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What happened with DT today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

DT in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Dynatrace helps large enterprises understand how their software applications and underlying computing systems are performing, what causes failures and how those problems affect users. Its Grail technology brings operational, security and business data together, while Smartscape maps connections between systems to help explain where problems originate.

Most revenue comes from platform subscriptions. Customers mainly use the cloud-hosted service, though Dynatrace Managed lets them run the platform on their own infrastructure when they need control over data location. Under Dynatrace Platform Subscription, customers commit to a minimum annual spend and pay according to usage; additional consumption is billed monthly at the same rates. Existing customers can also subscribe to individual capabilities.

Dynatrace sells directly and through partners and cloud marketplaces. No single end customer dominates revenue, but one channel partner contributes a meaningful share. The business depends on customers renewing and expanding usage, and on compatibility with their changing software environments. Cloud delivery relies on providers including AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Privacy and data-localization rules constrain how data can be processed and stored, while export controls and sanctions restrict some sales and deployments.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in DT’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

DT says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Dynatrace’s results hinge on enterprise adoption and usage of software that monitors applications and infrastructure, with privately held New Relic and Grafana also principal competitors to watch.

  • Datadog competes directly with Dynatrace for customers paying to monitor cloud applications, infrastructure, logs and security. Watch customers’ adoption of multiple Datadog products, which combine those signals in one view—the same platform approach Dynatrace pursues with Grail.

  • Elastic N.V. competes with Dynatrace for enterprise customers paying to monitor and analyze data from applications and infrastructure through Elastic Observability. Watch expansion in that use case: Elastic’s subscriptions charge for resources used, so greater customer usage matters more to this rivalry than growth in its unrelated search offerings.

  • Cisco’s AppDynamics and Splunk compete with Dynatrace for enterprise spending on application monitoring and observability. For this rivalry, watch those software offerings rather than Cisco’s broader networking hardware business.

  • Palo Alto Networks competes with Dynatrace through its acquired Chronosphere monitoring business and adjacent enterprise security offerings. Watch how it packages monitoring with its integrated security platforms, which aim to replace customers’ separate tools; Dynatrace identifies this consolidation as a source of competitive pressure.

  • PagerDuty and Dynatrace both address enterprise spending on application reliability: Dynatrace detects problems and supports automated operations, while PagerDuty coordinates the response to technology signals. Watch enterprise customers’ expansion of paid PagerDuty users and usage credits as a sign of demand for automated incident response.

  • Netscout Systems Inc competes with Dynatrace for enterprise budgets to monitor performance and keep digital services running, using data captured from network packets rather than Dynatrace’s mapping of application and infrastructure dependencies. Watch its enterprise service-assurance business, rather than telecom-provider or cybersecurity sales, for the closest overlap.

  • ServiceNow and Dynatrace both serve enterprises investing in automated IT operations: ServiceNow automates operational workflows, while Dynatrace monitors applications and supports AI-driven action. Watch ServiceNow’s Technology products and AI-enhanced workflows for evidence of that demand, rather than its customer-service or HR offerings.

  • IBM’s Instana software competes with Dynatrace for enterprise budgets to monitor application performance and understand how applications are running.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    SERVICENOW, INC. earningsNOW

    ServiceNow’s Technology products and AI-enhanced workflows will show whether enterprises are still funding IT-operations automation, an area served by Dynatrace.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Dynatrace, Inc. earningsThis company

    Dynatrace earns most of its revenue from subscriptions, and this report will show whether growing customer use is outpacing rising cloud-hosting costs.

  2. Time to be announced

    Datadog, Inc. earningsDDOG

    Datadog competes directly with Dynatrace for cloud-application monitoring budgets, and its report will show whether customers are still adopting multiple products on one platform.