Stock daily read

What happened with TTD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TTD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

The Trade Desk helps advertising agencies and advertisers buy digital ad space, manage campaigns and assess results through a self-service platform. It uses audience and device data to help buyers decide which ads to bid for and how much to pay. Unlike media owners, it works on the buying side rather than selling its own ad space. Most revenue comes from clients using the platform to buy ads automatically, a process called programmatic buying. Clients pay a platform fee generally linked to their total spending, plus charges for campaign data and additional services.

Most platform spending flows through advertising agencies. Two agency holding-company groups account for substantial shares of billings, although The Trade Desk generally contracts with individual agencies. These relationships do not guarantee spending: clients choose their budgets and can move business elsewhere. Connected television, meaning television delivered over the internet, is an important source of demand.

The platform also needs access to ad space and data supplied by other companies. Google is both a major supplier of ad space and a competitor. Privacy rules require consent for certain tracking and respect for advertising opt-outs, restricting the data available to target ads, control how often people see them and measure campaign results.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TTD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TTD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Google both competes with The Trade Desk to help advertisers buy ads and supplies it with one of its largest sources of ad space. Changes to Google's access terms matter directly to the campaigns agencies and advertisers can run through The Trade Desk.

  • Amazon competes with The Trade Desk for agencies' and advertisers' spending on automated ad buying, with both offering platforms to run campaigns. Watch Amazon DSP's campaign performance and targeting capabilities as competing reasons for those customers to choose where to spend.

  • Viant Technology Inc. competes with The Trade Desk for agencies and marketers paying independent platforms to buy and measure ads across channels. Viant's customers need not commit spending, so changes in their use of its connected-TV, streaming-audio and other ad-buying tools are worth watching.

  • Nexxen International Ltd. competes with The Trade Desk for brands and agencies paying to plan and buy digital campaigns. Its ad-buying platform is the relevant comparison, rather than its whole business, which also charges publishers to sell ad space and supplies data tools.

  • Magnite, Inc. shares The Trade Desk's exposure to programmatic ad spending: Magnite helps sellers sell ad space, while The Trade Desk charges agencies and advertisers to buy it. Magnite's connected-TV advertising business is a concrete place to watch spending in that shared market.

  • PubMatic, Inc. supplies publisher ad space bought through The Trade Desk; PubMatic generally takes a fee from publishers, while The Trade Desk charges the buyers. Both benefit from more programmatic spending, but PubMatic depends heavily on large buying platforms such as The Trade Desk, with no minimum-spend commitments.

  • AppLovin competes with The Trade Desk for advertisers' budgets by using AI to buy and optimize campaigns. Axon Ads Manager generates substantially all of AppLovin's revenue, making its ability to meet advertisers' return-on-ad-spend goals the product to watch.

  • Criteo S.A. competes with The Trade Desk to help brands and agencies run and optimize digital advertising. Its Performance Media business serves advertisers across channels, while Retail Media helps brands advertise on and off retailers' sites—two concrete areas to watch for competing campaign spending.

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  • Meta Platforms competes with The Trade Desk for marketers' brand-awareness and performance budgets, selling ad placements while The Trade Desk charges clients to buy and manage campaigns. Meta's Family of Apps advertising revenue is the relevant line to watch, rather than its hardware, software and content sales in Reality Labs.

  • DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. measures ads bought through platforms such as The Trade Desk, but also competes with The Trade Desk's own measurement tools. It charges advertising customers by the volume of transactions measured, so that volume shows demand for paid campaign measurement alongside ad buying.

  • Teads Holding Co. competes with The Trade Desk for agencies' and advertisers' spending on campaigns using premium publishers' ad space. Teads earns revenue when advertisers buy through its platform, making its direct access to premium, often exclusive inventory a concrete competitive feature to watch.

  • Taboola.com Ltd. competes with The Trade Desk to direct advertisers' campaign budgets to third-party digital properties. Advertisers pay Taboola for clicks, purchases or impressions, and it shares that revenue with the properties; its ad performance outside search and social is the concrete comparison to watch.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Alphabet Inc. earningsGOOG

    Google’s report will show how its ad business is faring and whether it discusses changes that could affect the inventory The Trade Desk can buy from it.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    The Trade Desk, Inc. earningsThis company

    The Trade Desk’s report will show whether clients’ ad spending on its platform is turning into more revenue, or whether growth still depends on attracting more budget.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced

    DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. earningsDV

    DoubleVerify’s report will show whether advertisers are paying for more ad measurement, a service area The Trade Desk also seeks to serve.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Viant Technology Inc. earningsDSP

    Viant Technology’s report will show whether advertisers and agencies are using independent ad-buying platforms more, and whether connected TV and other channels are driving that demand.

  2. Time to be announced

    PubMatic, Inc. earningsPUBM

    PubMatic’s report will show how publisher ad inventory is selling through programmatic buying, where The Trade Desk is one of the buying platforms.