Stock daily read

What happened with NBTB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NBTB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

NBT Bancorp Inc operates primarily through NBT Bank, which serves individuals, businesses and municipalities in New York, Pennsylvania and New England. The bank uses customer deposits as its main funding source to make loans and hold securities. Borrowers pay interest, and the difference between income from loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings supplies most of the group’s revenue. It also charges fees for banking and wealth-management services and for administering retirement plans.

Commercial real estate is its largest loan category. Earnings depend on borrowers’ ability to repay, economic conditions in its local markets and the gap between lending yields and funding costs.

The parent company receives its income mainly through subsidiary dividends, along with management fees. Banking laws restrict how much NBT Bank can distribute to the parent, including limits tied to the bank’s earnings and capital.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NBTB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NBTB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Community Financial System challenges NBT for household and business banking customers across overlapping northeastern markets, and both also administer retirement plans and health savings accounts. Watch its BPAS administration business alongside banking: it overlaps with NBT's separate retirement-plan revenue stream.

  • Northwest Bancshares competes with NBT for personal and business deposits, mortgages and business loans in Pennsylvania and western New York. Its deposit interest costs are worth watching as NBT expands its western New York presence following the Evans acquisition.

  • S&T Bancorp and NBT share exposure to Pennsylvania households and smaller businesses: both use customer deposits to fund loans and provide wealth management. Watch S&T's small-business lending and deposit costs for a comparison with the demand and funding pressures facing NBT.

  • Fulton Financial competes with NBT in Pennsylvania for household deposits, smaller-business loans, agricultural banking and wealth-management clients. Its lending to small and medium-sized businesses is a useful comparison for NBT's loans that fund business operations and commercial or agricultural properties.

  • F.N.B. Corp competes with NBT for Pennsylvania households and businesses using banking services; both also offer wealth management and insurance, so their overlap extends beyond banking.

  • First Commonwealth Financial Corporation offers a comparison for NBT: both run similarly sized banks that use customer deposits to fund lending, have Pennsylvania exposure and also provide wealth management and insurance to customers.

  • First Bancorp, Inc. (ME) competes with NBT for Maine households, small businesses and government banking customers through deposits, payments and loans. Its lending is concentrated in Maine, making its consumer, business and mortgage loans a local comparison for NBT's southern Maine business.

  • Community Bancorp.'s Vermont bank competes with NBT for local borrowers and depositors, including municipal customers, making town and city banking relationships part of their rivalry.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    NBT Bancorp Inc earningsThis company

    NBT Bancorp uses deposits to fund loans and securities, and this report shows whether the interest left after funding costs can cover credit losses and operating expenses.

  2. Time to be announced

    Community Financial System, Inc. earningsCBU

    Community Financial System's report will show how its BPAS retirement-plan administration business is doing, a read-through to NBT Bancorp's separate retirement-plan revenue stream.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For NBT, Fed rate decisions matter because they influence what the bank earns on loans and securities versus what it pays on deposits and borrowings, and can also change mortgage applications and customers’ deposit choices.