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What happened with CAKE today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CAKE in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

The Cheesecake Factory runs restaurants in the United States and Canada, with its namesake chain supplying most of the company’s revenue. That chain offers a broad menu of meals alongside its cheesecakes, rather than operating mainly as a dessert shop. Customers pay for dining in, takeout and delivery orders. The company also operates North Italia, Flower Child and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands.

Its restaurants prepare most dishes from scratch each day, while company-owned bakeries make the cheesecakes and other baked desserts. Those bakeries also sell to outside foodservice, retail and distribution customers. Outside its company-operated network, international operators fund and run licensed The Cheesecake Factory restaurants. They pay the company development and design fees, ongoing royalties tied to restaurant sales, and for bakery products they buy.

Restaurant revenue depends on customer traffic and how much each customer spends. Menu pricing must balance food and labor costs against customers’ willingness to pay; the broad, made-from-scratch menu requires more restaurant labor than some competitors’ menus. The company’s own bakeries are the only source of most baked desserts served in its restaurants. Restaurants and bakeries also need operating licenses and permits, and local rules can prohibit alcohol sales for takeout or delivery.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CAKE’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CAKE says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • BJ’s Restaurants competes closely with Cheesecake Factory for diners buying meals and drinks from broad menus in distinctive dining rooms with bars. Watch BJ’s restaurant remodels and expansion: both support its stated push to win more of these customers.

  • Brinker International competes with Cheesecake Factory on two fronts: Chili’s sells American meals and drinks to casual diners, while Maggiano’s competes with North Italia for full-service Italian meals. Chili’s value-priced 3 for Me meals are one concrete offering to watch against Cheesecake Factory’s balance between menu prices and customer traffic.

  • Darden Restaurants’ Yard House, Seasons 52, Olive Garden and other full-service brands compete with Cheesecake Factory and North Italia for casual and upscale diners’ spending on food and drinks. Olive Garden sales and the Other Business segment, which includes Yard House and Seasons 52, are the relevant parts of Darden’s results to watch.

  • Bloomin’ Brands’ Bonefish Grill, Carrabba’s and Outback compete with Cheesecake Factory and North Italia for diners choosing full-service casual or more upscale casual meals. Its U.S. segment contains these competing brands, but also includes Fleming’s fine-dining restaurants, so that revenue is not a pure comparison.

  • Texas Roadhouse competes with Cheesecake Factory for sit-down meal spending, with both preparing much of their food from scratch. Its moderately priced steak meals, mostly including two made-from-scratch sides, offer a concrete comparison as Cheesecake Factory weighs price increases against customer traffic.

  • Dine Brands Global’s Applebee’s competes with Cheesecake Factory for casual sit-down meals, but the two companies collect revenue differently. Cheesecake Factory sells meals and drinks to diners, while Dine Brands mainly collects royalties and advertising fees from restaurant operators using its brands, making Applebee’s franchise business more relevant than Dine Brands’ total revenue.

  • The ONE Group Hospitality competes with Cheesecake Factory for full-service dining occasions through its upscale and polished-casual restaurants, and explicitly names Cheesecake Factory as a rival. Watch its restaurant business rather than treating all revenue alike: it also earns fees for running food-and-drink operations for hotels, casinos and other clients.

  • Cracker Barrel competes with Cheesecake Factory for family sit-down meals, but its country-style dining and attached retail shops make it a less direct comparison.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Cheesecake Factory (The) earningsThis company

    This report will show whether diners keep coming to Cheesecake Factory after menu price increases, and whether its restaurants protect their profitability.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Brinker International, Inc. earningsEAT

    Brinker’s report will show whether Chili’s value meals draw more diners, offering a direct comparison for Cheesecake Factory’s own pricing and traffic.