THG in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with THG today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
The Hanover Insurance Group insures homes, vehicles and business risks through Hanover Insurance, Citizens and other subsidiaries. Policyholders pay premiums in exchange for coverage of losses specified in their policies. Personal auto and homeowners insurance is its largest revenue line; together with standard commercial coverage for small and mid-sized businesses, it generates most revenue. A smaller Specialty business covers needs such as professional liability, marine risks and surety obligations. The insurance subsidiaries also earn investment income.
Independent agents and brokers bring in nearly all its business. These agencies generally control the customer relationship and renewal rights, so Hanover depends on them to attract and retain policyholders rather than selling mainly through its own direct channel.
Profitability depends on pricing policies to cover the claims and expenses that follow. Its personal insurance business is heavily concentrated in Michigan and Massachusetts, making conditions in those states especially important. State insurance rules constrain rates, underwriting, required coverage and market exits, limiting how freely Hanover can change prices or reduce exposure.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Cincinnati Financial competes with Hanover for independent agencies’ business, collecting premiums from businesses and households for business, auto, homeowners and specialty coverage. Its commercial and personal insurance premium growth offers a comparison for Hanover’s ability to win business through agents.
Travelers competes with Hanover across insurance bought by businesses and individuals, including specialty coverage, bonds, auto and homeowners policies. Watch its ability to raise auto and homeowners rates: regulatory approvals and competition constrain when it can charge enough to cover claims and earn a profit.
Selective Insurance Group competes with Hanover for businesses buying property and liability coverage through independent agents, including standard policies and excess and surplus coverage. Its Standard Commercial Lines net premiums written are the closest comparison for Hanover’s small-business commercial offering.
Hartford competes with Hanover for U.S. businesses and individuals paying for property and casualty insurance, with the strongest overlap in commercial coverage. Its Business Insurance earned premiums provide a more relevant comparison for Hanover than Hartford’s group benefits or fund businesses.
CNA Financial Corporation competes with Hanover for businesses buying commercial property, liability and surety coverage through independent agents and brokers. Its small- and medium-sized business customers are the closest match to Hanover’s Core Commercial and Specialty customer base.
Chubb both competes with Hanover for personal, commercial and specialty insurance premiums and takes on part of Hanover’s insured risk through reinsurance. At December 31, 2025, Hanover reported $62.8 million of reinsurance recoverables from Chubb, making it a counterparty to watch as well as a rival.
W.R. Berkley competes with Hanover’s Core Commercial and Specialty businesses for U.S. companies paying for commercial and specialized insurance. Its locally run businesses’ pricing and coverage choices offer a comparison for the competition Hanover faces in specialized business markets.
Progressive competes with Hanover for U.S. households buying personal auto and residential property insurance. Its personal auto pricing and claims experience are especially relevant: auto accounted for 57.2% of Hanover’s Personal Lines net premiums written in 2025.
Allstate competes with Hanover for households’ auto and homeowners premiums, leaving both exposed to rising repair costs and weather losses. Watch auto pricing relative to claims costs and homeowners catastrophe losses—the same pressures matter to Hanover’s Personal Lines earnings.
Safety Insurance Group competes with Hanover for Massachusetts households’ insurance business placed through independent agents. Watch its Massachusetts auto and homeowners business: the state generated approximately 13% of Hanover’s personal auto and 10% of its homeowners net premiums written.
United Fire Group competes with Hanover for small and middle-market businesses’ premiums through independent agencies, selling business packages, commercial auto, workers’ compensation and surety coverage. Its business-package results provide a comparison for Hanover’s coverage of businesses’ property and liability risks.
American Financial Group’s Great American businesses compete with Hanover’s Specialty segment for businesses paying for specialized property and casualty coverage. Their niche-market pricing and policy choices are the relevant comparison, rather than broad personal insurance trends.
RLI competes with Hanover for customers buying specialty property, liability and surety insurance, through both standard authorized policies and excess and surplus coverage. Its results on individually assessed, distinctive risks offer a comparison for Hanover’s specialized coverage rather than its everyday auto business.
Markel Group competes with Hanover for businesses buying specialized coverage through agents and brokers. Watch Markel Insurance’s underwriting profit rather than group investment swings: its specialty competition turns on coverage, expertise and service as well as price.
Skyward Specialty competes with Hanover’s Specialty segment for businesses needing tailored commercial coverage, through both authorized insurers and excess and surplus policies. Its pricing and claims results for risks that standard coverage cannot adequately cover are the most useful comparison.
Arch Capital competes with Hanover for U.S. businesses’ specialty insurance premiums through both admitted and non-admitted insurers. Its U.S. specialty insurance business is the relevant comparison, not its worldwide reinsurance and mortgage insurance operations.
AXIS Capital competes with Hanover for premiums covering directors and officers, professional errors, employment practices and medical liability. Its professional-lines pricing and claims experience provide a focused comparison for Hanover’s professional and executive coverage.
Kinsale competes with Hanover for small and medium-sized businesses paying to insure unusual or hard-to-place property and liability risks in the excess and surplus market. Watch its Small Business Casualty and Commercial Property premiums as comparisons for Hanover’s excess and surplus business.
Selective Insurance Group earningsSIGI
Selective Insurance Group’s report will show how premiums and claims are changing in standard commercial insurance sold through independent agents, a close comparison for The Hanover’s small-business coverage.
Compare Selective Insurance Group’s Standard Commercial Lines premiums written with its underwriting result. Premium growth with a steady result would show demand for agent-sold commercial coverage and prices broadly keeping up with claims; slower premiums or a weaker result would signal mounting pressure from competition for small-business customers, claims costs, or both—conditions that could also make it harder for The Hanover to win or price Core Commercial business.
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. earningsThis company
The Hanover’s report will show whether premium growth in its business lines is keeping pace with claims and catastrophe losses, especially in commercial and personal insurance.
Read premiums written—the premiums from policies sold or renewed—alongside each line’s current-year underwriting result, what remains after that year’s claims and expenses, and watch catastrophe losses. Growing premiums with a steady or improving underwriting result would show that pricing and new business are keeping pace with claims; growing premiums with a weaker result would show that claims are rising faster, so growth is not necessarily becoming underwriting profit.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Hanover’s investment portfolio earns income from its holdings, so changes in interest rates can affect what the company earns as investments mature and funds are reinvested.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can raise income over time as Hanover reinvests maturing holdings at higher yields, though the value of existing investments may fall.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can reduce income over time as Hanover reinvests maturing holdings at lower yields, though the value of existing investments may rise.
The Allstate Corporation earningsALL
Allstate’s report will show whether auto claims costs and homeowners catastrophe losses are weighing on premiums, offering a market comparison for The Hanover’s personal-lines business.
Read Allstate’s auto claims costs against its premiums, and its homeowners catastrophe losses. Auto claims rising faster than premiums, or heavier catastrophe losses, would show greater pressure on personal-lines underwriting and make The Hanover’s own pricing and catastrophe claims especially important to watch; lighter losses would reflect Allstate’s insured areas and would not prove that The Hanover escaped losses.