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What happened with DRI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

DRI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse generate most of Darden Restaurants’ sales. The company operates its restaurants mainly in the United States, serving meals and drinks to individual diners rather than relying on a major customer. Its other brands include Yard House, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen and the fine-dining restaurants Ruth’s Chris, The Capital Grille and Eddie V’s. Darden also collects royalties and fees from franchised and contractually managed restaurants, but these contribute little to the overall business.

The business depends on guests choosing its brands, dining out and spending per visit. Food and labor costs also shape what Darden earns: raising menu prices to cover higher costs can discourage visits. Opening and running restaurants requires compliance with local zoning, food-safety, alcohol-service and employment rules.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in DRI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

DRI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Bloomin’ Brands competes for Darden’s diners through Outback against LongHorn, Carrabba’s against Olive Garden, and Fleming’s against its fine-dining steakhouses. Its U.S. restaurant sales offer a comparison across those same steak and Italian dining choices.

  • Texas Roadhouse competes directly with Darden’s LongHorn for diners buying moderately priced steak dinners with table service. Its steakhouse sales are a focused comparison for LongHorn, rather than Darden’s broader restaurant portfolio.

  • Brinker International’s Chili’s and Maggiano’s compete with Darden’s casual and Italian restaurants for sit-down meal spending. Watch Chili’s value-priced 3 for Me meals and Maggiano’s Italian American dining as two distinct fronts of that competition.

  • The Cheesecake Factory and its North Italia restaurants compete with Darden’s full-service brands for casual and upscale sit-down meals. Restaurant sales are the relevant comparison; its bakery sales to retailers and other customers reach a different market.

  • Dine Brands Global’s Applebee’s competes with Darden’s casual-dining restaurants for diners, but Dine Brands mainly collects fees from operators using its brands rather than diners’ restaurant bills. Applebee’s franchise royalties therefore provide a different view of the same dining market than Darden’s company-owned restaurant sales.

  • BJ’s Restaurants competes especially with Darden’s Yard House, selling diners meals, proprietary craft beers and drinks from a full bar. Its food and beverage sales are the useful comparison for this part of Darden, rather than Olive Garden or its fine-dining steakhouses.

  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers’ company-operated restaurants compete with Darden for families buying sit-down meals, with gourmet burgers and a family-friendly atmosphere as its draw. Its company-owned restaurant sales offer a closer comparison with Darden than fees collected from franchise operators.

  • Cracker Barrel’s restaurant business competes with Darden’s casual-dining restaurants for families spending on sit-down meals.

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  • The ONE Group Hospitality’s STK and polished-casual restaurants compete with Darden’s fine-dining steakhouses and upscale brands for diners’ spending. Its owned STK restaurant revenue is a closer comparison with Darden’s restaurant sales than fees paid by venues it manages or licenses.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Cheesecake Factory (The) earningsCAKE

    The Cheesecake Factory’s restaurant sales show how diners are spending on casual and upscale sit-down meals that overlap with some Darden brands; its bakery sales serve a different market.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Brinker International, Inc. earningsEAT

    Brinker International’s Chili’s and Maggiano’s compete with Darden’s casual and Italian restaurants for sit-down diners, so its report offers a read on demand in both categories.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    BJ's Restaurants, Inc. earningsBJRI

    BJ’s Restaurants’ food and beverage sales show whether diners are spending at a full-service restaurant with craft beer and a full bar, much like Darden’s Yard House.

  2. Time to be announced

    Texas Roadhouse, Inc. earningsTXRH

    Texas Roadhouse and Darden’s LongHorn both sell moderately priced steak dinners with table service, so its report tests traffic and spending in that specific steakhouse market.

  3. Time to be announced

    The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. earningsSTKS

    The ONE Group Hospitality’s owned STK restaurants compete with Darden’s upscale brands, and their restaurant sales are a closer comparison than fees from managed or licensed venues.

in 59 daysThu, Dec 17

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Darden Restaurants, Inc. earningsThis company

    Darden’s profit depends on its restaurants turning sales into earnings, and this report tests that across its brands by pairing sales with segment profit margins.