TMP in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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What happened with TMP today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Tompkins Financial Corporation serves businesses and individuals through Tompkins Community Bank in New York and Pennsylvania. The bank gathers local deposits and uses that funding primarily to make loans. Borrowers pay interest, and the bank also earns interest on securities it owns. After interest paid to depositors and other lenders, net interest income provides most of the company’s revenue.
Tompkins Financial Advisors, a division of the bank, helps customers manage investments and trusts and plan their finances and estates. Customers pay fees, with trust and asset-management fees generally based on the assets managed. The company formerly owned Tompkins Insurance Agencies, which it sold to Gallagher; that insurance agency is no longer part of the business.
Commercial real estate and business loans make up most of the loan portfolio, so repayment depends heavily on borrowers’ cash flows and economic conditions in its local markets. Earnings also depend on the gap between the interest rates the bank earns and pays. Banking rules constrain lending, investments and capital, and limit the dividends the bank can send to the parent company, which relies primarily on subsidiary dividends to meet its obligations.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Chemung Financial Corp competes with Tompkins for deposits, business borrowers and fee-paying wealth clients in New York and Pennsylvania. Its share of local deposits is worth watching for pressure on Tompkins’ funding base.
NBT Bancorp Inc competes with Tompkins for depositors, borrowers and other financial-service customers in upstate New York and Pennsylvania. Watch NBT’s lending and deposit business in those markets rather than treating its wider regional results as a direct read on Tompkins.
M&T Bank Corp. competes with Tompkins in New York and Pennsylvania for household deposits, small-business borrowers, commercial property loans and fee-paying wealth clients.
Citizens Financial Services, Inc., through First Citizens Community Bank, competes with Tompkins for business, agricultural and household deposits and loans across southern New York and Pennsylvania. Its commercial and agricultural lending in those markets is the business to watch for competition facing Tompkins.
Northwest Bancshares, Inc competes with Tompkins for personal and business deposits, property borrowers and wealth clients in western New York and Pennsylvania. Watch the interest it pays depositors: both banks use those deposits to fund loans to households and businesses.
S&T Bancorp Inc and Tompkins run similarly sized banks that use deposits to lend to individuals and smaller businesses, with meaningful exposure to Pennsylvania. S&T’s business-loan demand, deposit costs and borrowers’ repayment performance offer a comparison for the same pressures on Tompkins.
CNB Financial Corp/PA and Tompkins share exposure to Pennsylvania loan demand and deposit competition: both take deposits, lend to businesses and households, and provide wealth services. CNB’s property borrowers’ repayment performance is worth comparing with Tompkins’ real-estate lending.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. competes with Tompkins for retail deposits and business borrowers in New York and Pennsylvania, but its much broader market makes its overall results a less direct comparison.
CUSTOMERS BANCORP INC, through Customers Bank, competes with Tompkins for business loans and deposits in southeastern Pennsylvania, though its substantial national specialty businesses make it more than a local banking comparison.
Washington Trust Bancorp Inc and Tompkins face similar earnings pressures because both use regional deposits to fund business and home loans and charge clients for wealth management. Watch Washington Trust’s real-estate loan performance, deposit costs and wealth assets as comparisons for Tompkins, not as evidence of competition in the same local markets.
Chemung Financial Corp earningsCHMG
Chemung Financial competes with Tompkins Financial for deposits and business borrowers in New York and Pennsylvania, so its results show the local funding and lending conditions they share.
Look at Chemung’s deposit trends alongside business-loan growth. Stable deposits and firm business borrowing would point to supportive local funding and demand, easing pressure on Tompkins; deposit outflows or slower business lending would mean Tompkins has a harder time attracting funds and growing its loan book.
Tompkins Financial Corporation earningsThis company
Tompkins Financial earns most of its recurring revenue from interest on loans and securities, and its report will show how loan returns, deposit costs and borrower repayments shape the bank’s profit.
Read net interest income alongside loan growth, loan yields and deposit costs, then check past-due loans and the provision for credit losses. Loan income outpacing deposit costs with steady repayment quality would show stronger interest earnings without loosening credit; deposit costs catching up with loan yields, or rising delinquencies and provisions, would show rate pressure or stress among New York and Pennsylvania borrowers eroding profit.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fed rate decisions shape borrowing costs and the return Tompkins Financial earns on its loans and securities, while also affecting what it pays depositors and borrowers’ ability to repay.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can lift returns as Tompkins Financial’s loans and securities reprice, but also raise deposit and borrowing costs; if borrowers face heavier payments, repayment and loan quality may weaken.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can ease costs for borrowers and support repayment, but may reduce returns on Tompkins Financial’s repricing loans and securities; deposit costs may also fall, affecting the net effect on interest income.