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Forestar Group supplies U.S. homebuilders with lots prepared for single-family homes. It acquires land, installs infrastructure and sells the finished lots, with development projects providing most of its revenue. It generally seeks development approvals before buying land and develops projects in phases to match demand. Purchase contracts let it secure the right to buy land later without committing the full purchase price upfront.
D.R. Horton supplies most of Forestar’s residential lot sales revenue and is also its controlling shareholder. Their supply agreement gives D.R. Horton the first opportunity to buy some or all lots from certain projects at market prices and terms, but does not guarantee purchases. D.R. Horton also has approval rights over specified major financing, acquisition and management decisions.
Sales depend on homebuilders wanting and being able to purchase lots. Development also depends on government approvals: zoning, infrastructure requirements and environmental rules can delay projects or restrict where and how Forestar develops land.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Forestar depends heavily on D.R. Horton, which owned about 62% of it at September 30, 2025 and bought 83% of its residential lots in fiscal 2025 to build homes for sale. Watch Horton's finished-lot purchases: they directly feed Forestar's lot sales.
Millrose Properties, Inc. gives homebuilders an alternative to Forestar's finished lots and short-term land holdings by funding homesite acquisition and development. Builders and land developers pay monthly fees for the right to buy those sites later; that option-fee income is the revenue line to watch for this competing model.
Five Point Holdings, LLC sells developed homesites to homebuilders as Forestar does, but concentrates on large California communities. Its residential land sales offer a narrower California comparison for demand for Forestar's lots.
Lennar's nationwide sales of new homes reflect the housing demand behind builders' purchases of Forestar's finished lots. Watch Lennar's homebuilding revenue rather than its mortgage or rental businesses for that comparison.
PulteGroup buys and develops land to build homes for sale across the United States, exposing it to the same housing demand and land conditions as Forestar's lot business. Its owned lots and rights to buy land later provide a useful comparison for builders' land supply.
Meritage Homes Corporation sells mainly entry-level and first move-up homes, matching the main housing categories served by Forestar's lots. Its orders for those homes are a useful demand comparison, not evidence that it buys from Forestar.
KB Home sells new homes mainly to first-time and first move-up buyers, the same buyer groups supporting Forestar's principal lot markets. Its home sales provide a read on those buyers rather than on direct orders for Forestar's land.
Century Communities, Inc. develops land and sells entry-level and move-up homes, sharing Forestar's exposure to housing demand and development costs. Its Century Complete homes, aimed at entry-level buyers, are the clearest comparison for that part of Forestar's lot demand.
Green Brick Partners, Inc develops lots largely for its own homebuilding brands, whereas Forestar sells developed lots to other builders; both face new-home demand and land-development costs. Green Brick's home sales in Texas, Georgia and Florida show how that internally supplied model is performing.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. sells entry-level, move-up and active-adult homes, plus homes to rental investors, closely matching the communities Forestar supplies with lots. Watch its net home sales after cancellations for demand across those buyer groups.
NVR's Ryan Homes sells mainly to first-time and first move-up buyers whose demand also supports Forestar's lot sales. Ryan Homes is the relevant comparison, rather than NVR's brands aimed at luxury and other move-up buyers.
LGI Homes, Inc. focuses on entry-level homebuyers, whose ability to buy new homes also supports demand for Forestar's entry-level lots. Sales under the LGI Homes brand are a closer comparison than its Terrata Homes luxury business.
M/I Homes, Inc. sells single-family homes and townhomes to first-time and move-up buyers, sharing the end demand behind Forestar's lot sales. Its homebuilding revenue is the relevant line to compare, rather than mortgage and closing fees.
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. sells homes to first-time, move-up and active-lifestyle buyers, overlapping the groups behind much of Forestar's lot demand. Sales to those buyers are more relevant to Forestar than Hovnanian's luxury-home sales.
Toll Brothers sells homes across the United States and shares Forestar's housing-cycle exposure, but focuses more on luxury buyers. Its luxury-home sales offer a contrast to the entry-level and first move-up demand behind Forestar's main lot markets.
Builders FirstSource sells building materials and installation services to homebuilders whose construction activity also creates demand for Forestar's lots. Watch materials sold for new residential construction, rather than repair and remodeling, for the closer comparison.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Forestar earns most of its revenue by selling finished residential lots to homebuilders, so measures of new-home building and sales indicate whether builders may buy more lots, delay purchases or press for lower prices.
Expected1.3MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.3M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More homes started or permitted, or stronger new-home sales, may support builders serving Forestar’s entry-level, move-up and active-adult communities, encouraging lot purchases and helping Forestar’s sales volume and pricing; weaker sales could still temper that effect.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer homes started or permitted, or weaker new-home sales, may lead builders serving Forestar’s communities to delay or reduce lot purchases, weighing on Forestar’s sales volume and potentially pressuring the prices it can charge.
M/I Homes, Inc. earningsMHO
M/I Homes’ homebuilding revenue offers a read on buyer demand for new homes, a market signal for demand for Forestar’s lots.
Read homebuilding revenue alongside homes sold, leaving out mortgage and closing-service revenue. If both hold up or rise, buyers are still taking new homes, supporting the builder market Forestar serves. If both weaken, cooler buyer demand could make builders more cautious about buying lots. M/I Homes is a market signal; its results do not show that it buys lots from Forestar.
Millrose Properties, Inc. earningsMRP
Millrose lets builders pay monthly fees for the right to buy homesites later, and its report will show whether this alternative to Forestar’s finished lots is gaining use.
Read option-fee income alongside the homesites or transactions covered by these arrangements. If both rise, builders or developers are making greater use of a model that secures the right to buy a site later in return for monthly fees. That gives Forestar’s finished lots an alternative, but does not mean housing demand itself is stronger. If both weaken, the model may simply be used less; that alone does not show builders will switch to Forestar. The takeaway is whether this alternative is gaining use, not whether Forestar’s orders are rising.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Forestar sells finished residential lots to homebuilders, so interest-rate changes that affect buyers’ mortgage affordability can shift lot demand, sales and the prices Forestar can charge.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed sets rates higher than expected, costlier mortgages may weaken buyers’ affordability and builders’ lot demand, making Forestar more likely to adjust prices or offer incentives that reduce margins; higher borrowing costs may also raise its costs on debt that reprices or new borrowing.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed sets rates lower than expected, cheaper mortgages may improve buyers’ affordability and support builders’ lot demand, helping Forestar sustain sales and pricing; lower rates may also reduce costs on debt that reprices or new borrowing.
Forestar Group Inc. earningsThis company
Forestar sells finished residential lots to homebuilders, and its report will show whether lot sales, average prices and development margins are supporting the business together.
Read residential lot sales volume, average selling price and development margin together. More lots sold with margins holding would show that builders are buying more and Forestar is converting sales into sound returns. If average prices rise while volume falls, or development margins weaken, the change in revenue would not by itself show stronger demand; builder purchases, the mix of regions sold or development costs could still be weighing on returns. The conclusion is whether Forestar can earn well from steady lot demand and cost control, rather than relying on a higher average price.
D.R. Horton Inc. earningsDHI
D.R. Horton is one of Forestar’s largest lot customers, and its report will show whether home sales and its homesite position support continued lot purchases.
Read D.R. Horton’s home sales alongside the lots it owns and controls. Steady sales with a relatively limited lot position would suggest it may need to replenish finished lots, supporting demand from Forestar’s direct customer. Weaker sales or ample lot supply could reduce the urgency to buy. Its lot position and sales are clues to purchasing needs, not proof that it bought lots from Forestar; the conclusion is whether this major customer’s business supports continued buying.
