NINE in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Oil and gas producers hire Nine Energy Service to prepare horizontal wells in shale and other tight formations before production can begin. It works mainly in U.S. and Canadian onshore basins. Its crews pump cement around well casing, deploy tools that open and isolate sections for hydraulic fracturing, and clean out the well before production. It also intervenes in existing wells using continuous steel tubing.
Most revenue comes from services, with cementing the largest service line. Producers generally pay for individual jobs awarded through bidding or negotiation, rather than committing to a fixed volume of work. Nine also sells completion tools, including plugs that isolate fracturing stages; international tool sales are an important revenue source.
Demand depends heavily on producers’ development budgets, which reflect current and expected oil and gas prices. Customers can defer completion work when they cut spending. Drilling and fracturing require permits, and local restrictions or bans can limit where customers operate and where Nine can provide services.
Nine has also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to restructure its debt. Its court-confirmed plan calls for existing common shares to be canceled without compensation and for noteholders to receive the reorganized company’s equity. The plan’s effectiveness remained subject to conditions; court approval alone did not establish that the restructuring had been completed.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Nine Energy Service’s results hinge on North American unconventional-well completion spending; NCS Multistage is another named competitor to watch that this list does not include.
KLX Energy Services competes with Nine for oil and gas producers’ completion and well-intervention work on technically demanding onshore wells in the same U.S. basins. Watch its completion and intervention business in shared markets such as the Permian and Marcellus, where both seek customer spending.
ProPetro competes with Nine for Permian Basin producers’ spending on sealing well casing with cement and lowering tools into wells by cable—cementing and wireline services. Its Cementing and Wireline segment results are the parts to watch for competition with Nine, rather than its hydraulic-fracturing business.
Halliburton competes with Nine to sell oil and gas producers cementing, completion products and services that work inside existing wells. Its Completion and Production segment contains these overlapping businesses, making it the relevant part of Halliburton’s results to follow.
Ranger Energy Services competes with Nine for U.S. oil and gas producers’ well-completion support, cable-delivered tool work and services using continuous steel tubing—wireline and coiled tubing. Watch those services rather than Ranger’s gas-processing equipment business when assessing competition with Nine.
Innovex competes with Nine to sell oil and gas operators engineered products placed inside wells to complete them for production. Its direct sales to operators are worth watching alongside Nine’s completion-tool business, which reported market-share losses tied to customer consolidation and changed completion designs.
RPC competes with Nine for oil and gas companies’ well-site service and downhole-tool spending, including tools that separate completion stages. Watch RPC’s UnPlug, which uses perforation pods as an alternative to traditional bridge plugs, alongside Nine’s composite, hybrid and dissolvable frac plugs.
Liberty Energy competes with Nine to provide North American onshore oil and gas operators with cable-delivered downhole work for well completions, known as wireline services. Wireline activity is the relevant overlap; Liberty reports it within a broader completion-services segment that also includes fracturing and other offerings.
Patterson-UTI competes with Nine for oil and gas producers’ spending on services that prepare wells for production. Its Completion Services segment is the relevant comparison with Nine, separate from its drilling services and drilling products.
ProFrac and Nine depend on North American unconventional-well completion spending: producers pay ProFrac to fracture wells and Nine for complementary cementing, stage-isolation tools and wireline work. ProFrac’s Stimulation Services results offer a read on the completion activity that also drives Nine’s revenue and profitability.
SLB competes with Nine to supply oilfield completion tools and services that prepare producers’ wells for production; Nine names it as Schlumberger in its competitor disclosure.
Baker Hughes competes with Nine to supply oilfield customers with completion tools, work inside existing wells and cable-delivered tool services. Its Oilfield Services & Equipment product line covering completions, intervention, pressure pumping and wireline is the relevant business to follow for this overlap.
Oil States and Nine compete to sell oil and gas operators well-site completion services and downhole offerings. Oil States charges daily rates for crews to set up and operate well-site equipment, so its completion-service activity and rates are the concrete areas to follow alongside Nine.
Core Laboratories’ Production Enhancement business competes with Nine to sell oil and gas operators completion and perforation offerings that prepare wells for production. Follow that segment’s completion and perforation business, rather than its separate reservoir rock-and-fluid analysis business.
DMC Global’s DynaEnergetics makes systems that perforate wells in the same plug-and-perf operations where Nine supplies wireline work and plugs to isolate stages. Watch DynaEnergetics’ sales for demand tied to those completion stages, rather than DMC’s consolidated sales, which also include other manufacturing businesses.
Select Water Solutions and Nine share exposure to U.S. shale completion activity: energy customers buy completion water and related field services from Select, while Nine provides cementing, tools and wireline work. Select’s use of recycled water to meet customers’ completion-water needs is a concrete area to follow for this shared activity.
Halliburton Company earningsHAL
Halliburton’s Completion and Production business includes cementing and completion services, so its results show whether producers are still spending in areas where it competes with Nine Energy Service.
Read revenue and operating income for the relevant business together, bearing in mind that it also includes services beyond the overlap with Nine. If both hold up or rise, producers are still paying for related completion work, supporting Nine’s market while leaving it up against a well-resourced rival. If both weaken, activity may be softer or Halliburton may be performing less well; this report alone cannot distinguish the two. The takeaway is whether Nine faces a supported but competitive market or signs of broader weakness.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)
EIA’s weekly crude oil and gasoline stock figures track how much crude and fuel is held in storage, which can sway oil prices and the E&P customers whose spending drives Nine Energy Service’s job-by-job completion work.
A stock build points to looser crude and fuel supply, which may pressure oil prices and customer spending on completion work; a draw points to tighter supply, which may support prices and that spending.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Nine Energy Service’s variable-rate debt means Fed rate decisions can change what it pays to borrow and how much cash remains for operations.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates could raise interest costs on debt that reprices, leaving less cash to fund completion work and other operations.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates could ease interest costs on debt that reprices, leaving more cash available for completion work and other operations.
Innovex International, Inc. earningsINVX
Innovex sells engineered products directly to oil and gas operators, so its sales show demand for completion tools and the competition Nine Energy Service faces for those orders.
Watch whether direct sales of Innovex’s completion products strengthen, and read that alongside the competition for Nine’s completion-tool orders. Stronger sales show operators are still buying these products, but may also mean Innovex is winning more work. Weaker sales could reflect less demand or orders going to other suppliers. The report can point to the direction of product demand and competition, but cannot by itself establish whether Nine is gaining or losing share.
ProFrac Holding Corp. earningsACDC
ProFrac’s Stimulation Services results show what producers are spending on fracturing, work that goes alongside Nine Energy Service’s cementing, stage-isolation tools and wireline services.
Read revenue and operating results for ProFrac’s Stimulation Services business together. If both hold up or strengthen, producers are still spending on fracturing, supporting demand for the adjacent cementing, stage-isolation and wireline work Nine provides. If both weaken, completion activity may be easing, leaving less related work for Nine. The takeaway is whether producers’ completion spending is supporting Nine’s business or losing strength.