DHI in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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D.R. Horton receives most of its revenue from buyers purchasing completed homes, mainly single-family detached houses. It serves buyers ranging from first-time homeowners to people seeking larger or luxury homes. Its majority-owned company Forestar develops residential lots and sells most of them to D.R. Horton, supplying land ready for home construction. A smaller business builds and leases rental homes and apartment communities, then sells the properties, including bulk sales of rental homes.
Its mortgage subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, finances most of D.R. Horton’s homebuyers and earns primarily by selling the loans and related servicing rights rather than keeping them. Most loan sales go to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into Ginnie Mae-backed securities; one other major financial buyer takes much of the remainder. This business therefore relies closely on the company’s home sales and on those outlets for its mortgages.
Home sales depend in part on buyers’ access to affordable mortgages, including government-backed financing. Higher mortgage rates have led D.R. Horton to adjust prices and offer incentives. Land development and construction also require government approvals and must comply with zoning, building and environmental rules that can restrict where and how it builds.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Lennar is D.R. Horton's similarly sized rival for new-home buyers across much of the U.S.; both earn most of their revenue building and selling homes. Lennar's homebuilding revenue is the closest scale comparison for Horton's core business.
PulteGroup competes with D.R. Horton to sell new homes across geographically diversified U.S. markets. Its homebuilding revenue offers a broad comparison for Horton's home-sales business, rather than a read on one local market.
Meritage Homes Corporation competes directly with D.R. Horton for entry-level and move-up buyers, selling similarly priced new homes in overlapping markets. Its average selling prices for completed sales and new orders are useful comparisons for Horton's pricing.
KB Home competes with D.R. Horton for first-time and move-up buyers of new detached and attached homes in overlapping U.S. markets. Its push to expand within existing markets puts its local home deliveries in focus for Horton investors.
D.R. Horton buys ready-to-build residential lots from Forestar, which develops land for homebuilders and was approximately 62%-owned by Horton at September 30, 2025. Horton bought 83% of Forestar's lots sold in fiscal 2025, making those sales a concrete view of this part of Horton's land supply.
NVR competes with D.R. Horton for first-time and move-up buyers of detached homes and townhomes, especially in the Eastern U.S. Sales under its Ryan Homes brand are particularly relevant to Horton's entry-level and first move-up offerings.
Century Communities, Inc. and its Century Complete brand compete with D.R. Horton for entry-level and move-up buyers in overlapping regions, building and selling attached and detached homes. Century Complete's sales give a more focused comparison for Horton's entry-level business because that brand targets entry-level buyers, generally without options or upgrades.
LGI Homes, Inc. competes with D.R. Horton for entry-level buyers of new attached and detached homes across U.S. markets. Watch its planned increase in selling communities for where this entry-level rival is expanding.
Builders FirstSource supplies building materials and services to D.R. Horton, while its sales to residential builders also track U.S. new-home construction volumes. Its sales of framing products, windows and doors to builders offer another view of demand behind Horton's homebuilding business.
Toll Brothers competes with D.R. Horton's luxury and move-up homes, but its luxury focus makes it a less direct comparison for Horton's wider buyer mix. Its luxury-home sales speak more to that part of Horton's business than to entry-level demand.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. competes with D.R. Horton to sell single-family homes to entry-level and move-up buyers in overlapping Southern and Western markets. Its home sales net of contract cancellations are worth watching alongside Horton's sales in those markets.
M/I Homes, Inc. competes with D.R. Horton to sell single-family homes and townhomes to first-time, move-up and empty-nester buyers. Its homebuilding revenue is the relevant comparison, rather than its smaller mortgage and closing-services business.
Green Brick Partners, Inc's builder brands compete with D.R. Horton for new-home buyers in Texas, Georgia and Florida. Its home-sales income in those states provides a geographically focused comparison for Horton's business there.
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. competes with D.R. Horton for first-time, move-up and active-adult homebuyers across multiple U.S. regions. Its sales of detached homes, townhomes and active-lifestyle homes are the relevant overlap to watch.
Beazer Homes competes with D.R. Horton for entry-level, move-up and active-adult buyers in overlapping U.S. markets. Its Gatherings brand, which sells lower-maintenance homes to active adults, is a focused comparison for Horton's active-adult offerings.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. competes with D.R. Horton for affordable new-home buyers in the Southern and Southeastern U.S. Its sales of single-family homes to entry-level buyers offer a focused comparison for Horton's lower-priced offerings in those regions.
Housing Starts (Sep)
New-home construction and sales track building activity and buyer demand; for D.R. Horton, stronger activity can bring more home closings and demand for Forestar lots, while weaker activity can leave land and home inventory costs harder to recover.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More starts or permits indicate more building, which can support D.R. Horton’s home closings and demand for lots from majority-owned Forestar, helping the businesses sell homes and lots and recover their inventory costs.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer starts or permits indicate less building, which can weaken D.R. Horton’s home closings and demand for Forestar lots, making it harder for the businesses to sell inventory and recover land and home costs.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For D.R. Horton, the Fed’s policy-rate decision matters because higher rates can make mortgages less affordable for its homebuyers and raise costs on floating-rate debt, while lower rates can ease those pressures.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed sets rates higher than expected, D.R. Horton’s buyers may face costlier mortgages, weakening home demand and putting pressure on sales, prices or incentives; interest expense may also rise on its floating-rate debt.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed sets rates lower than expected, mortgage costs may ease for D.R. Horton’s buyers, supporting demand and reducing pressure on sales incentives; borrowing costs may also fall on its floating-rate debt.
D.R. Horton Inc. earningsThis company
D.R. Horton earns most of its revenue by selling new homes, and this report will show whether buyer demand and selling prices can support closings and homebuilding margins.
Read net sales orders and cancellations alongside homes closed and the average closing price, then check the home sales gross margin. Steady orders and closings with a firm margin would show buyers can still accept D.R. Horton’s prices and incentives; weaker orders or a falling margin would show that discounts or lower prices are squeezing profit and demand is not supporting sales on those terms.
Forestar Group Inc. earningsFOR
D.R. Horton buys many ready-to-build lots from its majority-owned Forestar, and Forestar’s report will show how many lots moved through this important supply channel to Horton.
Look at Forestar’s total lots sold and how many went to D.R. Horton. More lots sold to Horton would show this affiliated channel continuing to supply its homebuilding operation; fewer would mean that channel is slowing, leaving Horton to rely more on other sources for land.
Lennar Corporation earningsLEN
Lennar and D.R. Horton both earn most of their revenue building and selling homes, so Lennar’s homebuilding revenue will show whether broad U.S. demand shared by the two is holding up.
Read Lennar’s homebuilding revenue alongside its deliveries. If both hold up, broad new-home demand is still converting into sales, a supportive signal for D.R. Horton’s core business; if both weaken, demand is pressuring large builders’ sales, though that does not establish Horton’s own result.