WRB in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with WRB today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
W.R. Berkley Corporation’s insurance businesses cover risks faced by companies, primarily in the United States. Customers pay premiums in exchange for coverage, often buying through agents and brokers. Commercial insurance supplies most of its revenue. Individual businesses focus on particular industries, products or local markets, while the group centrally manages capital, investments and reinsurance.
A smaller business takes on risks from insurers and self-insured organizations in return for premiums. This includes covering portions of insurers’ portfolios or individual risks, known as reinsurance. Berkley also earns investment income from a portfolio held mainly in bonds and other fixed-maturity securities.
Underwriting profit comes from premiums exceeding claims and operating costs. Because Berkley sets premiums before the eventual claims costs are known, earnings depend on pricing coverage adequately for the losses it takes on. Investment income also depends on interest rates and borrowers’ credit quality. Insurance regulation governs capital, investments, policy rates and terms. The parent company relies on dividends from its insurance subsidiaries to meet its obligations, and regulators restrict those payments.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
American Financial Group’s Great American businesses compete with Berkley for niche business customers buying specialized commercial insurance; both let individual insurance teams manage those markets. Great American’s pricing and claims costs in these products offer a comparison for Berkley’s specialized insurers.
Markel Group and Berkley compete to insure businesses in defined specialty markets, with individually managed underwriting operations. Watch Markel Insurance’s underwriting profit rather than the whole group’s earnings, which also include non-insurance businesses.
RLI Corp. and Berkley compete across the United States to tailor insurance for distinctive risks, through both state-authorized policies and excess-and-surplus coverage outside the standard market. RLI’s pricing and losses on these specialty policies provide a comparison for Berkley, without material foreign operations complicating RLI’s results.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. directly competes with Berkley to insure hard-to-place commercial property and casualty risks, especially for small and medium-sized accounts. Its Small Business Casualty premiums are a focused measure to watch for competition in that customer group.
Arch Capital and Berkley compete in specialty insurance, through both state-authorized and non-admitted policies, and both take on insurers’ risks through reinsurance internationally. Arch’s specialty insurance and reinsurance results are the relevant comparison, rather than its separate mortgage insurance business.
Axis Capital Holders Limited and Berkley compete to sell specialty commercial liability coverage, and both also take on insurance risks through reinsurance. AXIS’s professional-lines pricing and claims, including errors-and-omissions and medical-malpractice coverage, are a useful comparison for Berkley’s professional liability business.
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. competes with Berkley to sell businesses tailored coverage for specialized risks, using both state-authorized policies and excess-and-surplus insurance. Its pricing and claims in markets where standard coverage is inadequate offer a read on the niches Berkley also serves.
CNA Financial Corporation competes with Berkley to sell commercial property and casualty insurance to businesses through retail and wholesale agents and brokers. CNA’s commercial coverage pricing and liability claims are the relevant comparison for Berkley, rather than its warranty and other service businesses.
Chubb competes with Berkley for businesses buying commercial and specialty insurance, including excess-and-surplus coverage for risks outside the standard market. Chubb’s pricing and risk selection in those lines are more relevant to Berkley than its life insurance earnings.
Travelers competes with Berkley for commercial customers buying business insurance and specialty coverage. Watch pricing and claims in Travelers’ Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance businesses, rather than its personal auto and homeowners policies.
The Hartford’s substantial Business Insurance operation competes for the business customers who underpin Berkley’s predominantly commercial insurance operations. Its Business Insurance premiums and claims are the closer comparison, not its employee benefits or fund businesses.
American International Group’s North American and international commercial insurers compete with Berkley to collect premiums from businesses buying commercial and specialty coverage. Those two commercial segments provide a cleaner comparison for Berkley than AIG’s Global Personal business.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. competes with Berkley in U.S. excess-and-surplus casualty insurance, international specialty insurance and taking on insurers’ property and casualty risks through reinsurance. Hamilton Select’s premiums and claims are the most focused comparison for Berkley’s hard-to-place small and mid-sized business customers.
Cincinnati Financial and Berkley both sell insurance to businesses through independent agencies, cover risks outside the standard market through excess-and-surplus policies, and assume insurers’ risks through reinsurance. Cincinnati’s commercial and excess-and-surplus premiums are the useful comparison, rather than its sizable personal insurance business.
The Hanover Insurance Group and Berkley compete to sell commercial and specialty insurance through independent agents, brokers and specialty distributors. Hanover’s Core Commercial and Specialty results show the relevant business-customer markets, while its Personal Lines results are a different comparison.
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. competes with Berkley to insure businesses’ casualty, professional liability and healthcare liability risks, mainly outside the standard market through excess-and-surplus policies. Its casualty and professional liability premiums and claims offer a focused comparison for Berkley’s liability-heavy insurance mix.
James River Group Holdings, Inc. competes with Berkley for specialty casualty insurance outside the standard market, including small and medium-sized business accounts. Watch whether James River reduces premiums because pricing or policy terms are inadequate; it explicitly puts underwriting profit ahead of growth.
Everest Group and Berkley both sell insurance through brokers and earn premiums from insurers by taking on their risks through reinsurance in U.S. and international markets. Everest’s insurance and reinsurance results provide separate comparisons for Berkley’s two businesses.
Old Republic International Corporation’s specialty commercial insurers compete with Berkley to cover businesses’ commercial auto, workers’ compensation and liability risks. Its title insurance business has different drivers and is not the same comparison for Berkley.
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings directly competes with Berkley to insure U.S. small and medium-sized businesses’ property and casualty risks outside the standard market through excess-and-surplus coverage. Its focus on lower-severity property risks and lower-limit casualty policies makes those policies the relevant comparison, not the whole specialty market.
Global Indemnity Group, LLC’s ongoing excess-and-surplus insurers compete with Berkley to cover small businesses’ and niche commercial customers’ property and liability risks. Watch Belmont Core’s results, which contain ongoing insurance and assumed reinsurance, rather than Belmont Non-Core’s de-emphasized or discontinued lines.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. competes with Berkley to sell specialty casualty and inland marine coverage to customers. Its Casualty and Inland Marine and Other Property results are the closer comparison; earthquake and crop insurance give Palomar a different business mix.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For W. R. Berkley, the Fed’s policy rate influences the return on its investment portfolio: falling rates can reduce future income earned on investments, while rising rates can lower the market value of its fixed-maturity holdings.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the policy rate is above the estimate, higher rates may reduce the market value of Berkley’s existing fixed-maturity investments, even as they may support future investment income as holdings mature or are reinvested.
If it comes in below expectations
If the policy rate is below the estimate, lower rates may support the market value of Berkley’s existing fixed-maturity investments, but can reduce the income it earns as investments mature or are reinvested.