What happened with APLD today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
AI computing customers need facilities that can power and cool densely packed processors. Applied Digital supplies that infrastructure to CoreWeave and large cloud operators, which pay for tenant fit-out services and lease data-center capacity. Its high-performance computing business now contributes most revenue, with fit-out services contributing more than rent so far. Long-term leases generally require customers to pay for contracted capacity whether or not they use it, but most contracted capacity is still under construction rather than earning revenue.
Revenue depends heavily on a small group of customers. Applied Digital also earns hosting fees from a single crypto miner that installs its equipment in the company’s powered facilities. This smaller, legacy business remains active, although the customer can reduce or discontinue service subject to contractual conditions. The company has shifted its investment and operating focus toward AI data centers.
Turning signed leases into rental income depends on financing and completing campuses and securing utility power and grid connections. Facilities also need zoning, land-use and environmental approvals, including permits for backup generators. Significant construction delays can give tenants termination rights, so contracted revenue is not the same as revenue already being earned.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Applied Digital depends on CoreWeave and its special-purpose entity for rent on 400 MW at Polaris Forge 1, worth approximately $11 billion over the initial 15-year lease terms, excluding renewals. CoreWeave sells AI cloud computing to enterprises, AI labs and technology companies; its expansion and ability to pay rent matter directly to that contracted revenue.
TeraWulf competes with Applied Digital for compute customers that rent large U.S. data-center campuses under long-term contracts. Its lease signings and deliveries at Lake Mariner and Abernathy offer a comparison for Applied Digital’s ability to turn AI capacity into rental income.
Cipher Digital competes with Applied Digital to secure large sites with grid access and build data centers for major cloud-company tenants. Watch progress on its 600 MW of HPC facilities across two sites, rather than its bitcoin-mining revenue, for the clearest comparison with Applied Digital’s campus development.
Core Scientific competes with Applied Digital to house customers’ power-intensive AI and HPC equipment in purpose-built data centers. Its progress repurposing facilities and delivering space, power and cooling for those customers is more relevant to Applied Digital than its own digital-asset mining.
IREN competes with Applied Digital to build power-dense AI data centers, but also sells customers the computing and software rather than just leasing campus capacity. Its rollout of operating AI cloud capacity provides a comparison for how quickly secured grid access becomes usable AI infrastructure.
Hut 8 challenges Applied Digital’s power-first approach: both secure powered sites before developing infrastructure for compute demand. Hut 8 develops and manages land and electrical systems, earning money from managed services and generation; watch how it turns those assets into digital infrastructure.
Digital Realty competes with Applied Digital for customers that pay for data-center space, power and cooling rather than build their own facilities. Its larger enterprise and service-provider leases are the closest comparison with Applied Digital’s leased AI campuses.
Galaxy Digital’s Data Centers business develops HPC infrastructure that competes with Applied Digital’s leased AI campuses, but plans to operate it in the future. Watch that segment’s development progress, not the trading fees and lending income from Galaxy’s separate digital-assets business.
ChronoScale Holdings Corporation’s GPU cloud results still flow into Applied Digital’s accounts: Applied Digital owned approximately 96% as of July 29, 2026 and consolidates the business despite its separate listing. Watch cloud revenue from customers paying for computing equipment access, including Together AI’s monthly GPU-use payments, as well as the timeliness of its audited results.
Ionic Digital offers a comparison for Applied Digital’s long-term AI infrastructure leases by renting its powered Ward County property to Nscale. Its fixed monthly lease payments were scheduled to start in August 2026; securing the additional 89 MW would show whether it can expand that rental business.
WhiteFiber competes with Applied Digital to host customers’ high-density AI equipment, while also selling GPU cloud computing to AI and machine-learning developers. Its hosting and colocation revenue is the closer comparison with Applied Digital’s data-center leasing than its cloud-service revenue.
Equinix competes with Applied Digital for customers paying recurring fees for data-center space and power, but emphasizes connections among customers, suppliers and partners. Its monthly recurring infrastructure revenue offers a read on demand for outsourced facilities, rather than specifically for Applied Digital’s high-density AI campuses.
Keel Infrastructure Corp. is developing power-advantaged sites to seek long-term data-center leases from the cloud companies, AI businesses and enterprises that Applied Digital also serves. Its HPC business had no revenue as of December 31, 2025, so lease signings and progress toward its expected first data-center revenue in 2027 matter more than legacy mining revenue.
Fermi Inc. seeks long-duration tenants for Project Matador’s powered AI campus, competing for the large compute users served by Applied Digital. It had no revenue through December 31, 2025; definitive tenant leases and delivery of powered buildings and on-site power are the milestones to watch before operating revenue can begin.
Babcock & Wilcox affects Applied Digital through its share and warrant holdings and through a contract to design and install four 300-MW gas-fired plants for Applied Digital-backed power producer Base Electron. Watch both plant execution and the investment’s value: warrant fair-value gains added $89.2 million to Applied Digital’s fiscal-year 2026 results.
Nebius Group and Applied Digital both depend on spending to train and run AI models, but Nebius sells GPU computing, storage and software while Applied Digital leases the campuses that house such workloads. Nebius’s GPU cloud capacity expansion offers a view of compute demand, not evidence of a lease relationship with Applied Digital.
