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What happened with ESTC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ESTC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Elastic N.V. helps businesses, educational institutions and government agencies find information, keep applications and infrastructure running, and identify cyber threats. Its platform brings data together for search, analysis and visualization. Elasticsearch powers the platform, while Search & AI, Elastic Observability and Elastic Security apply it to those different needs.

Customers can use Elastic Cloud Hosted or Elastic Cloud Serverless, or run Elastic Self-Managed in their own environments. Some features are free; paid subscriptions provide additional features and support, with pricing tied to computing resources. Most cloud subscriptions charge according to consumption. Subscriptions supply nearly all revenue, with consulting and training contributing a smaller share.

The business depends on turning free users into paying customers, retaining subscribers and expanding their usage or use cases. Elastic also relies on third-party cloud infrastructure and partners to deliver services and reach buyers. Amazon, Google and Microsoft jointly market, sell and deliver Elastic Cloud; one unnamed channel partner accounts for a meaningful share of total revenue. Export controls and sanctions can require licenses or prevent sales to certain countries, users or uses.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ESTC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ESTC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Elastic N.V.’s results hinge on customers adopting search, observability and security workloads, with Splunk another important competitor to watch in observability and security.

  • Datadog competes with Elastic N.V. for the same IT and engineering teams paying to manage logs, monitor applications and secure cloud systems. Watch adoption of Datadog’s combined monitoring and security products, which address work Elastic also serves.

  • Dynatrace, Inc. competes with Elastic N.V. for enterprise IT teams paying to analyze application and infrastructure monitoring data. Its Grail platform brings logs, traces and metrics into one data layer, making customer adoption a useful measure of demand for consolidated monitoring tools.

  • MongoDB competes with Elastic N.V. for developers building search and AI features on platforms that store data as documents. Customers pay MongoDB to run and manage Atlas in the cloud; Atlas revenue is the line to watch, though it covers broader database work as well as the search and AI overlap.

  • CrowdStrike Holdings competes with Elastic N.V. for enterprise spending on software that collects system data to detect, investigate and respond to threats. Customers subscribe to Falcon, whose reuse of collected data across security modules makes adoption of additional modules worth watching alongside Elastic Security.

  • Palo Alto Networks competes with Elastic N.V. when enterprise security teams replace separate threat-detection and security-analysis tools with integrated platforms. It sells largely through distributors and resellers, so watch customer uptake of its integrated security platforms rather than treating all its sales as an Elastic comparison.

  • Amazon’s AWS both hosts Elastic Cloud and sells customers competing managed services built from a separate version of Elastic’s platform. Those services lack Elastic support and its proprietary features, making AWS’s competing service offerings more relevant to Elastic holders than Amazon’s retail business.

  • Microsoft supplies the Azure infrastructure hosting Elastic Cloud while also selling customers competing search and security services. Azure AI Search and Azure Sentinel are the products to watch for competition with Elastic’s Search & AI and Security offerings.

  • Alphabet’s Google Cloud hosts Elastic Cloud while competing for enterprise customers buying AI search and security-operations services. Watch Google Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform and Google SecOps for that rivalry, rather than Alphabet’s advertising revenue.

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  • Snowflake and Elastic N.V. both earn more cloud revenue as enterprise customers use more resources: Snowflake stores and processes data, while Elastic supports search, monitoring and security. Snowflake’s existing-customer usage is a useful signal of appetite for paid cloud-data workloads, not a direct measure of Elastic demand.

  • PagerDuty, Inc. serves the same application-reliability spending as Elastic N.V. from a different angle: Elastic Observability analyzes monitoring data to identify incidents, while PagerDuty coordinates the response. Enterprises pay PagerDuty mainly through software subscriptions, so expansion in incident-management users and usage offers a read on spending to keep applications running.

Agenda

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon's report offers a read on AWS cloud demand and, if it discusses its separately built managed search services based on Elastic's platform, on a direct competitor to Elastic.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Datadog, Inc. earningsDDOG

    Datadog's report will show how enterprise spending on log monitoring, application monitoring and cloud security is changing in areas where it competes with Elastic.

in 29 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. earningsPANW

    Palo Alto Networks' report will show whether companies are consolidating threat detection and security analysis on platforms that compete for Elastic Security's budget.

in 30 daysThu, Nov 19

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Elastic N.V. earningsThis company

    Elastic earns most of its revenue from subscriptions, and this report will show whether cloud usage and existing customers' spending are still supporting growth.

in 48 daysMon, Dec 7

  1. Time to be announced

    MongoDB, Inc. earningsMDB

    MongoDB's report will show how Atlas cloud database revenue is changing, offering a demand signal for search and AI-related data workloads that Elastic also serves.