Stock daily read

What happened with RKT today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

RKT in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Rocket Companies helps people finance home purchases and refinance existing mortgages through Rocket Mortgage, directly or through mortgage brokers and other partners. It earns fees from arranging loans and gains from selling nearly all the mortgages it originates to investors. Short-term borrowing funds loans until they are sold; the sale proceeds repay that borrowing and fund new loans. Mortgage lending and servicing are its core revenue businesses.

Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper also collect borrowers’ payments and administer mortgages for loan owners, earning recurring servicing fees. Those fees depend on loans remaining in the portfolio and borrowers keeping up with payments; payoffs and refinancing remove loans. Beyond mortgages, Redfin provides home search and real estate brokerage, while Rocket Close earns from title and closing services and Rocket Money from paying subscribers.

The lending business depends on home purchases, refinancing demand, access to funding and investors willing to buy its loans. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are central to its loan-sale and servicing operations. Rocket must follow their loan and servicing rules and maintain required capital, liquidity and approvals to continue handling covered loans.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RKT’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

RKT says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. faces the same mortgage-volume, loan-sale margin and servicing cash-flow pressures as Rocket Companies: both make or acquire home loans through consumer, broker and correspondent channels, sell them to investors and collect payments for fees. PennyMac’s loan-production and servicing results offer separate checks on Rocket’s two main revenue streams.

  • UWM Holdings Corporation competes directly with Rocket Pro to fund home loans brought by independent mortgage brokers, then sells those loans into the secondary market. UWM’s broker-channel loan volume is a concrete gauge of the business Rocket Pro is competing for, especially purchase mortgages.

  • Rithm Capital Corp. has two ties to Rocket Companies: its Newrez business competes to originate and service mortgages, while Rithm also owns rights bought from Rocket to servicing fees above the base fee on loans Rocket continues to service. Those excess servicing rights give Rithm’s results a direct connection to cash flows from Rocket-serviced mortgages.

  • loanDepot, Inc. competes with Rocket Companies for mortgage borrowers using its brand, digital tools and loan officers to make loans and manage repayments. Its ability to bring servicing customers back for purchase or refinance loans is worth watching alongside Rocket’s efforts to win repeat business from its own borrowers.

  • Onity Group Inc. and Rocket Companies both earn fees for collecting mortgage payments, including on loans they manage for others, and use new lending to replenish their servicing portfolios. Onity’s servicing portfolio balance shows the balance between loans added and loans paid off—the same tension behind Rocket’s recurring servicing cash flows.

  • D.R. Horton Inc.’s home sales and Rocket Companies’ purchase mortgages both depend on U.S. buyers being able to afford financing: Horton sells completed homes, while Rocket lends to buyers and earns fees and loan-sale revenue. Horton’s completed home sales provide a housing-demand check for Rocket’s purchase-loan business, not its refinancing business.

  • Lennar Corporation’s nationwide home sales and Rocket Companies’ purchase lending share a dependence on buyers’ ability and willingness to finance homes. Lennar earns most of its revenue from building and selling homes, so that revenue is a useful read on purchase demand rather than Rocket’s servicing income.

  • PulteGroup, Inc. and Rocket Companies both feel changes in U.S. housing affordability: PulteGroup develops land and sells homes to buyers, while Rocket finances home purchases. PulteGroup’s homebuilding revenue offers a broad view of the buyer demand that also supports Rocket’s purchase mortgages.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Pultegroup, Inc. earningsPHM

    PulteGroup’s home sales show how strong homebuyer demand is, which affects how many purchase mortgages Rocket Companies can make.

in 3 daysFri, Oct 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Rithm Capital Corp. earningsRITM

    Rithm Capital Corp. owns rights to servicing fees above the base fee on some loans Rocket Companies still services, so its report offers a read on cash flows tied to those mortgages.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Rocket earns from originating and selling mortgages and servicing them, so Fed rate decisions matter because they influence mortgage rates, refinance activity and the cost of variable-rate borrowing.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Rocket Companies, Inc. earningsThis company

    Rocket Companies’ report will show whether new mortgages bring sound gains when sold and sustain the loans that generate servicing fees.

  2. Time to be announced

    PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. earningsPFSI

    PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. also originates and sells mortgages and earns servicing fees, so its report provides a peer check on Rocket Companies’ two main revenue streams.