Vertiv sells power and cooling equipment to data-center customers in the same AI construction cycle that drives Applied Digital’s campus development. Its liquid-cooling and power-system sales are the relevant comparison for high-density AI buildouts; this tie does not establish Vertiv as an Applied Digital supplier.
Applied Digital relies on Caterpillar for backup-generation equipment, so unfilled orders could delay campus construction and operations. Caterpillar’s ability to deliver that equipment matters more here than its broader construction and mining machinery sales; replacing key suppliers could also raise Applied Digital’s costs.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Applied Digital’s interest-rate-sensitive bridge and revolving borrowings mean Fed rate decisions can change what it pays to finance its data-center construction and operations.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates are higher than expected, interest on borrowing priced against SOFR or a base rate may rise, increasing the cash Applied Digital has to devote to debt service and leaving less for construction and operations.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates are lower than expected, interest on borrowing priced against SOFR or a base rate may fall, easing Applied Digital’s debt-service costs and leaving more cash for construction and operations.
Caterpillar Inc. earningsCAT
Caterpillar's report offers a read on backup-generation equipment supply, which Applied Digital relies on to build and operate its campuses.
Watch Caterpillar's updates on power-generation equipment production and delivery against Applied Digital's need to build and operate campuses on schedule. Smooth supply would make backup power less likely to hold up projects; constrained production or delays could push schedules back or raise costs if Applied Digital has to find alternatives. The takeaway is whether backup-generation equipment could constrain campus development or operations.
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. earningsBW
Babcock & Wilcox's report can show progress on gas-fired plants it is designing and installing for Applied Digital-backed Base Electron, and offer a read on Applied Digital's related investment.
Keep plant execution separate from changes in the value of Applied Digital's related investment. Progress would give Base Electron's plan to supply campus power firmer footing; delays would make that power path less certain. Investment-value changes may also affect Applied Digital's reported results without showing better HPC rents or campus operations. The distinction is between progress on a potential power source and valuation effects in Applied Digital's accounts.
JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
Job openings track how many positions employers are seeking to fill; a tight labor market can make it harder and costlier for Applied Digital to staff its remote North Dakota data centers.
Expected7.0MLast release7.079M
If it comes in above expectations
More openings than expected point to stronger hiring demand and wage pressure; Applied Digital may have to pay more or struggle to recruit and retain staff at its remote North Dakota sites, raising costs or hindering operations.
If it comes in below expectations
If the reading is below the 7.0M estimate, it is below the previous 7.079M. Fewer openings than expected point to weaker hiring demand and less wage pressure; Applied Digital may find it easier or less costly to recruit and retain staff at its remote North Dakota sites.
Core Scientific, Inc. earningsCORZ
Core Scientific's report will show its progress converting facilities for AI and HPC customers, a direct measure of the competition Applied Digital faces for similar tenants.
Look at Core Scientific's progress converting facilities and delivering space, power and cooling, alongside whether its AI and HPC business is expanding. Faster delivery and growth in that business would add usable capacity for the kinds of tenants Applied Digital serves; slow conversion would mean less near-term competing capacity. The key is whether a rival is turning conversion plans into facilities customers can use.
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
The monthly jobs report counts jobs added or lost across the economy; stronger hiring can make it harder and more expensive for Applied Digital to staff its remote North Dakota data centers.
If the report points to stronger hiring, wage and recruiting pressures at Applied Digital’s remote North Dakota sites may rise; weaker hiring may ease those pressures.
CoreWeave, Inc. earningsCRWV
CoreWeave rents 400 MW at Applied Digital's Polaris Forge 1, and its report can show how its AI cloud business and ability to meet that lease obligation are developing.
Read CoreWeave's AI cloud expansion alongside its ability to fund that growth. Growth with the financial capacity to meet its obligations would support the customer base behind Applied Digital's long-term rent; slower growth or financial strain would raise the risk around the tenant. The conclusion is whether CoreWeave's business and finances continue to support this lease relationship.
ChronoScale Holdings Corporation earningsCHRN
Applied Digital still consolidates ChronoScale, and its report can show how cloud-services revenue is changing and whether results arrive in time for Applied Digital's accounts.
Read ChronoScale's revenue from customers paying to access cloud-computing equipment alongside whether results reach Applied Digital on time and reliably. Stable or rising revenue would show the consolidated business still contributing; a decline would weaken that contribution. Late or unreliable reporting could also make it harder for Applied Digital to complete its consolidated accounts on time and accurately. The takeaway is both the cloud business's contribution and its effect on reporting reliability.
Applied Digital Corporation earningsThis company
Applied Digital is shifting its HPC business from customer build-outs to long-term leases, and this report will show whether its new campuses are starting to bring in rent.
Read HPC rental and other revenue alongside services revenue: services include tenant fit-out work, while rental and other revenue includes base rent and tenant recoveries. Rising rent with less reliance on services would show more built capacity earning through leases; weak rent while services remain the larger source would mean growth still depends on customer build-outs. The question is whether Applied Digital is turning contracted capacity into recurring rent.
