ICFI in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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ICF International combines consulting with hands-on implementation: it advises clients on policies and programs, analyzes data, and builds or operates the technology and services needed to carry them out. Energy, environment, infrastructure and disaster recovery work supplies most of its revenue; health and social programs are its next-largest market.
Government clients provide most of the revenue, while commercial businesses supply a substantial part. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is its largest client and accounts for a substantial share of its business. ICF usually contracts directly with the end customer. It earns mainly negotiated fixed prices for agreed work or hourly fees for employees’ time, rather than income from selling or licensing technology.
The business depends on government funding and winning or renewing contracts. Clients can stop or reduce some work on short notice, and fixed-price work requires ICF to control delivery costs. Its government advisory roles can also restrict which other clients it may serve: work on regulations or enforcement can create conflicts of interest that prevent it from accepting otherwise suitable assignments.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
ICF International, Inc.’s results depend on government program funding, especially from HHS, and demand for energy and environmental services, while privately held Abt Global and CLEAResult also shape competition beyond this list.
Tetra Tech competes with ICF for government and commercial spending on environmental, energy and infrastructure consulting and program implementation. Watch its government and commercial environmental work for a read on demand in ICF’s largest client market.
DLH Holdings Corp. and ICF compete for federal health and technology-services contracts, making HHS funding important to both. HHS supplied 49.8% of DLH’s revenue in the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, versus 22% of ICF’s fiscal 2025 revenue, so watch DLH’s revenue from that agency.
MAXIMUS, Inc. and ICF both earn fees helping governments run health and human-services programs and reach the people they serve, tying both to program funding. Watch Maximus’s federal program operations, including Medicare contact-center support, for a view of spending on this work.
Booz Allen Hamilton competes with ICF for federal agencies’ consulting, analytics and digital-services spending. Its work modernizing agencies’ technology is the overlap to watch, rather than its broader defense and commercial offerings.
Leidos competes with ICF for federal professional and technology-services contracts, particularly in health and civilian programs. Its Health & Civil business is the closer comparison for ICF than its defense businesses.
AECOM competes with ICF for public and private clients’ infrastructure advisory, planning and program-management fees. Watch whether its initial planning assignments expand into larger programs: that is the infrastructure spending both companies pursue.
Jacobs Solutions overlaps with ICF in infrastructure and environmental advisory and program management for clients, and also holds a majority stake in ICF rival PA Consulting. Its Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities work in environmental resilience and energy security is the demand to watch alongside ICF.
Stantec and ICF both sell environmental consulting and project and program services to government and commercial clients, exposing them to overlapping spending. Stantec’s Environmental Services business is the clearest place to watch that shared demand.
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) competes with ICF for government contracts to modernize IT and support civilian programs. Watch its Civilian segment, which serves federal, state and local agencies in areas including health, travel and trade.
Accenture competes with ICF for clients’ consulting and digital-implementation budgets, including federal agency work through Accenture Federal Services. That federal business is the relevant comparison for ICF, rather than Accenture’s worldwide consulting and outsourced operations as a whole.
CACI competes with ICF to supply government agencies with analytics, technology and staff who support programs. Watch its government software, data-platform and analytics work for competition in the services ICF also sells.
CGI Inc. competes with ICF to advise public-sector clients and implement their technology systems, including for U.S. federal agencies. Its Momentum platform’s use across all three branches of the U.S. federal government makes federal modernization work the overlap to watch.
Onterris, Inc. competes with ICF for public and private clients’ environmental advisory and assessment work. Watch its Assessment, Permitting and Response revenue for demand from clients assessing projects and securing permits; Onterris says regulation and public-health concerns typically make its services’ funding non-discretionary.
CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA earningsCACI
CACI’s report will show whether agencies are still spending on software, data platforms and analytics—the government work where it competes with ICF.
Look at how CACI describes its government software, data-platform and analytics work, then compare that direction with ICF’s federal-client revenue. Growth would point to continuing demand for these services, but also to an active competitor; weakness could reflect softer demand or CACI-specific execution, not proof that ICF won or lost work.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s interest-rate decision sets the benchmark for borrowing costs, which can affect what ICF pays on its $401.4 million of debt and leave more or less cash for its operations.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, interest costs on debt that reprices or new borrowing may increase, leaving ICF less cash for operations.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates rise less than expected or fall, interest costs on debt that reprices or new borrowing may be lower, leaving ICF more cash for operations.
Leidos Holdings, Inc. earningsLDOS
Leidos’s report will show how its Health & Civil business is faring in federal work that overlaps with ICF’s health and civilian programs.
Compare revenue trends in Leidos’s Health & Civil business with ICF’s health and social programs work. Growth at Leidos would show agencies still paying for overlapping health and civilian services; a decline could point to softer demand, though contract wins and losses at Leidos may also explain it. The report informs the market around ICF, not ICF’s own results.
ICF International, Inc. earningsThis company
ICF’s report will show whether commercial work can offset weaker federal-client revenue while ICF holds its operating margin.
Read federal-client revenue, commercial-client revenue and operating margin together. Federal revenue stabilizing, or commercial revenue growing while the margin holds, would show ICF filling the gap left by reduced government work. Further federal declines alongside a falling margin would show that replacing revenue and delivering projects remain difficult for the business.
Tetra Tech Inc earningsTTEK
Tetra Tech’s report will show how government and commercial clients are spending on environmental, energy and infrastructure work, ICF’s largest client market.
Compare Tetra Tech’s government and commercial environmental work with the direction of ICF’s energy, environment, infrastructure and disaster recovery revenue. Strength would show clients still funding these services; weakness would raise a demand concern. Their projects and contract timing differ, so Tetra Tech’s report is a read on the shared market, not a substitute for ICF’s own figures.
DLH Holdings Corp. earningsDLHC
DLH Holdings’ report will show how its revenue from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is changing, a funding source important to ICF and a point of competition.
Read DLH’s revenue from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services alongside ICF’s exposure to that agency. Growth would show that HHS is still buying services the two companies compete to provide; a decline could signal weaker agency demand, but could also reflect DLH-specific contract changes. The takeaway is the direction of the HHS market, not how much work ICF won.