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What happened with CBRL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CBRL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Cracker Barrel serves moderately priced, home-style country food, with breakfast, lunch and dinner available daily and breakfast offered throughout the day. Customers mainly eat in its full-service restaurants, though they also buy meals for pickup, delivery and catered gatherings. Meal sales provide most of the revenue; the gift shops add a smaller stream from purchases such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts and packaged foods.

Many stores sit along interstate highways, making highway travel and the ability to attract passing customers important to the business. Some states restrict highway signs, limiting how the company can use billboards to draw customers into its stores.

The stores depend on an outside distributor for most food products and restaurant supplies, while most retail inventory passes through a single warehouse in Lebanon, Tennessee. Restaurant operations and alcohol sales also require licenses that can be suspended, revoked or denied renewal.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CBRL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CBRL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Cracker Barrel’s results hinge on value-oriented family-dining traffic, so also watch Denny’s, Waffle House and Bob Evans Restaurants, important rivals missing from this list.

  • Dine Brands Global, Inc.’s IHOP competes with Cracker Barrel for moderately priced family meals and breakfast visits. Dine Brands collects fees from restaurant operators using its brands; IHOP’s performance is the part to watch for competition with Cracker Barrel’s all-day breakfast.

  • First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. competes with Cracker Barrel for sit-down breakfast, brunch and lunch customers across a broad U.S. restaurant network. Its sales from made-to-order daytime meals give a focused view of competition for those visits, rather than Cracker Barrel’s dinner or gift-shop business.

  • Darden Restaurants’ Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Olive Garden and LongHorn compete with Cracker Barrel for families’ full-service lunch and dinner spending. Darden earns mainly from diners buying food and drinks, making those brands’ restaurant sales more relevant to Cracker Barrel than its fine-dining business.

  • Texas Roadhouse and Cracker Barrel compete for families buying moderately priced American lunches and dinners with table service. Texas Roadhouse sells steaks and other meals with rolls and, for most entrées, two sides included, making its meal offering worth watching against Cracker Barrel’s lunch and dinner specials.

  • Brinker International’s Chili’s competes with Cracker Barrel for value-conscious customers buying American lunches and dinners with table service. Chili’s sells food and drinks, including value meals such as 3 for Me; news about that offer is particularly relevant to Cracker Barrel’s lunch and dinner specials.

  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers competes with Cracker Barrel for families seeking good value in casual dining. It runs burger restaurants and charges operators using its brand fees tied to their sales; its family-friendly atmosphere and price-value offering are the competitive features to watch.

  • Bloomin' Brands, Inc.’s Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s compete with Cracker Barrel for casual lunches and dinners with table service. Bloomin’ earns from its restaurants and fees paid by operators using its brands; watch these two casual-dining brands rather than its fine-dining business for the closer overlap.

  • BJ's Restaurants, Inc. competes with Cracker Barrel for full-service lunch and dinner visits, with both offering broad food menus, though BJ’s puts more emphasis on its bar. BJ’s earns from food and drinks, so separate its meal offering from its craft beers and full bar when judging the overlap with Cracker Barrel.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Brinker International, Inc. earningsEAT

    Brinker International's report, especially Chili's results, will show whether diners are still buying its lunches, dinners and value meals—and how hard Cracker Barrel must compete for those customers.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. earningsFWRG

    First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s report will show whether diners are still visiting for made-to-order breakfast and lunch, the daytime occasions it shares with Cracker Barrel.

in 49 daysTue, Dec 8

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc,. earningsThis company

    Cracker Barrel's report will show whether restaurant traffic is recovering or sales growth still depends mainly on guests spending more per visit.