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What happened with MDB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MDB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
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Company

Company overview

MongoDB helps organizations store and manage the data their applications use. Its database organizes data as documents and supports functions such as search and analytics. Organizations can have MongoDB run the database for them or operate it themselves.

Most revenue comes from Atlas, which provides the database, cloud infrastructure and management as a service. Customers primarily pay according to usage, through monthly bills or prepaid arrangements. A smaller revenue stream comes from MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a paid subscription for organizations that manage their own deployments in the cloud, in their data centers or across both. Free Community Server and Atlas tiers introduce developers to the software, with the aim of turning some users into paying customers.

The business depends on customers adopting Atlas, continuing to use it and adding workloads, as well as renewing paid subscriptions. MongoDB relies on AWS, Google Cloud Platform and Microsoft Azure for substantially all Atlas infrastructure, so their availability affects its service. Privacy laws restrict some cross-border transfers of personal data and require safeguards; export controls and sanctions also limit where and to whom MongoDB can sell its software.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MDB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MDB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Elastic N.V. competes with MongoDB Atlas for customers paying to add application search and searches for similar data, or vector search. Watch adoption of Elasticsearch’s search features against MongoDB’s pitch that customers can keep search inside their application database rather than use a separate search engine.

  • Oracle competes with MongoDB for enterprise spending on databases used to build and modernize applications. Oracle’s database pricing and bundled offers matter to MongoDB’s ability to win and retain those customers.

  • Snowflake and MongoDB Atlas both earn revenue as customers use more cloud data services, though Snowflake emphasizes analysis and MongoDB emphasizes running applications. Growth in existing customers’ Snowflake usage offers a read on enterprise cloud data spending, rather than a direct measure of Atlas demand.

  • Amazon’s AWS both sells managed databases that compete for MongoDB’s customers and supplies cloud infrastructure that MongoDB pays for to run Atlas. Watch AWS database offers and infrastructure pricing: they touch both Atlas customer wins and the cost of serving its growing usage.

  • Microsoft competes with MongoDB for enterprise and cloud database customers, while MongoDB pays for Azure infrastructure to run Atlas. Microsoft’s ability to bundle database products matters for customer retention; Azure infrastructure pricing matters for Atlas’s service costs.

  • Alphabet’s Google Cloud competes for MongoDB’s cloud database customers while also hosting Atlas on infrastructure MongoDB pays to use. Its database pricing and bundled offers can affect MongoDB’s customer wins, while its hosting charges feed into Atlas’s infrastructure costs.

  • IBM competes with MongoDB for enterprise database deployments when customers modernize applications, offering software, consulting and infrastructure to those businesses. Watch IBM’s application-modernization offerings and bundled database deals for pressure on MongoDB’s ability to win those deployments.

  • More applications running in production support demand for both Datadog’s paid cloud monitoring software and MongoDB’s application databases. Watch customer use of Datadog’s infrastructure and application-performance monitoring for a read on the workload growth that also supports Atlas consumption.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT

    Microsoft's report will show Azure cloud demand and signs of database bundling; MongoDB competes with Microsoft for customers and pays to use Azure to run Atlas.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Datadog, Inc. earningsDDOG

    Datadog's paid monitoring demand offers a read on the scale of applications running in production, which can also support use of MongoDB's application databases.

in 30 daysThu, Nov 19

  1. Time to be announced

    Elastic N.V. earningsESTC

    Elastic N.V.'s report offers clues to paid demand for its search products, which compete for the same customer need as search built into MongoDB Atlas.

in 48 daysMon, Dec 7

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    MongoDB, Inc. earningsThis company

    Atlas is MongoDB's largest source of revenue, and serving it requires cloud infrastructure; this report shows whether Atlas growth is holding up subscription gross margin, the share left after direct service costs.

in 55 daysMon, Dec 14

  1. Time to be announced

    Oracle Corp earningsORCL

    Oracle's report offers clues to enterprise database demand and bundling; Oracle and MongoDB compete for database budgets used to build and modernize business applications.