Stock daily read

What happened with PUBM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PUBM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

PubMatic helps website owners, app developers and other publishers sell advertising space to advertisers and their buying platforms. Its technology runs real-time auctions across display, mobile, video and connected-TV advertising. PubMatic bills advertising-buying platforms for purchased ad impressions, keeps its fee and pays the balance to publishers. These publisher revenue-sharing arrangements provide most of its revenue. It also sells additional tools, including Connect for buyer data and insights and Activate for direct deals with publishers.

The business depends on publishers supplying valuable advertising space and buyers directing spending through PubMatic. A small group of large buying platforms, particularly The Trade Desk and Google DV360, accounts for a substantial share of purchases. Buyers have no minimum-spending commitments, and publishers generally make no minimum commitments to supply inventory, so either side can reduce platform use.

Ad targeting, measurement and pricing also depend on lawful access to audience and auction data. Privacy rules restrict how PubMatic may collect, use and share personal data. Because it generally has no direct consumer relationships, it relies on publishers, buyers and data providers to obtain required consent and provide privacy notices and choices.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PUBM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PUBM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Magnite competes with PubMatic to help publishers sell digital ad space across channels; both generally take a share of the advertising spending handled by their independent platforms. Watch Magnite’s relationships with large connected-TV publishers, where a small number of sellers supply much of its available audience.

  • The Trade Desk is one of PubMatic’s largest buyers of publisher ad space: it charges agencies and advertisers a share of their platform spending, while PubMatic charges publishers a share of the ads they sell. Watch changes to The Trade Desk’s bidding or platform use, since reduced buying through PubMatic can immediately cut PubMatic’s revenue.

  • Nexxen competes directly with PubMatic to sell publishers’ ad space to advertisers, charging customers percentage-based or fixed fees for its advertising tools. Its publisher business is the closest comparison, rather than its separate tools for helping advertisers buy ads.

  • Alphabet’s Google both competes with PubMatic to help publishers sell ads and buys a significant share of PubMatic’s impressions on behalf of advertisers, whose spending drives Google’s advertising revenue. Watch changes to Google’s bidding and buying through PubMatic, which can affect the fees PubMatic earns from publishers.

  • AppLovin competes with PubMatic for mobile-app publishers’ ad space and advertiser spending, helping apps sell ads while charging advertisers according to campaign goals. Watch Axon Ads Manager, which generates substantially all of AppLovin’s revenue and matches advertiser demand with publishers’ available ad space.

  • Criteo competes with PubMatic for retailers’ commerce-media business, offering tools that help retailers earn advertising revenue and brands reach shoppers. Watch Criteo’s Retail Media segment as the comparison for PubMatic’s developing Convert product, while noting that Criteo supports both on-site and off-site retailer advertising.

  • Teads competes with PubMatic to turn publisher and connected-TV ad space into revenue; advertisers pay Teads for clicks or impressions, while PubMatic generally collects a percentage from publishers’ ad sales. Watch Teads’ media-owner relationships, which extend beyond publishers to connected-TV and smartphone manufacturers.

  • Taboola competes with PubMatic for publishers’ monetization business and advertiser budgets, but emphasizes ads that drive clicks or purchases rather than PubMatic’s mainly brand-oriented buying. Advertisers pay Taboola for those actions or impressions, and it shares revenue with partner sites; watch the revenue it generates for those partners.

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  • Viant and PubMatic face the same advertising budgets from opposite sides: marketers and agencies use Viant to buy ads, while publishers pay PubMatic to help sell ad space. Watch Viant’s buying activity across connected TV, mobile and desktop as a signal of demand in channels PubMatic also serves, not as evidence of purchases through PubMatic.

  • DoubleVerify and PubMatic both benefit from digital advertising activity, but advertisers pay DoubleVerify to measure transactions while publishers pay PubMatic to monetize impressions. Watch DoubleVerify’s measured transaction volume for a read on ad activity, keeping in mind that expansion into additional channels and platforms can also lift its revenue.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Alphabet Inc. earningsGOOG

    Alphabet’s report can show whether Google’s ad business is buying more or fewer impressions through PubMatic, which affects the fees PubMatic collects from publishers.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Magnite, Inc. earningsMGNI

    Magnite’s report can show whether large connected-TV publishers are supplying ad inventory, a read on the CTV supply available to PubMatic as well.

  2. Time to be announced

    Criteo S.A. earningsCRTO

    Criteo’s Retail Media results can show whether retailers and brands are spending on commerce media, the market PubMatic is entering with Convert.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    The Trade Desk, Inc. earningsTTD

    The Trade Desk’s report can show whether its platform is buying more or fewer ads through PubMatic, changing the fees PubMatic collects from publishers’ sales.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    PubMatic, Inc. earningsThis company

    PubMatic charges publishers to monetize ad impressions, and its report will show whether platform activity and fees are holding up.