Inc. earningsThis company

    Fortinet recognizes security subscription and support revenue over time, so this report shows whether new orders are replenishing the business that will drive future revenue.

  2. Time to be announced

    Extreme Networks earningsEXTR

    Extreme Networks' report will show enterprise demand for wired, wireless and software-managed networking, where Fortinet sells switches, access points and SD-WAN.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced

    Check Point Software Technologies Ltd earningsCHKP

    Check Point's security-subscription revenue will show whether customers keep paying for network protection, a budget that Fortinet also seeks through FortiGuard.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    Cisco Systems, Inc. earningsCSCO

    Cisco's report will show whether customers are taking more security bundled with its networking products instead of buying separate Fortinet appliances.

in 29 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. earningsPANW

    Palo Alto Networks' report will show whether enterprises are consolidating separate security products onto one platform, a strategy that competes with Fortinet for security spending.

in 35 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Zscaler, Inc. earningsZS

    Zscaler's report will show enterprise adoption of cloud-based secure-access subscriptions, a service that competes directly with Fortinet's unified SASE.

in 42 daysTue, Dec 1

  1. Time to be announced

    CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. earningsCRWD

    CrowdStrike's report will show whether customers are adding more security functions to its Falcon platform, competing for spending that could go to Fortinet's security-operations products.