TTD in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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The Trade Desk helps advertising agencies and advertisers buy digital ad space, manage campaigns and assess results through a self-service platform. It uses audience and device data to help buyers decide which ads to bid for and how much to pay. Unlike media owners, it works on the buying side rather than selling its own ad space. Most revenue comes from clients using the platform to buy ads automatically, a process called programmatic buying. Clients pay a platform fee generally linked to their total spending, plus charges for campaign data and additional services.
Most platform spending flows through advertising agencies. Two agency holding-company groups account for substantial shares of billings, although The Trade Desk generally contracts with individual agencies. These relationships do not guarantee spending: clients choose their budgets and can move business elsewhere. Connected television, meaning television delivered over the internet, is an important source of demand.
The platform also needs access to ad space and data supplied by other companies. Google is both a major supplier of ad space and a competitor. Privacy rules require consent for certain tracking and respect for advertising opt-outs, restricting the data available to target ads, control how often people see them and measure campaign results.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Google both competes with The Trade Desk to help advertisers buy ads and supplies it with one of its largest sources of ad space. Changes to Google's access terms matter directly to the campaigns agencies and advertisers can run through The Trade Desk.
Amazon competes with The Trade Desk for agencies' and advertisers' spending on automated ad buying, with both offering platforms to run campaigns. Watch Amazon DSP's campaign performance and targeting capabilities as competing reasons for those customers to choose where to spend.
Viant Technology Inc. competes with The Trade Desk for agencies and marketers paying independent platforms to buy and measure ads across channels. Viant's customers need not commit spending, so changes in their use of its connected-TV, streaming-audio and other ad-buying tools are worth watching.
Nexxen International Ltd. competes with The Trade Desk for brands and agencies paying to plan and buy digital campaigns. Its ad-buying platform is the relevant comparison, rather than its whole business, which also charges publishers to sell ad space and supplies data tools.
Magnite, Inc. shares The Trade Desk's exposure to programmatic ad spending: Magnite helps sellers sell ad space, while The Trade Desk charges agencies and advertisers to buy it. Magnite's connected-TV advertising business is a concrete place to watch spending in that shared market.
PubMatic, Inc. supplies publisher ad space bought through The Trade Desk; PubMatic generally takes a fee from publishers, while The Trade Desk charges the buyers. Both benefit from more programmatic spending, but PubMatic depends heavily on large buying platforms such as The Trade Desk, with no minimum-spend commitments.
AppLovin competes with The Trade Desk for advertisers' budgets by using AI to buy and optimize campaigns. Axon Ads Manager generates substantially all of AppLovin's revenue, making its ability to meet advertisers' return-on-ad-spend goals the product to watch.
Criteo S.A. competes with The Trade Desk to help brands and agencies run and optimize digital advertising. Its Performance Media business serves advertisers across channels, while Retail Media helps brands advertise on and off retailers' sites—two concrete areas to watch for competing campaign spending.
Meta Platforms competes with The Trade Desk for marketers' brand-awareness and performance budgets, selling ad placements while The Trade Desk charges clients to buy and manage campaigns. Meta's Family of Apps advertising revenue is the relevant line to watch, rather than its hardware, software and content sales in Reality Labs.
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. measures ads bought through platforms such as The Trade Desk, but also competes with The Trade Desk's own measurement tools. It charges advertising customers by the volume of transactions measured, so that volume shows demand for paid campaign measurement alongside ad buying.
Teads Holding Co. competes with The Trade Desk for agencies' and advertisers' spending on campaigns using premium publishers' ad space. Teads earns revenue when advertisers buy through its platform, making its direct access to premium, often exclusive inventory a concrete competitive feature to watch.
Taboola.com Ltd. competes with The Trade Desk to direct advertisers' campaign budgets to third-party digital properties. Advertisers pay Taboola for clicks, purchases or impressions, and it shares that revenue with the properties; its ad performance outside search and social is the concrete comparison to watch.
Alphabet Inc. earningsGOOG
Google’s report will show how its ad business is faring and whether it discusses changes that could affect the inventory The Trade Desk can buy from it.
Look at Google’s advertising business and any stated changes to inventory access or buying terms. A strong ad business with no sign of tighter access would mean Google remains a formidable competitor while still supplying inventory The Trade Desk’s clients can buy. If Google’s ads strengthen while access tightens, it could both compete more forcefully for budgets and leave The Trade Desk’s clients with fewer campaigns they can run.
The Trade Desk, Inc. earningsThis company
The Trade Desk’s report will show whether clients’ ad spending on its platform is turning into more revenue, or whether growth still depends on attracting more budget.
Read platform gross spend alongside revenue growth. Gross spend includes clients’ spending on ad inventory, value-added services and data, plus the platform fee; revenue excludes amounts paid to suppliers. If revenue grows faster than gross spend, more of each dollar of client spend is turning into revenue, through greater use of value-added services and data or higher platform fees. If revenue lags gross spend, each dollar is yielding less revenue, so growth depends more on clients adding budget.
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. earningsDV
DoubleVerify’s report will show whether advertisers are paying for more ad measurement, a service area The Trade Desk also seeks to serve.
Look at the volume of transactions DoubleVerify measures for a fee. Higher volume would show that advertisers are more willing to pay to measure campaigns, creating more room for The Trade Desk’s measurement and value-added services but also more competition from tools like DoubleVerify’s. Lower volume would point to weaker paid demand for this layer of service.
Viant Technology Inc. earningsDSP
Viant Technology’s report will show whether advertisers and agencies are using independent ad-buying platforms more, and whether connected TV and other channels are driving that demand.
Look at client use of Viant’s ad-buying tools and its connected-TV and streaming-audio business. Greater use would show advertisers and agencies are putting more campaigns through independent platforms, sharpening competition for The Trade Desk. Less use would point to less pressure from this type of rival, but would not prove that The Trade Desk won those budgets.
PubMatic, Inc. earningsPUBM
PubMatic’s report will show how publisher ad inventory is selling through programmatic buying, where The Trade Desk is one of the buying platforms.
Look at PubMatic’s revenue and what it says about demand from large buying platforms. Rising revenue and stronger buyer demand would suggest publishers are selling more inventory, supporting the programmatic supply available to The Trade Desk’s clients. Weaker revenue or softer demand from major buyers would point to strain in that supply-and-buying chain, which could also make inventory harder to source for those campaigns.