Stock daily read

What happened with BLMN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BLMN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Bloomin' Brands owns Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, spanning casual dining to fine dining. Most revenue comes from diners paying for food and drinks at its company-owned U.S. restaurants, with Outback Steakhouse accounting for the largest share.

It also lets independent operators run restaurants under its brands in the U.S. and overseas. These franchisees pay an initial fee and ongoing monthly royalties tied to their restaurant sales, while following brand and quality standards. This is a much smaller revenue stream, and its income depends on franchisees’ sales and ability to pay.

The business depends on attracting diners and managing food and labor costs. Beef makes up most of its purchased proteins, and it buys most of that beef from four suppliers. Its debt agreements also limit borrowing, dividends, share repurchases and certain investments and asset sales.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BLMN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BLMN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Darden competes for Bloomin’ Brands’ diners through LongHorn against Outback, Olive Garden against Carrabba’s, and its fine-dining steak brands against Fleming’s. Its food-and-drink sales in those businesses are worth watching for competition across Bloomin’ Brands’ main dining categories.

  • Texas Roadhouse competes directly with Bloomin’ Brands’ Outback for diners buying moderately priced, table-service steak dinners, and both face beef-cost pressure. Watch its beef-cost news: beef accounted for most of the proteins Bloomin’ Brands purchased in 2025.

  • Brinker’s Chili’s and Maggiano’s compete with Bloomin’ Brands’ Outback and Carrabba’s for casual and Italian-American meals. Watch Chili’s value-priced offerings such as 3 for Me for the meal deals Bloomin’ Brands must compete against.

  • Dine Brands Global’s Applebee’s competes with Bloomin’ Brands’ Outback for value-conscious casual diners. Unlike Bloomin’ Brands’ largely company-operated restaurant business, Dine Brands earns primarily fees paid by restaurant franchisees, so its franchise revenue is not the same as diners’ restaurant spending.

  • BJ’s Restaurants competes with Bloomin’ Brands’ casual-dining restaurants for customers’ food-and-drink spending in overlapping U.S. markets. Its restaurant sales, including its own craft beers and full bar, offer a view of that competition rather than steak dining alone.

  • The Cheesecake Factory’s upscale-casual restaurants and North Italia compete with Bloomin’ Brands’ Bonefish and Carrabba’s for sit-down meals. Watch its restaurant business for this rivalry, rather than its separate bakery sales to retailers and other customers.

  • Red Robin competes with Bloomin’ Brands’ Outback and other casual-dining brands for sit-down meal spending, using gourmet burgers and a family-friendly setting. Its price-value offers are worth watching as an alternative for families choosing where to eat.

  • The ONE Group Hospitality’s STK and polished-casual restaurants compete with Bloomin’ Brands’ Fleming’s and Bonefish for higher-spending dining occasions. Watch STK’s restaurant business for that rivalry; the group also earns fees for managing food-and-drink operations for hotels, casinos and other clients.

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  • Cracker Barrel’s national sit-down restaurant chain competes with Bloomin’ Brands for families’ meal spending, though its country-style dining and retail business make it a different kind of alternative.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Brinker International, Inc. earningsEAT

    Brinker’s report will show whether Chili’s value offers are drawing diners that Outback and Carrabba’s also compete to serve.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Texas Roadhouse, Inc. earningsTXRH

    Texas Roadhouse’s report will show how beef costs and steak-restaurant sales are moving in the market it shares with Outback.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Bloomin' Brands, Inc. earningsThis company

    Bloomin’ Brands’ report will show whether sales at its established U.S. restaurants are growing fast enough to keep pace with restaurant costs.