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What happened with FLL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FLL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Full House Resorts serves guests at casino properties in Illinois, Mississippi, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. It earns gaming revenue from wagers after paying customer winnings, with slots providing most of its revenue. Guests also spend on rooms, dining and other on-site amenities. American Place in Illinois and Silver Slipper in Mississippi together account for most of the company’s revenue, so business depends heavily on visits and spending at those properties.

A smaller business lets outside sports-betting operators use the company’s permitted online wagering access rights under their own brands. These operators pay a share of contract-defined revenue, subject to annual minimum payments. The active arrangements are in Indiana and Illinois; other permitted rights are unused.

The company must maintain gaming licenses and pay gaming taxes to operate. American Place currently uses a temporary facility whose permitted operating period ends in August 2027. Full House is developing a permanent casino next door, but further construction depends on securing financing. If the permanent facility is not ready and the temporary facility’s permission is not extended, gaming there may have to stop until the replacement opens.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FLL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FLL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Century Casinos competes directly with Full House’s Chamonix and Bronco Billy’s in Cripple Creek for Colorado visitors’ casino spending.

  • Boyd Gaming and Full House compete for local gamblers’ spending at slot-led regional casinos in Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi. Boyd’s casino gaming revenue in those states is the relevant comparison for Full House, rather than its online gaming business.

  • PENN Entertainment’s regional casinos compete with Full House for customers spending on slots and table games in markets including Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi.

  • Monarch Casino & Resort’s Colorado and Reno casino resorts compete with Full House’s Colorado and Lake Tahoe properties for regional gamblers and overnight guests. Watch gaming revenue at Monarch Black Hawk and Atlantis: Monarch uses rooms and dining to attract casino play at both resorts.

  • Caesars Entertainment’s regional casinos compete with Full House’s properties for gamblers’ spending, including in Indiana, Mississippi and the Lake Tahoe area.

  • Bally’s Corporation’s Chicago casino competes with Full House’s American Place for northern Illinois gamblers’ spending; both companies also run regional casinos elsewhere.

  • MGM Resorts International’s Mississippi casinos compete with Full House’s Silver Slipper for Gulf Coast customers’ gambling and resort spending.

  • Red Rock Resorts and Full House both rely heavily on repeat customers spending on slots, rather than international destination tourists. Red Rock’s slot revenue from its Las Vegas locals casinos offers a comparison for the customer spending that supports Full House’s regional casinos.

Agenda

in 3 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Boyd Gaming Corporation earningsBYD

    Boyd Gaming’s casino revenue in Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi will show whether gambling demand is strengthening or weakening in states where Full House Resorts also competes.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Full House Resorts’ Fed rate decision matters because it can shift the cost of interest on its $30 million floating-rate credit-facility borrowing, while its $450 million of senior notes carry fixed rates.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Full House Resorts, Inc. earningsThis company

    Full House Resorts depends heavily on its Midwest & South business, and this report will show whether casino revenue there is translating into stronger segment earnings.