GBCI in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with GBCI today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Glacier Bancorp serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, community organizations and public entities through its wholly owned Glacier Bank. Its branches span the western United States and Texas. The bank gathers deposits from local individuals and businesses and uses them as its main source of funding for loans and other banking activities.
Borrowers pay interest on their loans, and the bank also earns interest on securities it holds. After interest paid on deposits and borrowings, this net interest income supplies most of the company’s revenue. Banking fees and sales of residential mortgages provide additional income.
Commercial real estate accounts for most of the loan portfolio, so borrowers’ ability to repay and property values in its local markets matter especially. Earnings also depend on how loan and investment returns move relative to funding costs as interest rates change. Federal and state banking supervision and capital requirements constrain how the business operates and expands.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Columbia Banking Systems Inc competes with Glacier for business and household borrowers and depositors across Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington. Watch Columbia’s retail and business deposits: its branches bring in the money that funds its lending.
Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc, through Opportunity Bank, competes with Glacier for Montana households’ and small businesses’ deposits and real estate loans. Its news on retail deposit competition is worth watching because deposits are its main source of money for lending.
Ameris Bancorp offers a cross-check on Glacier’s lending margins and property credit conditions: both earn interest from similarly sized loan businesses with substantial commercial real estate exposure. Watch Ameris’s loan yields, deposit costs and commercial property loan quality rather than assuming their results will move identically.
Home BancShares, Inc. is a useful comparison for Glacier: both grew community banks through acquisitions, lend to businesses and real estate borrowers, and generate similar annual banking revenue. Watch the interest income left after funding costs, alongside other banking income, rather than comparing loan interest alone.
Simmons First National Corp provides a comparison for Glacier’s deposit-funded lending: both have comparable loan and deposit balances, lend to commercial real estate, agricultural and business borrowers, and operate in Texas. Watch Simmons’s deposit pricing alongside these loans to assess the cost of funding a similar lending business.
Independent Bank Corp/MA, through Rockland Trust, offers a scale comparison for Glacier’s banking business: both use deposits to fund loans to businesses and consumers, with broadly comparable loan and deposit balances. Rockland Trust’s lending to small-to-upper-middle-market businesses and consumers is the business to follow.
United Community Banks, Inc. offers a comparison for Glacier’s locally focused banking model: both serve small and mid-sized businesses at a similar scale, though in different regions. Watch United Community’s business lending rates and deposit costs, since the cost of deposits helps determine what it charges borrowers.
United Community Banks, Inc. earningsUCB
United Community Banks, Inc.’s report will show whether a community bank like Glacier can raise business lending rates without deposit costs wiping out the gain.
Read United Community’s business lending rates alongside its deposit costs. Rising loan yields without a comparable jump in funding costs would suggest room for local banks’ margins; if deposit costs catch up, Glacier’s loan-pricing and funding-cost balance deserves closer attention. The banks operate in different regions, so one report is not a result for the other.
Glacier Bancorp Inc earningsThis company
Glacier Bancorp earns from loan interest left after funding costs, and this report will show whether that margin can absorb higher credit provisions and operating costs.
Read net interest margin alongside credit provisions and non-interest expense. Net interest margin is the share of earning assets left after interest expense; if it widens without provisions and expenses consuming the gain, Glacier’s loan yields and funding mix are still improving. If the margin narrows, or provisions and expenses rise faster, the better interest income is not translating into stronger operating earnings.
Ameris Bancorp earningsABCB
Ameris Bancorp’s report offers another read on commercial-property loan quality, helping show whether the pressures facing Glacier’s large commercial real estate portfolio are also building elsewhere.
Read Ameris’s commercial-property loan quality and credit provisions alongside loan yields and deposit costs. Steady yields with no marked deterioration in problem loans or provisions would suggest no broad credit strain at this lender with substantial commercial real estate exposure. If loan quality worsens and provisions rise, interest income holding up would not remove the warning for Glacier’s similar property lending.
Columbia Banking Systems Inc earningsCOLB
Columbia Banking Systems Inc. competes for business and household deposits in several states where Glacier operates, and its report will show whether banks are facing more pressure to attract funding.
Watch Columbia’s business and retail deposit balances alongside what it pays for those funds. Growing deposits without a marked rise in costs would suggest it may be attracting money without bidding sharply; falling balances or higher costs would point to fiercer deposit competition in overlapping markets, a pressure Glacier also faces.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Glacier Bank, the Fed’s policy rate sets the backdrop for rates on loans and deposits, changing interest income and funding costs and potentially widening or narrowing the spread between them.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
A higher-than-expected rate can raise yields on loans that reprice and on new lending, but can also increase what Glacier Bank pays on interest-bearing deposits and borrowings; the net effect depends on which costs and income adjust faster.
If it comes in below expectations
A lower-than-expected rate can reduce yields on loans that reprice and new lending, while also easing the cost of interest-bearing deposits and borrowings; which changes faster determines the effect on Glacier Bank’s interest income and funding costs.