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What happened with AI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

C3.ai helps large organizations build and run AI applications using their business data. Its C3 Agentic AI Platform connects data, computing resources and AI services so developers do not have to write all the underlying integration code themselves. Customers can build their own applications or use ready-made C3 AI Applications and C3 Generative AI. Buyers include industrial companies, financial institutions and government agencies, with the U.S. federal government a significant part of the business.

Customer engagements generally start with a paid initial production deployment. Customers that continue then pay a monthly fee plus charges tied to computing usage, or commit to a longer-term contract that may also include usage charges. Software subscriptions provide most of the revenue; implementation, engineering, consulting and training services contribute a smaller share. Revenue therefore depends on customers moving beyond initial deployments, renewing contracts and expanding software use.

Partners are a primary route to winning and expanding customer accounts, including Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud and Baker Hughes. A limited number of customers account for a large part of revenue, so their spending and renewal decisions matter heavily. U.S. export controls and sanctions restrict where and to whom C3.ai can supply certain software and services, and some exports require licenses.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • BigBear.ai Holdings overlaps with C3.ai in selling AI tools that help defense, national-security and commercial customers make decisions and run workflows. Its government adoption of Ask Sage is worth watching alongside C3.ai’s growing U.S. federal business.

  • UiPath competes with C3.ai for enterprise spending on platforms that connect business data and coordinate AI agents to automate complex work under company controls. Watch whether UiPath customers expand automation into more departments and more demanding workflows.

  • Appian Corporation overlaps with C3.ai in selling enterprises and governments platforms that combine controlled access to business data, AI and workflow automation. Its subscription revenue from financial services, government, life sciences and manufacturing offers a view of customer groups C3.ai also serves.

  • Microsoft supports C3.ai deployments with Azure computing infrastructure, but also sells components that enterprises can use to build AI systems instead of buying C3.ai’s platform. Their joint selling and C3 AI Applications in Azure Marketplace show the other side of that relationship: Microsoft also helps C3.ai reach customers.

  • Baker Hughes contributes to C3.ai’s business both by purchasing its software under their strategic commercial arrangement and by jointly marketing industrial AI solutions to energy customers.

  • Booz Allen Hamilton builds AI systems for federal customers that can replace C3.ai’s packaged applications, while also partnering to deliver C3.ai solutions. Its federal AI project work is therefore relevant to C3.ai both as competition and as a route to government customers.

  • Accenture offers enterprises an alternative to buying C3.ai’s packaged platform: paying consultants to build and manage a custom AI system. Its consulting and managed-services work puts the build-versus-buy choice at the center of this competitive tie.

  • Salesforce’s Agentforce and C3.ai’s agentic software compete for business customers’ spending on AI agents, connected business data and automated workflows. Watch adoption of Agentforce 360, which brings people, agents, applications and data together within Salesforce’s customer-management offerings.

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  • IBM overlaps with C3.ai in selling enterprise AI technology to modernize data-driven workflows, using software, consulting and computing infrastructure. But C3.ai says it no longer encounters IBM Watson in competitive situations, so that overlap should not be read as evidence of current head-to-head Watson deals.

  • Cognyte Software Ltd. overlaps with C3.ai in selling government intelligence and security organizations AI software that combines data from multiple sources and analyzes it. Government-agency contracts worldwide generate the substantial majority of Cognyte’s revenue, making that customer group the relevant comparison with C3.ai’s intelligence business.

  • Amazon’s AWS provides computing infrastructure on which customers run C3.ai software, but also supplies AI components for building alternatives to that software. For this tie, watch AWS rather than Amazon’s retail business: it serves both C3.ai deployments and the build-it-yourself option C3.ai identifies as its primary competition.

  • Alphabet’s Google Cloud hosts C3.ai applications, but also supplies components enterprises can assemble into competing in-house AI platforms. C3 AI Applications’ availability in Google Cloud Marketplace and optimization for Google Cloud are concrete signs of the hosting and sales relationship alongside that competitive overlap.

Agenda

in 3 daysFri, Oct 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation earningsBAH

    Booz Allen Hamilton's report will show how federal project demand is changing; it both builds government AI systems that can compete with C3.ai and partners to deliver C3.ai solutions.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Baker Hughes Company earningsBKR

    Baker Hughes buys C3.ai software and jointly markets industrial AI solutions to energy customers, so its report offers a read on project demand in those markets.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT

    Microsoft provides Azure infrastructure for C3.ai deployments and sells tools customers can use to build their own AI systems, so its report speaks to both sides of that relationship.

in 43 daysWed, Dec 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    C3.ai, Inc. earningsThis company

    Subscriptions make up most of C3.ai's revenue, and this report will show whether subscription income is growing while the business earns more on each dollar of it.

  2. Time to be announced

    Salesforce, Inc. earningsCRM

    Salesforce's Agentforce competes with C3.ai for business spending on AI agents and automated workflows, and its report will show whether customers are adopting that kind of software.