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What happened with PD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

PagerDuty helps organizations respond when their technology systems have problems. Its PagerDuty Operations Cloud connects with customers’ monitoring tools and other software, gathers signals, and coordinates responses across people and automated systems. The platform provides alerts during critical events and can automatically correct system problems.

Customers pay mainly for cloud-hosted software subscriptions, and incident management subscriptions account for most revenue. Enterprise customers supply the majority of revenue. Pricing traditionally depends on the number of users and the subscription level; PagerDuty has also introduced a model combining user seats with usage credits for access to the broader platform. Annual subscriptions are generally billed in advance. Revenue depends on customers renewing and expanding their subscriptions through more users, added functionality, or adoption across more departments.

The platform also depends on maintaining connections with third-party tools. Access to some customers requires regulatory certification: PagerDuty is seeking FedRAMP authorization for Operations Cloud, without which it cannot sell that offering to certain public-sector customers or private-sector customers whose intended uses require it.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Datadog’s OnCall and Bits AI SRE Agent compete for the software operations teams’ incident-response spending that PagerDuty serves. Watch adoption of these products within Datadog’s cloud monitoring business, rather than treating all its monitoring and security sales as direct competition.

  • Atlassian’s Jira Service Management competes with PagerDuty for IT operations teams paying to manage incidents and coordinate on-call responses.

  • ServiceNow and PagerDuty both sell enterprise IT teams software to manage technology operations and automate responses. Watch ServiceNow’s Technology products and AI-enhanced workflows for those customers, who account for most of PagerDuty’s revenue.

  • Freshworks Inc.’s FireHydrant competes with PagerDuty for engineering and IT operations teams’ spending on software to manage incidents and coordinate responses.

  • Dynatrace, Inc. and PagerDuty both serve enterprise spending on reliable digital services: Dynatrace analyzes application and infrastructure data, while PagerDuty coordinates responses to operational signals. Watch demand for Dynatrace’s monitoring platform as a sign of spending on identifying problems, rather than on the incident response PagerDuty sells.

  • Elastic N.V. and PagerDuty serve different parts of digital operations spending: customers pay for Elastic Observability to identify problems and PagerDuty to coordinate responses. Watch customers expanding their use of Elastic Observability for a view of monitoring demand, distinct from Elastic’s search and security businesses.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    SERVICENOW, INC. earningsNOW

    ServiceNow's report will show whether large enterprises are still spending on technology-operations software and AI workflows, the same buyers PagerDuty relies on.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Freshworks Inc. earningsFRSH

    Freshworks' report can offer clues about engineering and IT teams' spending on incident-management software, a budget PagerDuty also competes for, though company-wide results cannot by themselves establish FireHydrant's performance.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Dynatrace, Inc. earningsDT

    Dynatrace's report will show whether enterprises are still buying application and infrastructure monitoring, a neighboring area of digital-operations spending to PagerDuty's incident response.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    PagerDuty, Inc. earningsThis company

    PagerDuty's report will show whether customers expanding their use and buying more products can offset seat reductions and churn to lift recurring revenue.