HD in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with HD today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Home Depot supplies materials and equipment for home repairs, renovations and construction. Homeowners buy products to do projects themselves or hire professionals; contractors and property-maintenance teams buy supplies for their customers’ properties. It sells through stores and online in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with the United States providing most revenue. Product sales account for the bulk of revenue; installation services and tool and equipment rentals add a smaller stream.
The business also extends beyond retail stores into distribution for professional customers. SRS supplies specialty contractors with roofing, landscaping and pool products, while its subsidiary GMS supplies drywall, ceilings and steel framing. HD Supply sells maintenance and repair supplies to facilities such as apartment buildings, hotels and healthcare properties. SRS branches can deliver directly to job sites.
Demand depends heavily on housing activity, home-improvement spending and customers’ ability to finance projects. Fulfilling purchases depends on coordinating stores, distribution facilities and online systems so products are available for pickup or delivery. For installation services, Home Depot acts as the general contractor and uses licensed, insured third-party installers; it must meet contractor licensing, permit and oversight requirements.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Lowe’s competes directly with Home Depot for DIY homeowners’ and professional contractors’ spending on home improvement products, both in stores and online. Watch its push to serve larger residential and commercial professionals, beyond its mainly small- and medium-sized professional customers.
Builders FirstSource competes with Home Depot to supply building materials to professional builders and remodelers, an overlap Home Depot is expanding through SRS and GMS. Its sales to new-home builders and remodeling professionals offer a view of the customers Home Depot is pursuing.
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. competes with Home Depot for homeowners’ and professional installers’ purchases of flooring, installation materials and tools. Its hard-surface flooring sales give a focused view of this part of Home Depot’s home improvement business.
Home Depot relies on Masco for BEHR paint, whose North American retail sales are exclusive to Home Depot; in turn, Home Depot accounted for approximately 38% of Masco’s 2025 net sales. Watch Masco’s sales to Home Depot for a view of this supplier relationship, rather than treating all of Masco’s sales as a paint signal.
Sherwin-Williams competes with Home Depot for professional painters’ and homeowners’ spending on architectural paint and related products. Its paint business is the relevant comparison, rather than its broader industrial coatings sales.
Stanley Black & Decker supplies tools and outdoor products that Home Depot resells, and Home Depot accounted for approximately 15% of its consolidated net sales in 2025. Its sales to Home Depot are the clearest measure of this relationship; its total revenue also includes engineered fastening products.
Scotts Miracle-Gro depends on Home Depot, one of its two largest customers, to sell its branded lawn and garden products to consumers. Watch retailer orders and shelf inventory: Scotts has no long-term sales commitments from major retail customers.
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. supplies faucets, doors and security products that Home Depot sells to its customers; Home Depot accounted for 11% of its 2025 net sales. Sales to Home Depot show this relationship more directly than company-wide sales across its many other channels.
Home Depot relies exclusively on Griffon’s Clopay for residential and commercial garage doors at its North American locations. Griffon also sells tools, fans and home storage products through Home Depot via its CPP business, so the relationship extends beyond garage doors.
MasterBrand, Inc. supplies residential cabinets to Home Depot, which accounted for approximately 13% of its fiscal 2025 net sales. Watch Home Depot’s cabinet orders: customers have no minimum purchase obligation, and Home Depot’s share fell from approximately 16% in fiscal 2023.
Boise Cascade Company supplies Home Depot with building materials it distributes and wood products it manufactures, making Home Depot one of its largest customers. Orders from Home Depot reach both its distribution and wood-products businesses, not just one line of revenue.
Armstrong World Industries supplies ceilings and architectural products to Home Depot and its GMS subsidiary, which together accounted for more than 10% of Armstrong’s consolidated gross sales in 2025. Its ceiling sales to this customer group offer a view of Home Depot’s building-materials business beyond its stores.
Trex Company, Inc. supplies composite decking and railing for Home Depot to sell to contractors and DIY customers. Home Depot buys shelf inventory directly from Trex but obtains consumer special orders through wholesale distributors, so the two routes serve different purchases.
Central Garden & Pet Company supplies garden products and plants to Home Depot, its second-largest customer at approximately 16% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Its Bell Nursery business is the primary plant supplier to Home Depot stores in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, making that regional plant business especially relevant.
RPM International, Inc. supplies consumer repair and maintenance products for Home Depot to sell, including Rust-Oleum coatings and DAP sealants.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Home Depot sells building materials and related products to professional builders and consumers, so the number of new homes being built and sold can shape demand for those goods.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More starts, permits or home sales than expected point to stronger building activity, which may lift demand from builders and consumers for Home Depot’s building materials and related products.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer starts, permits or home sales than expected point to weaker building activity, which may reduce builders’ and consumers’ demand for Home Depot’s building materials and related products.
Masco Corporation earningsMAS
Masco’s sales to Home Depot show how its important BEHR paint supply relationship is moving, but not how much shoppers bought.
Focus on Masco’s sales to Home Depot, not Masco’s company-wide results as a paint signal. Stronger sales mean more business through this supply relationship, but do not prove shoppers bought more; weaker sales could reflect lower Home Depot orders or the timing of purchases and inventory. The takeaway is how the supplier relationship is changing, not a direct measure of paint sell-through.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Home Depot’s sales of project materials and services depend partly on whether high borrowing costs keep people from moving and starting home-related projects.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If a higher-than-expected rate keeps borrowing expensive, fewer home moves and related projects may mean less demand for Home Depot’s project products and installation services.
If it comes in below expectations
If a lower-than-expected rate makes borrowing cheaper, more home moves and related projects may support demand for Home Depot’s project products and installation services.
Builders FirstSource, Inc. earningsBLDR
Builders FirstSource’s sales show what new-home builders and remodeling professionals are buying, customers Home Depot is also pursuing.
Watch Builders FirstSource’s sales to new-home builders and remodeling professionals. Stronger sales would point to firmer building-material demand in a professional channel Home Depot is expanding through SRS and GMS; weaker sales would suggest that channel remains soft, but would not establish that Home Depot’s own sales moved the same way.
Home Depot, Inc. earningsThis company
Home Depot’s comparable sales show whether more customers are buying or whether a higher average ticket is doing most of the work.
Read comparable customer transactions alongside the comparable average ticket. Comparable sales measure sales changes at stores that can be compared over the same period. If both transactions and the average ticket rise, more customers are buying and each purchase is larger, pointing to broader demand for Home Depot. If the ticket rises while transactions still fall, higher spending per purchase is carrying sales while fewer customer visits remain a drag.
Lowe's Companies Inc. earningsLOW
Lowe’s report shows whether it is making headway with larger residential and commercial professionals that Home Depot is also trying to win.
Read Lowe’s progress with larger residential and commercial professionals alongside its overall sales. If that customer business strengthens, Home Depot faces a more forceful rival for professional spending; if it falters, there is less evidence of competitive pressure, though demand from those customers may also be weak. The distinction is whether Lowe’s is winning customers or the market itself is soft.